Map of counties that flipped in 2012
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 06:40:22 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  U.S. Presidential Election Results
  2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderator: Dereich)
  Map of counties that flipped in 2012
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Map of counties that flipped in 2012  (Read 8046 times)
Reaganfan
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,239
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: January 13, 2013, 12:17:25 PM »



GREEN: Obama 2008 counties that switched to Romney 2012
BLACK: McCain 2008 counties that switched to Obama 2012

Just got bored.
Logged
opebo
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 47,010


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: January 13, 2013, 01:29:33 PM »

Quite interesting map Reaganfan - definitely shows some potential for trouble in the upper Midwest and.
Logged
Sol
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,065
Bosnia and Herzegovina


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: January 13, 2013, 03:09:58 PM »

Quite interesting map Reaganfan - definitely shows some potential for trouble in the upper Midwest and.
One thing to note is that Obama hugely overperformed in the Upper Midwest in '08; this is a reversion to the mean.
Logged
minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,207
India


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: January 13, 2013, 03:19:15 PM »

A map of all the counties that flipped at any point between 2000 and 2012, with 14 different colors (actually 13 at most, I know there's no DDRD county in there) for the different ways to flip, would be totally cute.
Logged
All Along The Watchtower
Progressive Realist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,426
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: January 13, 2013, 03:29:01 PM »

Luna County, New Mexico is interesting. The median income there is about $27k and the county is majority Latino. Yet it voted for Romney.

Are a lot of the Latinos there old-stock Spanish-or-Mexican-Americans?
Logged
Siloch
Rookie
**
Posts: 156
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: January 13, 2013, 03:33:54 PM »

Staten Island went for McCain in 2008, Obama in 2012. Probably because of Hurricane Sandy.
Logged
minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,207
India


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: January 13, 2013, 03:49:29 PM »

Luna County, New Mexico is interesting. The median income there is about $27k and the county is majority Latino. Yet it voted for Romney.

Are a lot of the Latinos there old-stock Spanish-or-Mexican-Americans?
Republican candidates haven't received a vote from those people in a generation. Tongue
Logged
GMantis
Dessie Potter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,947
Bulgaria


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: January 13, 2013, 04:43:33 PM »

Luna County, New Mexico is interesting. The median income there is about $27k and the county is majority Latino. Yet it voted for Romney.

Are a lot of the Latinos there old-stock Spanish-or-Mexican-Americans?
Not really, since they mostly live in northern New Mexico. As for the result, this is probably a combination of many of these Hispanics not being citizens or over 18. Add the traditional low turnout among Hispanics and the number of Hispanics who actually vote may well be in the minority.
Logged
Talleyrand
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,517


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: January 13, 2013, 06:50:32 PM »

It's surprising that no counties in the deep South switched to Romney, and instead Obama actually gained some. Looks the Black population is slowly rising in its proportion of the population, and we might see many more blue counties in states like Mississippi and Alabama a few decades from now.
Logged
Benj
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 979


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: January 13, 2013, 07:18:39 PM »

Alaska is inaccurate on that map; there should be a bunch of black Census divisions. Also, you should probably color Salem County, NJ something other than blue; it went from Obama 2008 to an exact tie in 2012.
Logged
Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,952


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: January 14, 2013, 02:26:39 PM »

Franklin County KY should be in black.
Logged
timothyinMD
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 438


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: January 14, 2013, 05:53:40 PM »

It's surprising that no counties in the deep South switched to Romney, and instead Obama actually gained some. Looks the Black population is slowly rising in its proportion of the population, and we might see many more blue counties in states like Mississippi and Alabama a few decades from now.

The Republicans have probably maxed out the number of counties they can win in the south.  It's quite polarized down there by racial lines.  It's not so much the black population growing but that black turnout ticked up a little in MS/LA and white turnout dipped slightly
Logged
timothyinMD
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 438


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: January 14, 2013, 05:55:30 PM »

It's surprising that no counties in the deep South switched to Romney, and instead Obama actually gained some. Looks the Black population is slowly rising in its proportion of the population, and we might see many more blue counties in states like Mississippi and Alabama a few decades from now.

The map is incorrect.  Chattahoochee county, GA flipped from Obama to Romney.

That being said, the Republicans are just about maxed out the number of counties they can win in the south.  It's quite polarized down there by racial lines.  It's not so much the black population growing but that black turnout ticked up a little in MS/LA and white turnout dipped slightly
Logged
hopper
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,414
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: January 15, 2013, 02:03:37 PM »

Alaska is inaccurate on that map; there should be a bunch of black Census divisions. Also, you should probably color Salem County, NJ something other than blue; it went from Obama 2008 to an exact tie in 2012.
Salem County should be in "purple color" for a tie between Obama and Romney.
Logged
CatoMinor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,007
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: January 15, 2013, 02:07:27 PM »

Monroe and Conecah counties in Alabama need to be flipped
Logged
hopper
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,414
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: January 15, 2013, 06:58:28 PM »
« Edited: January 15, 2013, 07:00:08 PM by hopper »

Romney picked up  a few 2008 Obama counties each in CA and in Oregon too. Ok 2 of the CA counties are in the moderate to conservative areas of CA. The 1 county that Romney picked up is in Mike Thompson's(D) district I think which is in the northwest part of the state. Romney also picked up a few 2008 Obama counties in PA and they were in the Eastern Part of the State. A county in southern Texas by the Mexican Border was a Romney pick-up too.
Logged
minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,207
India


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: January 16, 2013, 06:09:12 AM »

Romney picked up  a few 2008 Obama counties each in CA and in Oregon too. Ok 2 of the CA counties are in the moderate to conservative areas of CA. The 1 county that Romney picked up is in Mike Thompson's(D) district I think which is in the northwest part of the state.
Romney narrowly flipped back the three remarkable D gains of 2008 that were not in SoCal or the San Joaquin Valley - Nevada, Butte and Trinity.
Logged
○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,615


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: January 19, 2013, 04:18:19 AM »

Alaska is inaccurate on that map; there should be a bunch of black Census divisions. Also, you should probably color Salem County, NJ something other than blue; it went from Obama 2008 to an exact tie in 2012.

People seem to forget Alaska a lot. Thanks to them, the land area of county equivalents that Obama won most likely increased.
Logged
Benj
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 979


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: January 20, 2013, 12:07:50 AM »
« Edited: January 20, 2013, 12:10:57 AM by Benj »

Romney picked up  a few 2008 Obama counties each in CA and in Oregon too. Ok 2 of the CA counties are in the moderate to conservative areas of CA. The 1 county that Romney picked up is in Mike Thompson's(D) district I think which is in the northwest part of the state.
Romney narrowly flipped back the three remarkable D gains of 2008 that were not in SoCal or the San Joaquin Valley - Nevada, Butte and Trinity.


They do have a somewhat similar profile, though. They all have a bunch of ordinary rural Republicans mixed with a specific type of hyper-liberalism: resort town in Nevada County (Truckee), college town in Butte County (Chico/Chico State) and general north coast hippie-liberalism in Trinity County.

I think there might be Mormons in Nevada County, actually.
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,107
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: June 12, 2013, 05:25:02 PM »
« Edited: June 12, 2013, 06:41:37 PM by ElectionsGuy »



GREEN: Obama 2008 counties that switched to Romney 2012
BLACK: McCain 2008 counties that switched to Obama 2012

Just got bored.

Sorry to bust your buttons, but Alaska is wrong.

All of these should be black:

Price Wales Hyder
Wrangell
Aluetians West
Lake and Peninsula
Dillingham
Yukon-Koyukuk
Northwest Arctic
North Slope

Alaska 2008 Map:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_Alaska,_2008

Alaska 2012 Map:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_Alaska,_2012
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.228 seconds with 13 queries.