Is New York 2006 the Democratic answer to Texas 1994?

[2952-0-0]

It's already clear that Pataki will be swept out by Spitzer by, say, 70-30? And in that case, I would expect the state senate to go Democratic and basically solidifying the Empire State's statewide offices for the Democrats. So do you think this could happen?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

This has already happened with Illinois 2002, but it could happen here as well.

[The Dowager Mod]

Yes and they need a little "creative" redistricting like Texas.

[KEmperor]

Yes and they need a little "creative" redistricting like Texas.

New York is not really easily gerrymandered if you want to add more democratic seats.  You could maybe squeeze 2 or 3 more out, tops.  Besides, the Republican majority in the state Senate isn't going anywhere soon.

[Rob]

Besides, the Republican majority in the state Senate isn't going anywhere soon.

That's what they said about the Democrats in Texas

[YRABNNRM]

It's already clear that Pataki will be swept out by Spitzer by, say, 70-30? And in that case, I would expect the state senate to go Democratic and basically solidifying the Empire State's statewide offices for the Democrats. So do you think this could happen?

70-30? Are you serious?

[Smash255]

It's already clear that Pataki will be swept out by Spitzer by, say, 70-30? And in that case, I would expect the state senate to go Democratic and basically solidifying the Empire State's statewide offices for the Democrats. So do you think this could happen?

70-30? Are you serious?

70-30 might be a stretch, but Pataki's approval is at 34%, THIRTY-FOUR%.  The CLOSEST poll in the last couple months has him losing by 22.  My guess would be between 63-37 to 67-33.  As far as the statewide office goes, the Dems may not sweep in but they probably will pick up a few seats.  Most of the Republicans are more moderate anyway so thats probably their saving point otherwise they would be sweeped out.

[Erc]

If he runs, Pataki would recover in the polls somewhat.  That's inevitable.  He'd end up losing 56-44, but he wouldn't lose as badly as the polls suggest.

Any Tom Golisano rumors for '06?

[Smash255]

If he runs, Pataki would recover in the polls somewhat.  That's inevitable.  He'd end up losing 56-44, but he wouldn't lose as badly as the polls suggest.

Any Tom Golisano rumors for '06?

Pataki will probably lose as bad as the polls suggest.  What exactly does he have thats going good for him that will help him in the polls?  He will lose by AT LEAST 20 probably in the 25 point range

[Erc]

Anyone remember how he was polling back at this point in 2001?

[Hitchabrut]

Probably. It's ironic how this occurence is easier in large states than in small states.

[Defarge]

Pataki may well lose, but the Republicans will keep their hold on the State Senate for at least the next decade.  In 2006, with Spitzer's Reform under the Democratic Party message, we may well pick up a seat or two, maybe even Nick Spano's seat (17 VOTES ), but don't hold your breath on Dems taking the state senate.  It simply won't happen.  NY is getting bluer thanks to the crazy Republicans outside of the North East, but it won't become completely Democratic, a la Texas.

[KEmperor]

Pataki may well lose, but the Republicans will keep their hold on the State Senate for at least the next decade.  In 2006, with Spitzer's Reform under the Democratic Party message, we may well pick up a seat or two, maybe even Nick Spano's seat (17 VOTES ), but don't hold your breath on Dems taking the state senate.  It simply won't happen.  NY is getting bluer thanks to the crazy Republicans outside of the North East, but it won't become completely Democratic, a la Texas.

Indeed.

[Notre Dame rules!]

Texasgurl,

Are you kidding?  The Dem mafiosa squeezed out Nita Loewe(sp) to make room for Hillary back in 2000.  They made her an offer she couldn't refuse.  Get out of the race and let Hillary run unopposed, or sleep with the fishes.

[Alcon]

Texasgurl,

Are you kidding?  The Dem mafiosa squeezed out Nita Loewe(sp) to make room for Hillary back in 2000.  They made her an offer she couldn't refuse.  Get out of the race and let Hillary run unopposed, or sleep with the fishes.

Did they actually threaten to kill her, or are you going intentionally overboard?

[Defarge]

Aside of course from the fact that Lowey (my congresswoman) knew that she would lose overwhelmingly in a primary fight.

[King]

It's already clear that Pataki will be swept out by Spitzer by, say, 70-30?

LOL

Current Prediction
Spitzer 51%
Pataki 40%
Other 9%

[2952-0-0]

It's already clear that Pataki will be swept out by Spitzer by, say, 70-30?

LOL

Current Prediction
Spitzer 51%
Pataki 40%
Other 9%

I was being blind.

[Smash255]

Anyone remember how he was polling back at this point in 2001?

Not sure, by exactly how much, but he was leading the polls by a comfortable margin 10+ possibly 20

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Yes and they need a little "creative" redistricting like Texas.

New York is not really easily gerrymandered if you want to add more democratic seats.  You could maybe squeeze 2 or 3 more out, tops.  Besides, the Republican majority in the state Senate isn't going anywhere soon.

4 more would be easy, 5 reasonably possible, and if you make spaghetti districts, then 9 more (eliminating all Republicans).

[The Duke]

They're not really analagous at all.

Texas was a truly Democratic state, and all of a sudden it changed.  It was Democrat at the state level, had a majority Democrat congressional delegation, its Senators (Tower, Gramm) were both Democrats in the early 90s and late 80s, Democrats held both chambers of the legislature, and the Governorship always went Democrat.

Then all of a sudden it flipped completely.

Does New York have a history of Republican Senators?  Governors?  Who holds the lower house of the legislature?  How about your house delegation?

New York is a Democrat state temporarily held by the GOP and is now going back Democrat.  Texas was a Democrat state that became a GOP stronghold.

[Nym90]

They're not really analagous at all.

Texas was a truly Democratic state, and all of a sudden it changed. It was Democrat at the state level, had a majority Democrat congressional delegation, its Senators (Tower, Gramm) were both Democrats in the early 90s and late 80s, Democrats held both chambers of the legislature, and the Governorship always went Democrat.

Then all of a sudden it flipped completely.

Does New York have a history of Republican Senators? Governors? Who holds the lower house of the legislature? How about your house delegation?

New York is a Democrat state temporarily held by the GOP and is now going back Democrat. Texas was a Democrat state that became a GOP stronghold.

Tower and Gramm were both Republicans when they were in the Senate. Gramm was a Democrat originally in the House, but switched to the GOP while still in the House.

But Lloyd Bentsen, a Democrat, was a senator from Texas from 1971-1993.

[patrick1]

It's already clear that Pataki will be swept out by Spitzer by, say, 70-30? And in that case, I would expect the state senate to go Democratic and basically solidifying the Empire State's statewide offices for the Democrats. So do you think this could happen?

70-30? Are you serious?

In the words of John McEnroe.  YOU CANNOT BE SERIOUS!!!!!.  Pataki will most likely lose but nowhere near that amount.  You have a lot of Republicans (like myself) who do not particularly like Pataki but will vote for him rather than Spitzer.  I wouldn't call this the answer to Texas 1994 either.  Better comparision is to New York 1994.- Once popular and well liked New York Governor overstaying his welcome.  Most New Yorkers can't single out an issue why they dislike Pataki- I think most are just tired of him by now.  Long Island is still dominated on the State Senate level by Republicans- many of these guys are very well liked and I don't see the Dems gaining a foothold.  The state senate districts are also drawn in a way and long Island is configured in such a way that makes gerrymandering verrrry difficult.  At least in Nassau all of the minority(those most loyal to Dems)  are concentrated together.  The rest of White Nassau is traditionally Republican dominated.  These are people who have somehat drifted away from some of the National G.O.P. stances and candidates but still remain loyal to the GOP locally.   

[Defarge]

It's already clear that Pataki will be swept out by Spitzer by, say, 70-30? And in that case, I would expect the state senate to go Democratic and basically solidifying the Empire State's statewide offices for the Democrats. So do you think this could happen?

70-30? Are you serious?

In the words of John McEnroe.  YOU CANNOT BE SERIOUS!!!!!.  Pataki will most likely lose but nowhere near that amount.  You have a lot of Republicans (like myself) who do not particularly like Pataki but will vote for him rather than Spitzer.  I wouldn't call this the answer to Texas 1994 either.  Better comparision is to New York 1994.- Once popular and well liked New York Governor overstaying his welcome.  Most New Yorkers can't single out an issue why they dislike Pataki- I think most are just tired of him by now.  Long Island is still dominated on the State Senate level by Republicans- many of these guys are very well liked and I don't see the Dems gaining a foothold.  The state senate districts are also drawn in a way and long Island is configured in such a way that makes gerrymandering verrrry difficult.  At least in Nassau all of the minority(those most loyal to Dems)  are concentrated together.  The rest of White Nassau is traditionally Republican dominated.  These are people who have somehat drifted away from some of the National G.O.P. stances and candidates but still remain loyal to the GOP locally.   

How's the snow out in Long Island Patrick?  I hear you're expecting like 9 inches.  Speaking of which, where is the Naso Winter Roundtable when you need it?

[patrick1]

It's already clear that Pataki will be swept out by Spitzer by, say, 70-30? And in that case, I would expect the state senate to go Democratic and basically solidifying the Empire State's statewide offices for the Democrats. So do you think this could happen?

70-30? Are you serious?

In the words of John McEnroe.  YOU CANNOT BE SERIOUS!!!!!.  Pataki will most likely lose but nowhere near that amount.  You have a lot of Republicans (like myself) who do not particularly like Pataki but will vote for him rather than Spitzer.  I wouldn't call this the answer to Texas 1994 either.  Better comparision is to New York 1994.- Once popular and well liked New York Governor overstaying his welcome.  Most New Yorkers can't single out an issue why they dislike Pataki- I think most are just tired of him by now.  Long Island is still dominated on the State Senate level by Republicans- many of these guys are very well liked and I don't see the Dems gaining a foothold.  The state senate districts are also drawn in a way and long Island is configured in such a way that makes gerrymandering verrrry difficult.  At least in Nassau all of the minority(those most loyal to Dems)  are concentrated together.  The rest of White Nassau is traditionally Republican dominated.  These are people who have somehat drifted away from some of the National G.O.P. stances and candidates but still remain loyal to the GOP locally.   

How's the snow out in Long Island Patrick?  I hear you're expecting like 9 inches.  Speaking of which, where is the Naso Winter Roundtable when you need it?

Probably only like 3 inches right now.  Roads are pretty bad.  It took me forever to drive home form Hofstra tonight.  On the bright side my second class of the night was cancelled.  Sam Champion doesn't have $hit on me:)