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  IA-Quinnipiac: Paul & Rubio trail Hillary, but they lead Biden
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Author Topic: IA-Quinnipiac: Paul & Rubio trail Hillary, but they lead Biden  (Read 944 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: May 24, 2013, 05:05:45 am »

This is Quinnipiac's first Iowa poll ever:

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?

45-50 disapprove

If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Marco Rubio the Republican, for whom would you vote?

48-37 Clinton

If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Rand Paul the Republican, for whom would you vote?

46-42 Clinton

If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden the Democrat and Marco Rubio the Republican, for whom would you vote?

40-39 Rubio

If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden the Democrat and Rand Paul the Republican, for whom would you vote?

44-39 Paul

...

From May 15 - 21, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,411 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/iowa/release-detail?ReleaseID=1898
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bballrox4717
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« Reply #1 on: May 24, 2013, 05:36:05 am »

If Biden is trailing Rand Paul of all people, he should be reevaluating his 2016 plans. It's the shame the public thinks so lowly of him as a presidential candidate.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #2 on: May 24, 2013, 07:03:01 am »

Clinton 48%
Rubio 37%

Rubio 40%
Biden 39%

Clinton 46%
Paul 42%

Paul 44%
Biden 39%

Here are some interesting crosstabs:

Clinton vs. Rubio crosstabs:

college grad: Clinton +3
not college grad: Clinton +13
age 18-29: Clinton +19
age 30-44: Clinton +8
age 45-64: Clinton +9
age 65+: Clinton +10

Biden vs. Rubio crosstabs:

college grad: Rubio +8
not college grad: Biden +2
age 18-29: Biden +7
age 30-44: Biden +1
age 45-64: Rubio +4
age 65: Rubio +2

Clinton vs. Paul crosstabs:

college grad: Clinton +7
not college grad: Clinton +4
age 18-29: Paul +4
age 30-44: Clinton +3
age 45-64: Clinton +6
age 65+: Clinton +10

Biden vs. Paul crosstabs:

college grad: Paul +2
not college grad: Paul +7
age 18-29: Paul +7
age 30-44: Paul +6
age 45-64: Paul +7
age 65: Paul +1

Clinton's weakest age group against Rubio is again 30-44 year olds (just barely), again in sharp contrast to Obama, who did markedly worse among olds.

But Paul's strength among youngs is pretty remarkable.  Leading Clinton by 4 among the under 30 bracket(?!?).  Also, Rubio seems to do better among college grads than non-grads, whereas with Paul it's the opposite.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #3 on: May 24, 2013, 07:10:19 am »

The 18-29 Clinton/Paul breakdown must be really off.

Especially if we compare it with Biden/Paul.

Why would young voters vote exactly the opposite way like they did in 2012, just because it's Clinton vs. Paul ?

In 2012, it was O+16 and in in 2008 is was O+25 in this age-group in Iowa.

That doesn't make much sense.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #4 on: May 24, 2013, 07:32:20 am »

The 18-29 Clinton/Paul breakdown must be really off.

Especially if we compare it with Biden/Paul.

Why would young voters vote exactly the opposite way like they did in 2012, just because it's Clinton vs. Paul ?

In 2012, it was O+16 and in in 2008 is was O+25 in this age-group in Iowa.

That doesn't make much sense.

I agree it's most likely off.  PPP's latest national poll had Clinton beating Paul by 21 points among the under 30 age group.  Though that's only 15 points more than she led among the over 65 group, whereas Obama was +23 points among the <30s and -12 points among the >65s for a whopping 35 point differential.  So yes, the age group will presumably shrink (perhaps considerably) without Obama on the ticket, but not as much as shown in this poll.
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King
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« Reply #5 on: May 25, 2013, 03:57:27 pm »

Yeah, Biden's not a winner.
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #6 on: May 28, 2013, 02:44:36 pm »

I still think that young people think that the Paul name is cool. Namely because they might just want to legalize pot and not get into a war we may not be able to win with volunteer forces. Other than that, Paul is just like any other Republican that is at least as conservative as Bush. In fact, Bush was more anti-war than Gore in 2000. Maybe those issues will be enough or maybe things will look different as we get closer.
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Scott
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« Reply #7 on: May 28, 2013, 02:47:50 pm »

I wonder what it is that's keeping Joe down.  Is Hillary the only one people are willing to look past the age thing with?
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #8 on: May 28, 2013, 05:59:45 pm »

I wonder what it is that's keeping Joe down.  Is Hillary the only one people are willing to look past the age thing with?

Biden is seen as something of a buffoon.  Not ready for primetime.
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Marston
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« Reply #9 on: May 28, 2013, 07:16:48 pm »

I suspect that Rand, akin to his father, will/would under perform in Presidential contests.
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