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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  U.S. Presidential Election Results
  2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderators: Torie, Senator ON Progressive)
  Districts that Voted for the Candidate Opposite the Party of their Rep
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Author Topic: Districts that Voted for the Candidate Opposite the Party of their Rep  (Read 913 times)
PolitiJunkie
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« on: June 14, 2013, 12:16:49 pm »

Districts Represented by Republicans that Obama Won
CA-10
CA-21
CA-31
CO-6
FL-13
FL-27
IA-3
MN-2
MN-3
NJ-2
NJ-3
NV-3
NY-2
NY-11
NY-19
PA-8
VA-2
WA-8

Districts Represented by Democrats that Romney Won
AZ-1
AZ-2
FL-18
GA-12
MN-7
NC-7
TX-23
UT-4
WV-3

So obviously a fair amount of these are special circumstances, usually where there is a long-time, older, but popular moderate Representative serving a district that tends to vote the other way in presidential elections. These aside however, are any of these districts pickup opportunities for either party in 2014?
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #1 on: June 15, 2013, 04:34:34 am »

Districts Represented by Republicans that Obama Won
CA-10
CA-21
CA-31
CO-6
FL-13
FL-27
IA-3
MN-2
MN-3
NJ-2
NJ-3
NV-3
NY-2
NY-11
NY-19
PA-8
VA-2
WA-8

Districts Represented by Democrats that Romney Won
AZ-1
AZ-2
FL-18
GA-12
MN-7
NC-7
TX-23
UT-4
WV-3

So obviously a fair amount of these are special circumstances, usually where there is a long-time, older, but popular moderate Representative serving a district that tends to vote the other way in presidential elections. These aside however, are any of these districts pickup opportunities for either party in 2014?

Most of these are actually very competitive, I expect UT-4, FL-18, GA-12, CO-6, NC-7, and all the NY ones all to be heated races. Gary Miller in CA-31 is absolutely screwed if he actually gets a democratic opponent!
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Pessimistic Antineutrino
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« Reply #2 on: June 15, 2013, 08:37:05 am »

I honestly think UT--4 and GA-12 are safe bets for the Dems. Matheson is a very powerful incumbent, and has what it takes to win in an heavily R district. If he won in 2010 in the Republican wave AND in 2012 with no other than Mitt Romney at the top of the ticket, hes pretty safe some 2014. Unfortunately John Barrow is a similar case-a powerful Blue Dog in an R district. Many of the others will be competitive,  like FL-18.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #3 on: June 15, 2013, 08:08:21 pm »

I honestly think UT--4 and GA-12 are safe bets for the Dems. Matheson is a very powerful incumbent, and has what it takes to win in an heavily R district. If he won in 2010 in the Republican wave AND in 2012 with no other than Mitt Romney at the top of the ticket, hes pretty safe some 2014. Unfortunately John Barrow is a similar case-a powerful Blue Dog in an R district. Many of the others will be competitive,  like FL-18.

I agree on GA-12, but UT-4 is very unpredictable and will be very interesting. I hear Mia Love is considering a rematch. But Jim Matheson is so respected by many registered republicans in Utah pursuing a blue-dog conservative agenda for the reddest state in the U.S. He's basically one of the fake democrats to make up more seats for them. 
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