Census 2011: Germany has 80.219.695 inhabitants
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  Census 2011: Germany has 80.219.695 inhabitants
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Author Topic: Census 2011: Germany has 80.219.695 inhabitants  (Read 2569 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: May 24, 2013, 07:54:46 AM »
« edited: May 31, 2013, 09:49:40 AM by Tender Branson »

One thing is already clear: Germany will have MUCH fewer people than what is now estimated (more like 80 Mio. and not 81.6 Mio. like it was estimated on Census Day May 9, 2011).

It will also be interesting to see how the population changed in the Eastern German states, where the last (GDR) Census was in 1981.

There could be really big flaws in the people's registers there, because many young people could have left the states for Western Germany without de-registering. Also, many dead people could still be on the registers. Also, if people moved from abroad to Germany and after a few months/years back to where they came from, without de-registering. And so on ...

Another important thing to watch if Hessen has enough inhabitants not to lose one of its 5 seats in the Bundesrat.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1 on: May 24, 2013, 09:42:27 AM »

Here are the benchmark population estimates for Germany and each state on May 9, 2011 (Census Day):

I calculated them by using the "Statistics Portal" monthly population estimates from 2011 and divided the End-April and End-May figures by 3, and added that to the End-April number.

10.760.000 - Baden-Württemberg
12.548.000 - Bayern
  3.473.000 - Berlin
  2.499.000 - Brandenburg
     660.000 - Bremen
  1.790.000 - Hamburg
  6.071.000 - Hessen
  1.638.000 - Mecklenburg-Vorpommern
  7.915.000 - Niedersachsen
17.836.000 - Nordrhein-Westfalen
  4.000.000 - Rheinland-Pfalz
  1.015.000 - Saarland
  4.140.000 - Sachsen
  2.326.000 - Sachsen-Anhalt
  2.834.000 - Schleswig-Holstein
  2.229.000 - Thüringen

81.734.000 - Germany

...

Here are my projections of what the OFFICIAL Census release will show next Friday:

10.545 - Baden-Württemberg
12.297 - Bayern
  3.369 - Berlin
  2.399 - Brandenburg
     640 - Bremen
  1.736 - Hamburg
  5.950 - Hessen
  1.573 - Mecklenburg-Vorpommern
  7.757 - Niedersachsen
17.479 - Nordrhein-Westfalen
  3.920 - Rheinland-Pfalz
     995 - Saarland
  3.974 - Sachsen
  2.233 - Sachsen-Anhalt
  2.777 - Schleswig-Holstein
  2.140 - Thüringen

79.784 - Germany

...

I assume an average error rate of ca. 2% in West German states, and 4% in East German states and 3% for Berlin compared with the benchmark estimates.

Of course there are always some surprises, but let's see how accurate my predictions are.

Hopefully my overall estimate for Germany is within 500.000 (79.3 million to 80.3 million) and my state estimates are within +/- 1% ... Smiley
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politicus
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« Reply #2 on: May 24, 2013, 01:57:50 PM »

Cant stand the excitement. Its like waiting for Christmas Eve when you were a kid. Has the average weight of Bavarian house wifes gone up? And is the beer consumption of German workers affected by Hartz IV?   
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #3 on: May 24, 2013, 02:24:19 PM »

I'd think the overcount is most likely to be where the transient migrants are - Berlin, Hamburg and the rich Southern states.
There are of course also all sorts of shenanigans with official residency of German young adults (registered where their parents are rather than where they themselves are), but I doubt the Census actually caught that.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4 on: May 25, 2013, 12:33:27 AM »

I'd think the overcount is most likely to be where the transient migrants are - Berlin, Hamburg and the rich Southern states.
There are of course also all sorts of shenanigans with official residency of German young adults (registered where their parents are rather than where they themselves are), but I doubt the Census actually caught that.

No, this Census only counted people where they are registered with their MAIN residence.

In the 1987 Census, people were also counted if they had a secondary residence somewhere.

This is why the current estimated numbers, especially in the big cities, will not match up with the new Census results next week.

The 1987 Census numbers have been fortgeschrieben (projected) to now, using main and secondary residences, therefore inflating the population almost everywhere.

For example, let's take Frankfurt, which according to the projected estimates has close to 700.000 people on Census Day 2011, but actually will have only 650.000 to 680.000 next week, because of the missing secondary residences, for example students - who like you said - are registered at home with their parents at their main residence, but study there. Or migrant workers, who have their main residence in let's say Hungary, but a secondary residence in Frankfurt, or well-off people who own a second or third property in Frankfurt while actually having their main residence in Berlin or so.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5 on: May 25, 2013, 12:51:09 AM »

Lewis, do you know if Hessen will automatically lose its 5th seat in the Bundesrat if it has less than 6 Mio. people, or does it depend on the overall size of the German population as well ?

I have read somewhere that states with more than 6 Mio. people must have 5 seats, but will this criteria change if Germany also has significantly fewer people ?
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #6 on: May 25, 2013, 04:07:25 AM »

No, this Census only counted people where they are registered with their MAIN residence.
It attempted to. They mailed questionnaires to people. People with an official main residence where their parents are going to receive their questionnaire... and most of them are probably going to make the same false claim on the census questionnaire as at the Meldestelle. Remember that, for German citizens, their official main residence doubles as their voter registration... they might not actually live there, but they damn sure receive mail sent to it.

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They might brandish the 700k figure for promotional material, but they do of course do a double count. And you get more detailed breakdowns mostly for the Hauptwohnung only counts (since otherwise a lot of people with two official residences within the city also get double-counted)... which is 667k fortgeschrieben. (Cologne is particularly adamant about putting only the misleading "including second residences" numbers in visible places... they usually have over a million inhabitants in that, as they like to think to have, but have never in fact had in the real numbers.)

I don't know exactly how far off the estimate was from the 1987 count - which was designed to be better at catching misrepresentations - but the 1987 census result for Frankfurt is 5k above the 1986 fortgeschrieben from 1970 numbers, and 1k below the 1988 fortgeschrieben from 1987 numbers.

Re seats: I've looked it up. The seat loss will be automatic.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7 on: May 25, 2013, 07:21:50 AM »

BTW: Frankfurt already changed its reporting style to "Hauptwohnsitz" only in their latest release:

http://www.frankfurt.de/sixcms/media.php/678/07_Bev%C3%B6lkerung_4Q.pdf

678.691 people had their main residence in Frankfurt at the end of 2012, while more than 25.000 additional people had their secondary residence there.

...

We also have double counts here:

For example in Saalbach-Hinterglemm, which is a popular ski-area, there are 2.881 main residences and 4.848 secondary residences (mostly foreigners).
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #8 on: May 25, 2013, 09:20:31 AM »

Cologne is particularly adamant about putting only the misleading "including second residences" numbers in visible places... they usually have over a million inhabitants in that, as they like to think to have, but have never in fact had in the real numbers.

Just checked that:

Cologne has fewer secondary residences than Frankfurt actually. Only 20.000 vs. 25.000 in Frankfurt. Cologne also reports 2 population figures: They passed the million in 2010 and by Census Day it was ca. 1.010.000 with main residence and ca. 1.030.000 with secondary residences.

The Census will show if it really has more or less than 1 Mio., because of the register validations.

10.000 people is not a safe buffer.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #9 on: May 26, 2013, 03:46:37 AM »

Ah, so their population has been growing a good bit over the past decade as well.

And thanks for that link: I just got the point.
The Census of 1987 made an effort to determine whether people's officially secondary residences were really their primary ones, and if clearly so counted them at the secondary one. This meant that more people actually lived in big cities than officially did so. Fortgeschriebene data from 1987 thus include (or subtract) shadow people from the formal main residences count - since there's no way of telling which individuals these were and what became of them over the intervening 25 years or who else did the same thing since.

The 2011 joke procedure does nothing of the kind, and takes people's word for it that they really live at their parents' home in suburbia or rural East Germany. Hence the need to correct, or rather to abandon all pretense at correctness.

My 667k figure was end of 2011 (fortgeschrieben).
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #10 on: May 27, 2013, 08:35:48 AM »

After thinking more about it, I will update my previous estimates because I think the errors will be slightly different (more like 1.75% in Bayern and BW, 2% in other West-German states and 2.25% in East German states, this time incl. Berlin):

10.572.000 - Baden-Württemberg
12.328.000 - Bayern
  3.395.000 - Berlin
  2.443.000 - Brandenburg
     647.000 - Bremen
  1.754.000 - Hamburg
  5.950.000 - Hessen
  1.601.000 - Mecklenburg-Vorpommern
  7.757.000 - Niedersachsen
17.479.000 - Nordrhein-Westfalen
  3.920.000 - Rheinland-Pfalz
     995.000 - Saarland
  4.047.000 - Sachsen
  2.274.000 - Sachsen-Anhalt
  2.777.000 - Schleswig-Holstein
  2.179.000 - Thüringen

80.118.000 - Germany

...

Average error rate for Germany: 1.98%
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Indy Texas
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« Reply #11 on: May 27, 2013, 08:01:09 PM »

Germany seriously hasn't done a Census since 1987?!
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #12 on: May 28, 2013, 12:37:51 AM »

Germany seriously hasn't done a Census since 1987?!

West Germany, yes.

And that was the costly traditional one (where Census takers went from door to door with their questionaires, like it is still done in the US).

In Eastern Germany, the last Census was taken in 1981 ...

So, the new updated data is needed very badly and the statistics folks need it as well to see how they can make the census process even more efficient for the 2021 Census.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #13 on: May 30, 2013, 08:35:45 AM »

Just 1 day anymore ...

I'm already really excited.

The Census databank is already up (without data of course, which starts tomorrow at 11am):

https://ergebnisse.zensus2011.de/?locale=en
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #14 on: May 30, 2013, 08:44:40 AM »

Im Ernst jetzt?
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Leftbehind
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« Reply #15 on: May 30, 2013, 09:04:21 AM »

Cant stand the excitement. Its like waiting for Christmas Eve when you were a kid. Has the average weight of Bavarian house wifes gone up? And is the beer consumption of German workers affected by Hartz IV?   

Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #16 on: May 30, 2013, 09:07:09 AM »


"Seriously ?"

Yes, I'm always very excited when Census-related stuff is released somewhere.

Especially now after 30 years.

Wink
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #17 on: May 31, 2013, 05:16:08 AM »

10.572.000 - Baden-Württemberg
12.328.000 - Bayern
  3.395.000 - Berlin
  2.443.000 - Brandenburg
     647.000 - Bremen
  1.754.000 - Hamburg
  5.950.000 - Hessen
  1.601.000 - Mecklenburg-Vorpommern
  7.757.000 - Niedersachsen
17.479.000 - Nordrhein-Westfalen
  3.920.000 - Rheinland-Pfalz
     995.000 - Saarland
  4.047.000 - Sachsen
  2.274.000 - Sachsen-Anhalt
  2.777.000 - Schleswig-Holstein
  2.179.000 - Thüringen

80.118.000 - Germany

The numbers:

10.487.000 - Baden-Württemberg
12.398.000 - Bayern
  3.292.000 - Berlin
  2.456.000 - Brandenburg
     651.000 - Bremen
  1.707.000 - Hamburg
  5.972.000 - Hessen (fun fact: Hesse retroactively loses and regains the fifth Bundesrat vote - it has grown by more than 28k since census day according to register changes... Effing hilarious.)
  1.610.000 - Mecklenburg-Vorpommern
  7.778.000 - Niedersachsen
17.538.000 - Nordrhein-Westfalen
  3.990.000 - Rheinland-Pfalz
  1.000.000 - Saarland
  4.057.000 - Sachsen
  2.287.000 - Sachsen-Anhalt
  2.800.000 - Schleswig-Holstein
  2.189.000 - Thüringen

80.220.000 - Germany
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #18 on: May 31, 2013, 05:32:10 AM »

change compared to register / compared to Tender's estimate

Schleswig-Holstein -1.2 / +0.8
Hamburg -4.6 / -2.7
Lower Saxony -1.7 / +0.3
Bremen -1.4 / +0.6
NRW -1.7 / +0.3
Hesse -1.6 / +0.4
Rhineland-Pfalz -0.2 / +1.8
Baden-Württemberg -2.5 / -0.8
Bavaria -1.2 / +0.6
Saarland -1.5 / +0.5
Berlin -5.2 / -3.0
Brandenburg -1.7 / +0.5
McPomm -1.7 / +0.6
Saxony -2.0 / +0.2
Saxony-Anhalt -1.7 / +0.6
Thuringia -1.8 / +0.5

Some of this is as I would have predicted - Berlin, Hamburg and Baden-Württemberg as the most overestimated states should have blindingly obvious. Though the extent in Berlin and Hamburg is pretty crass. While you overestimated the eastern states, I would have underestimated them. (Saxony as the most overestimate eastern state is another obvious one. I've checked - the error is most pronounced in Leipzig and Dresden.) Only three quarter of the missing number appear to be transient foreigners of yesteryear, I'd have guessed at closer 90%.
Bavaria is weird to me. That looked like a safe pick for fourth place. Rhineland-Pfalz also sticks out.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #19 on: May 31, 2013, 05:53:53 AM »

Why not? Districts now thought to be with more people in it than we previously thought.

Lübeck city
Neumünster city
Segeberg
Stormarn
Lüchow-Dannenberg
Holzminden
Cloppenburg
Herford
Bielefeld city
Münster city (wtfh?)
Bottrop city
Gelsenkirchen city
Remscheid city
Rheinisch-Bergischer Kreis
Lahn-Dill
Limburg-Weilburg
Westerwald
Koblenz city
Mayen-Koblenz
Cochem-Zell
Rhine-Hunsrück
Bernkastel-Wittlich
Daun "Vulkaneifel"
Bitburg-Prüm
Trier city
Trier-Saarburg
Mainz city
Alzey-Worms
Donnersberg
Kusel
Kaiserslautern rural
Pirmasens city
Zweibrücken city
Aschaffenburg rural
Miltenberg
Schweinfurt rural
Weißenburg-Gunzenhausen
Neustadt-Windsheim
Fürth city
Bamberg city
Tirschenreuth
Landshut city
Augsburg city
Memmingen city
Kempten city
Greifswald (now former) city
Jena city

Some of this actually makes sense (the two East German uni towns would not of course have the West German problem of this census' comparatively lower accuracy. The phenomenon involved did not yet exist there when the last census was taken.)

A note on Bavaria: Both things happened. The growth region around Munich was not as heavily overstated as that around Stuttgart. And the state includes a lot of hinterland with the reverse trend. And a third thing happened: Swabia stands out in the same inexplicable way that Rhineland-Pfalz does. Maybe it's just a competence issue...
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #20 on: May 31, 2013, 06:55:17 AM »

Fun fact: population belonging to the big Catholic and Lutheran churches.

overall: 38.9% neither, 30.8% Catholics, 30.3% Lutherans
By gender: Men 42% neither, 29.8% Catholics, 28.2% Lutherans
Women 35.8% neither, 32.4% Lutherans, 31.8% Catholics
By citizenship: German citizens 36.2% neither, 32.5% Lutherans, 31.3% Catholics
noncitizens 69.4% neither, 26.6% Catholics, 4.0% Lutherans
By age: <18 41.5% neither, 29.9% Catholics, 28.6% Lutherans
18-29 38.8% neither, 31.4% Catholics, 29.8% Lutherans
30-49 44.0% neither, 29.4% Catholics, 26.6% Lutherans
50-64 41.0% neither, 30.6% Catholics, 28.4% Lutherans
65+ 39.2% Lutherans, 33.5% Catholics, 27.3% neither
The median age for Lutherans would appear to be 49. (Catholics 46 or 47 or so, neithers about 40.) Those 65 in 2011 were 21 old in 1967, of course. Small wonder that's the major break.
Church members would appear to still outbreed unchurched people (and by 18-29 not everyone who intends to get out has already done so.)
But very interesting about women's higher church retention rate - or is that just the higher life expectancy showing? I wonder how that correlated with marital status.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #21 on: May 31, 2013, 09:38:20 AM »

change compared to register / compared to Tender's estimate

Schleswig-Holstein -1.2 / +0.8
Hamburg -4.6 / -2.7
Lower Saxony -1.7 / +0.3
Bremen -1.4 / +0.6
NRW -1.7 / +0.3
Hesse -1.6 / +0.4
Rhineland-Pfalz -0.2 / +1.8
Baden-Württemberg -2.5 / -0.8
Bavaria -1.2 / +0.6
Saarland -1.5 / +0.5
Berlin -5.2 / -3.0
Brandenburg -1.7 / +0.5
McPomm -1.7 / +0.6
Saxony -2.0 / +0.2
Saxony-Anhalt -1.7 / +0.6
Thuringia -1.8 / +0.5

Ha, my Germany-estimate was within 100.000 and I got my goal of being withing 1% in my state estimates right in 13 out of 16 states. Only Berlin, Hamburg and RP were beyond my 1% goal.

After thinking further, I should have used a higher error rate for Berlin and Hamburg, considering they are huge cities with many foreigners.

RP was really unexpected.

And the Eastern states did not do as bad with the missing people. Maybe their registers weren't so outdated and flawed after all.

It seems that out of the 1.5 million people that were too much in the previous estimates, only 400K were from Germans and 1.1 Mio. from foreigners.

So, the German population only had an error rate of slightly more than 0.5%, while the foreigner population had an error rate of ca. 15% !

Very likely many of those just went home to their countries without de-registering.

Also, 1.9% of the population is Muslim - but that is probably too low, because the Religion question was voluntary and many people likely opted for "none" or "not stated".
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #22 on: May 31, 2013, 09:45:47 AM »

That happens when you basically pose a question of "are you a member of the two big state-entrenched religious organizations yes/no/other (write in)".
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #23 on: May 31, 2013, 09:47:51 AM »

Religion by West/East:

West: 74% Christians, 6% Other Religions, 6% No Religion, 13% Not Stated
East: 27% Christians, 1% Other Religions, 33% No Religion, 39% Not Stated

Germany: 67% Christians, 5% Other Religions, 11% No Religion, 17% Not Stated

Those godless East-Germans ... Wink
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #24 on: May 31, 2013, 09:51:19 AM »

They already published the new end-2011 estimate based on the May 2011 Census:

80.327.900

End-2012 is not yet ready, but maybe in the next months. Likely a gain of ca. 200.000 people, because of a immigration saldo of +400.000 and a birth/death deficit of -200.000
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