*bump*
I'd say....
Catholic = 43% probability
Mormon = 30% probability (this is mostly because of the remaining probability that Romney pulls it out next month)
Mainline Protestant = 20% probability (the biggest contributor here being Hillary Clinton)
Evangelical = 5% probability
something else = 2% probability
I feel like Evangelical should be higher, but I'm struggling to think of any Evangelical 2016 candidates who could plausibly win. None of the likely Democratic candidates are Evangelicals, are they? On the GOP side, the potential 2016ers who are Evangelical would be.....who? Pence, Perry, Thune, Walker? I think there's an outside chance of Cruz running, and he's an Evangelical, isn't he? In any case, the collective probability of all of those guys being the next president isn't very great.
*bump*
Well, Romney lost, and Hillary Clinton's public signals on whether she's going to run have changed quite a bit since October, so she definitely looks more likely to run now. So it's largely between Mainline Protestant and Catholic, with Clinton being being the main Mainline Protestant and Catholic being most of the rest of the field.
Walker's the most likely Evangelical now.
Maybe:
Catholic = 53% probability
Mainline Protestant = 40% probability
Evangelical = 5% probability
something else = 2% probability
Poll
