A Political Fable 2: A Good Day to Vote Hard

[badgate]

XXIII: Be Mine


Tuesday, February 6, 2024


Democratic Primary


TX Governor Julian Castro 44%
KY Senator Alison Lundergan Grimes 21%
NY Senator Kirsten Gillibrand 18%
NJ Senator Cory Booker 9%
WI Senator Tammy Baldwin 5%
HI Governor Tulsi Gabbard 2%
TX Senator Joaquin Castro 1%


Republican Primary


Vice President Scott Walker 47%
WV Governor Shelley Moore Capito 30%
AK Governor Sarah Palin 9%
SC Senator Tim Scott 9%
FL Senator Marco Rubio 4%
PA Senator Pat Toomey 1%





Democratic Caucus


KY Senator Alison Lundergan Grimes 51%
NY Senator Kirsten Gillibrand 18%
TX Governor Julian Castro 17%
NJ Senator Cory Booker 14%
WI Senator Tammy Baldwin 0%
HI Governor Tulsi Gabbard 0%
TX Senator Joaquin Castro 0%


Republican Caucus


AK Governor Sarah Palin 55%
Vice President Scott Walker 31%
WV Governor Shelley Moore Capito 14%
PA Senator Pat Toomey 0%
SC Senator Tim Scott 0%
FL Senator Marco Rubio 0%


Saturday, February 10, 2024


Democratic Caucus


TX Governor Julian Castro 58%
NY Senator Kirsten Gillibrand 20%
KY Senator Alison Lundergan Grimes 16%
WI Senator Tammy Baldwin 6%
NJ Senator Cory Booker 0%
HI Governor Tulsi Gabbard 0%
TX Senator Joaquin Castro 0%


Republican Caucus


FL Senator Marco Rubio 46%
AK Governor Sarah Palin 27%
Vice President Scott Walker 20%
WV Governor Shelley Moore Capito 7%
PA Senator Pat Toomey 0%
SC Senator Tim Scott 0%



Thursday, February 15, 2024

Scott Challenges Field on Education in Pre-SC Debate
Tim Scott is expected to win his first primary state this Saturday, but it doesn't seem to be his one-hit wonder or his launchpad for a campaign all the way to the RNC. South Carolina, after all, is his home state, and he has been leading GOP frontrunner Scott Walker by about 3 points for a month. So tonight at the debate, it seemed like Scott was the underdog gasping for breath. Scott challenged Walker on both his Education plan, accusing him of pandering to Teacher unions, and his support of the Ayotte administration in the wake of last fall's incidents with China.



Saturday, February 17, 2024


Democratic Primary


NY Senator Kirsten Gillibrand 35%
NJ Senator Cory Booker 21%
KY Senator Alison Lundergan Grimes 21%
TX Governor Julian Castro 12%
TX Senator Joaquin Castro 6%
WI Senator Tammy Baldwin 3%
HI Governor Tulsi Gabbard 2%


Republican Primary


SC Senator Tim Scott 51%
Vice President Scott Walker 22%
WV Governor Shelley Moore Capito 14%
AK Governor Sarah Palin 7%
FL Senator Marco Rubio 3%
PA Senator Pat Toomey 3%



Tuesday, February 20, 2024




Democratic Primary


KY Senator Alison Lundergan Grimes 33%
NJ Senator Cory Booker 32%
NY Senator Kirsten Gillibrand 18%
TX Governor Julian Castro 10%
TX Senator Joaquin Castro 3%
WI Senator Tammy Baldwin 2%
HI Governor Tulsi Gabbard 2%


Republican Primary


SC Senator Tim Scott 44%
WV Governor Shelley Moore Capito 21%
Vice President Scott Walker 21%
AK Governor Sarah Palin 8%
FL Senator Marco Rubio 3%
PA Senator Pat Toomey 3%



Wednesday, February 21, 2024

SAY GOODBYE: Post-Carolinas Produce Slew of Presidential Exits


Pennsylvania Senator Pat Toomey
---

Wisconsin Senator Tammy Baldwin
---

Hawai'i Governor Tulsi Gabbard
---

Texas Senator Joaquin Castro



Tuesday, Feburary 27, 2024


Democratic Primary

TX Governor Julian Castro 56%
NY Senator Kirsten Gillibrand 27%
KY Senator Alison Lundergan Grimes 11%
NJ Senator Cory Booker 6%


Republican Primary

AK Governor Sarah Palin 39%
FL Senator Marco Rubio 38.5%
Vice President Scott Walker 11.5%
WV Governor Shelley Moore Capito 9%
SC Senator Tim Scott 2%





Democratic Primary

NY Senator Kirsten Gillibrand 29%
KY Senator Alison Lundergan Grimes 26%
NJ Senator Cory Booker 26%
TX Governor Julian Castro 19%


Republican Primary

WV Governor Shelley Moore Capito 37%
Vice President Scott Walker 36%
AK Governor Sarah Palin 15%
FL Senator Marco Rubio 12%
SC Senator Tim Scott 2%

[badgate]

XXIII: Be Mine, contd.


Tuesday, February 28, 2024

Booker Leaves Presidential Race

Democratic Primary Map

Governor Julian Castro
Senator Kirsten Gillibrand
Senator Alison Lundergan Grimes

Republican Primary Map

Vice President Scott Walker
Governor Shelley Moore Capito
Senator Marco Rubio
Governor Sarah Palin
Senator Tim Scott

[Enderman]

Hmm... This is a tough one with the Republicans... Rubio, Walker, Palin or Scott...

I predict a West Wing 2006 Election happening with Castro, Grimes and Gillibrand...

[PolitiJunkie]

Hmm... This is a tough one with the Republicans... Rubio, Walker, Palin or Scott...

I predict a West Wing 2006 Election happening with Castro, Grimes and Gillibrand...

Are you comparing the candidates, or the idea of a brokered convention? If you are comparing the candidates, I think the comparison is weak. Russell was a seasoned politician viewed as next in line, Hoynes was a politican marred by scandal, and Santos was a young, inexperienced ethnic politician with incredible oratory skills who ultimately won. The obvious comparison here is the 2008 Democratic Primary with Russell being Clinton, Santos being Obama, and Hoynes being Edwards. And of course, there are more comparisons: Santos picking Leo, a seasoned party insider to balance his youth, race, and inexperience, is similar to Obama picking Biden. Vinick, an older, long-term Senator Maverick from a western state lines up nicely with McCain, and Vinick picking Russell, a socially conservative Governor from a small state rich in a natural resource, aligns with McCain picking Palin. In this timeline, Castro has been a Governor for 6 or 10 years (can't remember if he was elected in 2014 or 2018), Grimes has been a Senator for 4-10 years (can't remember if she was elected in 2014, 2018, or 2020), and Gillibrand has been an incumbent Senator for 14 years. None of them are marred by scandal, none are viewed as next in line, none are super inexperienced, etc. So the Santos/Russell/Hoynes comparison is not there. If you are talking about the possibility of a brokered convention, then yes, that's a possibility.

[Niemeyerite]

Gillibrand/Lundergan Grimes would make my day.

[Enderman]

Hmm... This is a tough one with the Republicans... Rubio, Walker, Palin or Scott...

I predict a West Wing 2006 Election happening with Castro, Grimes and Gillibrand...

Are you comparing the candidates, or the idea of a brokered convention? If you are comparing the candidates, I think the comparison is weak. Russell was a seasoned politician viewed as next in line, Hoynes was a politican marred by scandal, and Santos was a young, inexperienced ethnic politician with incredible oratory skills who ultimately won. The obvious comparison here is the 2008 Democratic Primary with Russell being Clinton, Santos being Obama, and Hoynes being Edwards. And of course, there are more comparisons: Santos picking Leo, a seasoned party insider to balance his youth, race, and inexperience, is similar to Obama picking Biden. Vinick, an older, long-term Senator Maverick from a western state lines up nicely with McCain, and Vinick picking Russell, a socially conservative Governor from a small state rich in a natural resource, aligns with McCain picking Palin. In this timeline, Castro has been a Governor for 6 or 10 years (can't remember if he was elected in 2014 or 2018), Grimes has been a Senator for 4-10 years (can't remember if she was elected in 2014, 2018, or 2020), and Gillibrand has been an incumbent Senator for 14 years. None of them are marred by scandal, none are viewed as next in line, none are super inexperienced, etc. So the Santos/Russell/Hoynes comparison is not there. If you are talking about the possibility of a brokered convention, then yes, that's a possibility.

I was thinking Santos = Castro, a Young, Democrat from Texas, Hoynes = Grimes, a not so popular Senator IIIRC,  and Russel = Gillibrand, a more likely presidential candidate that's giving Castro a run for his money... If anything its 2008 all over again... (oh and for bonus points, Palin = Vinick a westerner that is criticized greatly in her party because of her "extreme" views...)

[PolitiJunkie]

Hmm... This is a tough one with the Republicans... Rubio, Walker, Palin or Scott...

I predict a West Wing 2006 Election happening with Castro, Grimes and Gillibrand...

Are you comparing the candidates, or the idea of a brokered convention? If you are comparing the candidates, I think the comparison is weak. Russell was a seasoned politician viewed as next in line, Hoynes was a politican marred by scandal, and Santos was a young, inexperienced ethnic politician with incredible oratory skills who ultimately won. The obvious comparison here is the 2008 Democratic Primary with Russell being Clinton, Santos being Obama, and Hoynes being Edwards. And of course, there are more comparisons: Santos picking Leo, a seasoned party insider to balance his youth, race, and inexperience, is similar to Obama picking Biden. Vinick, an older, long-term Senator Maverick from a western state lines up nicely with McCain, and Vinick picking Russell, a socially conservative Governor from a small state rich in a natural resource, aligns with McCain picking Palin. In this timeline, Castro has been a Governor for 6 or 10 years (can't remember if he was elected in 2014 or 2018), Grimes has been a Senator for 4-10 years (can't remember if she was elected in 2014, 2018, or 2020), and Gillibrand has been an incumbent Senator for 14 years. None of them are marred by scandal, none are viewed as next in line, none are super inexperienced, etc. So the Santos/Russell/Hoynes comparison is not there. If you are talking about the possibility of a brokered convention, then yes, that's a possibility.

I was thinking Santos = Castro, a Young, Democrat from Texas, Hoynes = Grimes, a not so popular Senator IIIRC,  and Russel = Gillibrand, a more likely presidential candidate that's giving Castro a run for his money... If anything its 2008 all over again... (oh and for bonus points, Palin = Vinick a westerner that is criticized greatly in her party because of her "extreme" views...)

But Vinick was criticized within the party for his moderate views, not extreme ones. Also the Grimes and Hoynes comparison is off. First of all, we have no reason to believe Grimes is unpopular. And Hoynes had resigned the Vice Presidency due to a sex scandal, making his experience totally different than Grimes's. I think you're forcing a comparison that just isn't there.

[Enderman]

Hmm... This is a tough one with the Republicans... Rubio, Walker, Palin or Scott...

I predict a West Wing 2006 Election happening with Castro, Grimes and Gillibrand...

Are you comparing the candidates, or the idea of a brokered convention? If you are comparing the candidates, I think the comparison is weak. Russell was a seasoned politician viewed as next in line, Hoynes was a politican marred by scandal, and Santos was a young, inexperienced ethnic politician with incredible oratory skills who ultimately won. The obvious comparison here is the 2008 Democratic Primary with Russell being Clinton, Santos being Obama, and Hoynes being Edwards. And of course, there are more comparisons: Santos picking Leo, a seasoned party insider to balance his youth, race, and inexperience, is similar to Obama picking Biden. Vinick, an older, long-term Senator Maverick from a western state lines up nicely with McCain, and Vinick picking Russell, a socially conservative Governor from a small state rich in a natural resource, aligns with McCain picking Palin. In this timeline, Castro has been a Governor for 6 or 10 years (can't remember if he was elected in 2014 or 2018), Grimes has been a Senator for 4-10 years (can't remember if she was elected in 2014, 2018, or 2020), and Gillibrand has been an incumbent Senator for 14 years. None of them are marred by scandal, none are viewed as next in line, none are super inexperienced, etc. So the Santos/Russell/Hoynes comparison is not there. If you are talking about the possibility of a brokered convention, then yes, that's a possibility.

I was thinking Santos = Castro, a Young, Democrat from Texas, Hoynes = Grimes, a not so popular Senator IIIRC,  and Russel = Gillibrand, a more likely presidential candidate that's giving Castro a run for his money... If anything its 2008 all over again... (oh and for bonus points, Palin = Vinick a westerner that is criticized greatly in her party because of her "extreme" views...)

But Vinick was criticized within the party for his moderate views, not extreme ones. Also the Grimes and Hoynes comparison is off. First of all, we have no reason to believe Grimes is unpopular. And Hoynes had resigned the Vice Presidency due to a sex scandal, making his experience totally different than Grimes's. I think you're forcing a comparison that just isn't there.

True... Actually it is more like 2008 redeux than anything...

[badgate]

Much as I love talking about The West Wing, Vinick's VP was West Virginia Governor Ray Sullivan.

[Enderman]

Much as I love talking about The West Wing, Vinick's VP was West Virginia Governor Ray Sullivan.

Well thats a connection!

[badgate]

Much as I love talking about The West Wing, Vinick's VP was West Virginia Governor Ray Sullivan.

Well thats a connection!

PolitiJunkie had accidentally called Vinick's VP "Russell" lol


And to clear it up, Grimes was elected in '14 and Castro in '18.

[Enderman]

Much as I love talking about The West Wing, Vinick's VP was West Virginia Governor Ray Sullivan.

Well thats a connection!

PolitiJunkie had accidentally called Vinick's VP "Russell" lol


And to clear it up, Grimes was elected in '14 and Castro in '18.

Okay... Hey I have a question... Where's Paul Ryan, how's he doing? And what about Cantor? And McDonnell?

[badgate]

Cantor was assassinated on page 3.


Ryan had a failed campaign in 2016, and has since resigned to the House leadership track. He is currently House Republican Conference chair. I never even considered using McDonnell; I just assume that, like in real life, he left office amid toxic scandal in '14 and went to the private sector, never to be heard from again.

[Enderman]

Cantor was assassinated on page 3.


Ryan had a failed campaign in 2016, and has since resigned to the House leadership track. He is currently House Republican Conference chair. I never even considered using McDonnell; I just assume that, like in real life, he left office amid toxic scandal in '14 and went to the private sector, never to be heard from again.

Oh yeah... anyways what about Walker? what did he do before the 2024 Election?

[PolitiJunkie]

Much as I love talking about The West Wing, Vinick's VP was West Virginia Governor Ray Sullivan.

Well thats a connection!

PolitiJunkie had accidentally called Vinick's VP "Russell" lol


And to clear it up, Grimes was elected in '14 and Castro in '18.

Yeah whoops, I meant Sullivan. I thought the Palin comparison was made clear when I said "a socially conservative governor of a small state rich in a natural resource."

[badgate]

XXIV: TIME Magazine: The Candidates special issue




The Candidates: A look at the candidates in a patchwork primary

Texas Governor Julían Castro

Who? Julian Castro has served as Governor of Texas since taking office in January 2019. Before being elected Governor, he was Mayor of Texas city San Antonio for a decade.

What? Castro has focused his campaign on universal pre-k, and education reforms. He passed it to great success in Texas during his first regular session. The following regular session, in 2021, saw his retail regulation push go up in flames due to bad messaging and the legislation being pushed too far left by outspoken state Sen. Sean Hubbard. The bill was meant to reduce the amount of government assistance retail employees rely on by pushing companies to make full-time employees "because every full-time employee is a full-time consumer," Castro said in his 2021 State of the State speech. Castro has kept these economic principles central to his stump speech.

Why? Castro has the unique circumstance of possibly being the first latino President, also making him the third in a line of historical "first" Presidents. But Castro is not running for those reasons, he said in a town hall speech the night before Super Tuesday. "I'm running for President for different reasons than in 2020. We now need a path out of the Ayotte recession, and we must address the issue of income inequality and the abuse of undermployed workers. Back in Texas, we worked to make the government as lean and efficient as possible. I'm running for President to bring that leadership and drive and ingenuity across the country."

West Virginia Governor Shelley Moore Capito

Who? The Governor of West Virginia since 2020, after serving a term in the Senate and a lengthier tenure in the House. Shelley Moore Capito is seen as the "Chris Christie," the electable moderate that nobody will nominate of 2024. But she's in it for the long haul.

What? Capito has made a concerted appeal for middle-of-the-road financial and kitchen table issues. Obamacare, which has a 65% favorable rating nationwide, has been all but praised by the candidate. Capito doesn't miss a chance to say she opposed it, she is one of the few Republicans who has released a health care plan not consisting of six vague bullet points. Talking about income inequality, a generous minimum wage hike, and corporate tax decrease over 4 years in New Hampshire, or the need to provide an option in the Obamacare markets that isn't profit-oriented in Michigan, Capito has genuine passion for her policies. That could be enough for her to one by one pick off the fractured GOP field.

Why? Capito is in excellent health according to her practitioner in West Virginia, but she shocked many of her supporters when she made a one term pledge during the final GOP debate before Super Tuesday. Many have speculated that President Kelly Ayotte may prefer the idea of a President Capito followed by eight years of the "young, conservative" VP she intends to choose.

New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand

Who? It was fitting and symmetrical last winter when Hillary Clinton endorsed Gillibrand for President. Kirsten Gillibrand has been a leader of the Democrats in the Senate since she took office in 2009 following Hillary Clinton's transfer to the Secretary of State's office. Gillibrand was considered a Blue Dog when she was in the House of Representatives, from 2007 to 2009. She is a member of the New Democrats and Progressive caucuses since joining the US Senate.

What? Gillibrand is well known for her changes to military policy since becoming a Senator. In 2018, when Armed Services Committee Chairman Bill Nelson retired, she became the chair of the committee and passed a sexual assault reform package that flew through the newly minted Democratic House. She developed an early reputation in this area by being instrumental in "Don't Ask, Don't Tell"s repeal in December 2010. Three years later, she publicly warred with Armed Services chair Carl Levin over dueling sexual assault reform bills. Levin's bill ultimately passed and Levin, along with Sen. Claire McCaskill, successfully tabled Gillibrand's chain of command amendment on the floor of the Senate. While sexual assault dropped 40% in one year after Levin's bill was implemented, it then dropped 79% after Gillibrand finally got her policy in place in 2019. Major military and veteran groups oppose Gillibrand vehemently, and were a major part of her failure to secure the nomination in 2020. For her part, Gillibrand has only made the military a single tenet in her six-focus campaign. The other priorities she has campaigned on have been a public option and end to the Obamacare mandate, bank reform, and an expansion of the Electoral and Voting Ability Act, passed originally by President Ayotte in her second term. The bill will need to be reauthorized within the first 6 months of the next Presidential term.

Why? Gillibrand has served in state-wide office for much longer than either of her competitors. She has high regional appeal in the upper midwest (crucial against Scott Walker or Shelley Capito) but a folksy populist tone that won her South Carolina and could get her some southern pick-ups in the general. Though we are not yet endorsing a candidate in the primaries, heading into Super Tuesday....Gillibrand is the horse to bet on.

Vice President Scott Walker

Who? Scott Walker became one of the most famous and popular Vice Presidents in history when he resigned following the division over the 2020 Presidential election results. Taking 18 months for R & R, he then accepted a tour of paid speeches in 2022 and early 2023 before launching his second Presidential campaign. Memory has mostly faded of his tumultuous Wisconsin Governorship, where he passed controversial and mostly now-impotent laws against abortion rights, unions, teachers, and basically everybody who votes.

What? The former Vice President hasn't staked out any particular policy areas that will define his candidacy, and has been running as a legacy for President Ayotte and a continuation of her "steady hands." Since the death of Secretary of State Eric Cantor and withdrawal of Sec. of Defense Lindsay Graham, Walker easily assumed the position of incumbent in the primary makeup.

Why? According to a recent ad by Tim Scott's campaign, the Walker campaign has been one single message since its inception in 2023: "Because It's My Turn." This tagline became almost synonymous with Walker's campaign last week when it went up in over 15 media markets that cater to Super Tuesday states. Though crass, this does echo the real argument Walker's campaign makes.

Article continued on page 119A

[Niemeyerite]

Gillibrand is my horse

[badgate]

XXIV: TIME Magazine: The Candidates special issue, contd.



page 119A

South Carolina Senator Tim Scott

Who? In 2012, Tim Scott became the first African American in the US Senate since President Barack Obama's appointed replacement Roland W. Burris left office in 2010, and the first African American Republican Senator since Edward William Brooke, III left the legislative body in 1979. In the Senate he has been a staunch leader of the far-right members of the GOP, and developed an online reputation for his fiery floor speeches to rival former Congressman Anthony Weiner.

What? Scott has appealed to the conservative base and painted his campaign as a chance for Republicans to retake ground with African Americans (President Kelly Ayotte lost the black vote by 76 points in 2020). He has pushed the field on education in a startlingly different way than Democrat Julian Castro; Scott's plan expands Ayotte's national voucher program enshrined in her first term budget, ties raises for teachers to the success rate of their students on high-stakes tests, and creates a program to reward high-performing schools with more discretionary "school supply" funds to dole out to teachers. Scott has been praised by both parties for a charter school program he outlined in the pre-Super Tuesday debate: using money from property taxes on charter schools, his administration would create a program that would award construction grants to charter schools, but mandate that the schools accept 50 to 250 low-income students free of charge, depending on the school's size.

Why? Scott is a politician that has proven throughout his career his commitment to conservative idealism. His voting record is a how-to guide in conservatism and for that reason he has the surging support of the same white base that made up the "Tea Party" movement of the 2010s. Scott also invokes his religion regularly on the campaign trail, and has held many events in churches. Surprising many pundits, he spoke on race at one such event, saying that he hoped his campaign could ease the segregation of black and white Christians, even noting the statistic that Sunday mornings are the most segregated hours in America.

Kentucky Senator Alison Lundergan Grimes

Who? Alison Lundergan Grimes doesn't scare easy. That sentence has become a hallmark of her national profile since she became the first Democrat in 30 years to defeat then-GOP Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, and subsequently saw a meteoric rise through the first Ayotte term to become chairman of the Senate Appropriations committee.

What? Grimes bonded quickly with her Senate colleague Ron Paul in their successful push to severely limit the NSA's surveillance capabilities in 2015. She has continued her record on privacy, civil liberties, and like Indiana Sen. Joe Donnelly was a regular swing vote for the Ayotte administration on certain priorities, such as the Electoral and Voting Ability Act of 2021. Like other Presidential contenders, she has made an expansion of that legislation a part of her campaign platform. Grimes helped legalize hemp for Kentucky growers in 2018 with the help of the Ayotte administration's Senate muscle, and has been the only Democratic candidate to endorse legalization. Otherwise, her profile is much more conservative than even Castro, who of course toes a thin line governing a swing state like Texas.

Why? According to campaign chairman Jeremy Bird, when Vice President Gene Taylor declined to run in 2024, Grimes saw an opening to seize the Blue Dog primary voters, and the many independents that usually vote in Democratic primaries. This has given her seemingly easy wins in states such as Utah and North Carolina, and she made South Carolina very close for frontrunner Kirsten Gillibrand. Grimes also has the unique ability of appealing to a group of states Gillibrand nor Castro could dream of going for in an open election cycle. Indiana, Kentucky, Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Georgia, North & South Carolina, West Virginia, and Tennessee, all give Grimes a +3 to +13 approval and could all be in play for Grimes provided she face the right GOP candidate.

Alaska Governor Sarah Palin

Who? Former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin gained national prominence when she joined former Senator John McCain's 2008 Presidential campaign as his running mate. He had been elected Governor of Alaska two years prior, in 2006, after primarying the Incumbent Republican Governor. After the 2008 election, Palin left public office for a position on Fox News, and spent the next decade as a high-paid pundit and occasional potential candidate for such and such office. In 2019, Palin surprised many by attending Yale Law School. Many called it a stunt but the popular conservative Hockey Mom has proven herself in front of the GOP debate audiences. Her reputation as a stupid blowhard has largely fallen by the wayside in the wake of her new qualifications for President.

What? What, indeed. Palin's campaign, like Scott Walker's, have been focused on the general election. Without a cohesive policy platform, Palin has used the day to day issues of the primaries to buoy her support.

Why? It cannot be stated enough that Palin is a real contender for the Presidency. Her thesis, which won a Pulitzer for non-fiction writing in 2022, is so dense that many low-rung lawyers found it hard to understand. Palin still has that brilliant folksy voice, and the juxtaposition has proven addictive to GOP primary voters. Palin has already stealthily made Senator Marco Rubio's campaign dead in the water before Super Tuesday polls even open, and her campaign has set its sights on taking down the flailing frontrunner, VP Walker.

Editor's Note: Though FL Senator Marco Rubio has not officially withdrawn from the GOP primaries, he is losing his home state and is in the low single digits nationwide and therefore we did not feel he warranted a profile for this special 2024 election edition of TIME.

[badgate]

XXV: The Most Super Tuesday


Tuesday, March 5, 2024


Florida Primary


Governor Julian Castro 42%
Senator Kirsten Gillibrand 31%
Senator Alison Lundergan Grimes 26%


Vice President Scott Walker 39%
Senator Marco Rubio 33%
Governor Shelley Moore Capito 14%
Senator Tim Scott 9%
Governor Sarah Palin 5%




Massachusetts Primary


Senator Kirsten Gillibrand 57%
Governor Julian Castro 24%
Senator Alison Lundergan Grimes 19%



Governor Shelley Moore Capito 48%
Governor Sarah Palin 25%
Vice President Scott Walker 20%
Senator Tim Scott 4%
Senator Marco Rubio 3%





Oklahoma Primary


Governor Julian Castro 41%
Senator Alison Lundergan Grimes 40%
Senator Kirsten Gillibrand 19%



Governor Sarah Palin 37%
Vice President Scott Walker 35%
Senator Tim Scott 11%
Governor Shelley Moore Capito 10%
Senator Marco Rubio 7%





Tennessee Caucus


Senator Alison Lundergan Grimes 51%
Senator Kirsten Gillibrand 32%
Governor Julian Castro 17%


Governor Shelley Moore Capito 36%
Governor Sarah Palin 33%
Vice President Scott Walker 23%
Senator Tim Scott 7%
Senator Marco Rubio 1%




Texas Primary


Governor Julian Castro 66%
Senator Alison Lundergan Grimes 22%
Senator Kirsten Gillibrand 12%


Vice President Scott Walker 48%
Governor Sarah Palin 35%
Governor Shelley Moore Capito 9%
Senator Tim Scott 7%
Senator Marco Rubio 1%





Vermont Primary



Senator Kirsten Gillibrand 58%
Senator Alison Lundergan Grimes 21%
Governor Julian Castro 20%



Governor Shelley Moore Capito 44%
Vice President Scott Walker 37%
Senator Tim Scott 10%
Governor Sarah Palin 7%
Senator Marco Rubio 2%





Virginia Primary


Senator Kirsten Gillibrand 34%
Governor Julian Castro 34%
Senator Alison Lundergan Grimes 32%



Governor Shelley Moore Capito 38%
Vice President Scott Walker 37%
Governor Sarah Palin 20%
Senator Tim Scott 4%
Senator Marco Rubio 1%





Alabama Primary


Governor Julian Castro 44%
Senator Alison Lundergan Grimes 40%
Senator Kirsten Gillibrand 16%



Governor Sarah Palin 39%
Vice President Scott Walker 20%
Governor Shelley Moore Capito 22%
Senator Tim Scott 18%
Senator Marco Rubio 1%





Idaho Caucus


Senator Alison Lundergan Grimes 49%
Senator Kirsten Gillibrand 36%
Governor Julian Castro 15%



Vice President Scott Walker 51%
Governor Sarah Palin 31%
Governor Shelley Moore Capito 14%
Senator Tim Scott 3%
Senator Marco Rubio 1%





Minnesota Primary


Senator Kirsten Gillibrand 52%
Governor Julian Castro 39%
Senator Alison Lundergan Grimes 9%



Vice President Scott Walker 41%
Governor Shelley Moore Capito 37%
Governor Sarah Palin 21%
Senator Tim Scott 1%
Senator Marco Rubio 0%





Connecticut Primary



Senator Kirsten Gillibrand 43%
Governor Julian Castro 37%
Senator Alison Lundergan Grimes 20%


Governor Shelley Moore Capito 44%
Governor Sarah Palin 31%
Vice President Scott Walker 25%
Senator Tim Scott 0%
Senator Marco Rubio 0%

[badgate]

XXV: The Most Super Tuesday, results

Democratic Primary Map (with percentage shading)

Governor Julian Castro
Senator Kirsten Gillibrand
Senator Alison Lundergan Grimes

Republican Primary Map (without shading)

Vice President Scott Walker
Governor Shelley Moore Capito
Senator Marco Rubio
Governor Sarah Palin
Senator Tim Scott

[badgate]

XXVI: Fallout


Wednesday, March 6, 2024

Grimes, Scott, & Rubio Out of Presidential Race

Around midnight, Kentucky Senator Alison Lundergan Grimes took the stage in Alexandria, VA to address supporters. To their surprise, she announced that she was dropping out of the primary race. "This past year I have met so many hard working passionate Americans across this country who dream of a better life for their children. I am confident that either of the other Democratic candidates can fulfill this dream, but I won't be endorsing at this time." According to unnamed sources close to Grimes and campaign chair Jeremy Bird, the decision to drop out was made after Texas Governor Julian Castro upset Grimes in Alabama and Oklahoma, and her third place finish in the heated Virginia primary. Exit polling showed that Castro won both AL and OK by appealing better than the other candidates to black and hispanic voters.

Florida Senator Marco Rubio embarrassingly lost his home state last night, and announced via press release that he was leaving the GOP Presidential primary.

Perhaps more surprising on the GOP side were South Carolina Senator Tim Scott's poor performances in the Super Tuesday states. Showing no path to the nomination, Scott dropped out this morning in a web address posted to YouTube and his campaign's official website. Many had expected Scott to stay in, keeping a competitive four-way for the GOP side. Now the field looks like a clash of the titans between major upsetter Capito (who upset both Palin and Walker in states last night).

The race now looks forward to the Hawai'ian caucuses and Mississippi/Ohio primaries next Tuesday, and the Illinois primary in two weeks. On the Democrat side, Gillibrand and Castro will compete most heavily in Ohio and Illinois while Hawai'i looks safe for Gillibrand and Mississippi leans Castro. Former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, who is staying in the race, doesn't look like she will be able to win more than Mississippi in the coming weeks, leaving the race between former frontrunner Scott Walker and insurgent moderate Shelley Moore Capito.

[PolitiJunkie]

I really hope the ticket is Gillibrand/Castro.

[badgate]

I really hope the ticket is Gillibrand/Castro.

We'll see . Now that the race is down to two, we'll have a lot more endorsements roll in on both sides in the next update. Thoughts on the GOP ticket?

[PolitiJunkie]

I really hope the ticket is Gillibrand/Castro.

We'll see . Now that the race is down to two, we'll have a lot more endorsements roll in on both sides in the next update. Thoughts on the GOP ticket?

Sorry, that last post was weirdly non-elaborate for me. I really, really like Gillibrand and Castro, so I think this primary should end with the unity ticket that wouldn't have worked for Hillary and Obama. Of course, there is the age issue, but even if Gillibrand served two terms as VP, she'd only be 66 in 2032 so that's not a disqualifier. But it would be kind of weird with Gillibrand as VP considering she was the VP nominee in 2016 (if my memory serves correctly) sought the Democratic nomination for the presidency in 2020. I could see a Nixon situation happening: Gillibrand/Castro is elected in 2024, serves two terms, and the administration is very popular throughout. Then, despite the administration's popularity, Castro loses very narrowly in 2032 to a popular Republican, but he is far from damaged goods, and he comes back to win resoundingly one or two elections later. Castro is young enough that it would work; he'd be 62 in 2036 and 66 in 2040. If Castro wins the nomination, ALG should be his VP with Gillibrand as Secretary of State or Attorney General. So yeah, everything would work better with Gillibrand at the top of the ticket. Gillibrand and Castro join Sherrod Brown in forming my triumvirate of favorite politicians.

Walker/Capito could be a pretty formidable ticket. I'm surprised Tim Scott did so well and I'm glad to see him gone. If Capito wins the primary, it would be interesting to see what direction she goes regarding a VP pick.

What is Chris Christie up to in this TL?

Anyway, I have to congratulate you on how awesome this TL is. I got pretty bored of my 2016 timeline even if I had so many great twists and turns planned. I guess I'll start a new one soon. I like your format of something weird going on in the next couple elections and showing the political aftermath; it allows longitivtiy and keeps the timeline engaging and exciting. I've also always wanted to read a timeline either in which Paul Wellstone lives and presumably runs for/becomes President at some point, or a timeline in which Herman Cain has no sex scandal and becomes a strong candidate for/wins the 2012 primary. Maybe I'll write one of those scenarios.

[badgate]

XXVII: Donkey Unity


Tuesday, March 12, 2024


Hawai'i Caucus



Senator Kirsten Gillibrand 54%
Governor Julian Castro 45%




Mississippi Primary



Senator Kirsten Gillibrand 61%
Governor Julian Castro 39%




Ohio Primary



Senator Kirsten Gillibrand 52%
Governor Julian Castro 48%


Wednesday, March 13, 2024


Governor Julian Castro vowed to continue his campaign, pointing out that he still had been tied in number of states won up until last night. He set a red line on next Tuesday's primaries, which have been dubbed "Second Tuesday" for being a large primary day nationwide like Super Tuesday. Castro pointed to Illinois, Georgia, and Wisconsin's primaries as signifiers of whether he would drop out after Second Tuesday.

Thursday, March 14, 2024


Former President Barack Obama held a fundraiser in Chicago for the Texas Presidential hopeful Julian Castro this evening. Obama declined to endorse either candidate when asked by reporters, signifying the party's desire not to have a wounding primary for either Castro or Gillibrand going into the fall. However this could keep Castro down in the IL polls without an explicit endorsement.


Monday, March 18, 2024


Gillibrand wins Second Tuesday debate
By a 66% margin in our flash poll, New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand won the final debate before the Second Tuesday primaries.



Tuesday, March 19, 2024



Illinois Primary



Governor Julian Castro 51%
Senator Kirsten Gillibrand 49%



Louisiana Primary



Senator Kirsten Gillibrand 53%
Governor Julian Castro 45%



Wisconsin Primary



Senator Kirsten Gillibrand 50.5%
Governor Julian Castro 48.9%



New Mexico Primary



Governor Julian Castro 55%
Senator Kirsten Gillibrand 44%



New York Primary



Senator Kirsten Gillibrand 69%
Governor Julian Castro 30%



Georgia Primary



Senator Kirsten Gillibrand 51%
Governor Julian Castro 49%



Kansas Caucus



Senator Kirsten Gillibrand 54%
Governor Julian Castro 45%



11:39pm

"I have spoken to Senator Gillibrand and offered her my unqualified support in the general election this November. The party has spoken and chosen the Senator to be our nominee, and I could not be prouder to work for a victory for all Americans this fall. We will succeed and we will bring forth the new era of prosperity for the hard working people of this Union. I have released all of my delegates and asked them to cast votes for the Senator at the DNC. Thank you all for your unwavering, tireless support, now let's go win the White House for the Democratic party!"






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That's the end of the Dem primary. GOP coming soon.