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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  U.S. Presidential Election Results
  2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderators: Torie, Senator ON Progressive)
  Results by Metropolitican Statistical Areas
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Author Topic: Results by Metropolitican Statistical Areas  (Read 1983 times)
memphis
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« on: June 16, 2013, 09:50:01 pm »

I got really annoyed with the county maps, when I was trying to think about metro areas, which, IMO, is a more important thing. So, I busted out a spreadsheet and got to work. I'm working from the biggest metro areas down. Here's what I have so far. All percentages are out of just the two party votes. It made my life a lot easier and there weren't any notable third party candidates. Again, this is for the entire metro, and not just the anchor city listed. MSA frequently extends pretty far into the hinterlands, but I'm just going by the definitions the pros have created.

1. New York City
Obama 65.42
Romney 34.58

2. Los Angeles
Obama 65.03
Romney 34.97

3. Chicago
Obama 64.73
Romney 35.27

4. Dallas
Obama 42.74
Romney 57.26

5. Houston
Obama 44.03
Romney 55.97

6. Philadelphia
Obama  64.68
Romney 35.32

7. Washington
Obama 68.38
Romney 31.62

8. Miami
Obama 62.93
Romney 37.07

9. Atlanta
Obama 50.17
Romney 49.83

10. Boston
Obama 61.15
Romney 38.85
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #1 on: June 16, 2013, 09:55:32 pm »

I got really annoyed with the county maps, when I was trying to think about metro areas, which, IMO, is a more important thing. So, I busted out a spreadsheet and got to work. I'm working from the biggest metro areas down. Here's what I have so far. All percentages are out of just the two party votes. It made my life a lot easier and there weren't any notable third party candidates. Again, this is for the entire metro, and not just the anchor city listed. MSA frequently extends pretty far into the hinterlands, but I'm just going by the definitions the pros have created.

1. New York City
Obama 65.42
Romney 34.58

2. Los Angeles
Obama 65.03
Romney 34.97

3. Chicago
Obama 64.73
Romney 35.27

4. Dallas
Obama 42.74
Romney 57.26

5. Houston
Obama 44.03
Romney 55.97

6. Philadelphia
Obama  64.68
Romney 35.32

7. Washington
Obama 68.38
Romney 31.62

8. Miami
Obama 62.93
Romney 37.07

9. Atlanta
Obama 50.17
Romney 49.83

10. Boston
Obama 61.15
Romney 38.85

Nice! By Washington you mean D.C right? If you do I'm suprised it's not more democratic. I thought it should be in the 70's. Very interesting stuff and nice work.
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nclib
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« Reply #2 on: June 16, 2013, 10:43:00 pm »

Surprised Boston isn't more Democratic.
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tpfkaw
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« Reply #3 on: June 16, 2013, 10:49:21 pm »

Surprised Boston isn't more Democratic.

The Boston MSA includes the most Republican part of NH, among other areas.

Boston MSA is the lightest green shade:

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memphis
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« Reply #4 on: June 16, 2013, 10:53:15 pm »
« Edited: June 16, 2013, 11:40:58 pm by memphis »

Washington's Dem total is brought down by Northern VA. Boston includes vaguely competitive areas like Bristol and Norfolk counties as well as some lean GOP territory in Southern NH

11. San Francisco
Obama 74.66
Romney 25.34

12. Riverside
Obama 52.21
Romney 47.79

13. Phoenix
Obama 44.33
Romney 55.67

14. Detroit
Obama 60.09
Romney 39.91

15. Seattle
Obama 65.18
Romney 34.82

16. Minneapolis
Obama 56.17
Romney 43.83

17. San Diego
Obama 53.88
Romney 46.12

18. Tampa
Obama 51.59
Romney 48.41

19. Saint Louis
Obama 53.90
Romney 46.10

20. Baltimore
Obama 59.25
Romney 40.75
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December's tragic drive
BRTD
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« Reply #5 on: June 16, 2013, 11:25:56 pm »

Atlanta for Obama at all, even that narrow is quite surprising.
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memphis
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« Reply #6 on: June 17, 2013, 01:20:04 pm »

Percentage of all metro residents casting a vote

1. New York 35.45
2. Los Angeles 32.15
3. Chicago 39.08
4. Dallas 31.47
5. Houston 29.93
6. Philadelphia 47.04
7. DC 45.52
8. Miami 38.60
9. Atlanta 40.22
10. Boston 47.81

Obviously, percentage of adult citizens is very unequal. Still, Boston saw 60% better turnout than Houston. Impressive difference!
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traininthedistance
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« Reply #7 on: June 17, 2013, 04:42:19 pm »

It's always seems weird to me that Riverside is separate from the Los Angeles metro.

This can be fixed by going to Combined Statistical Areas, but that introduces other weirdness, such as forcing DC and Baltimore together.

I kind of suspect that Nielsen's media markets are actually the best way to do region-by-region tabulation.
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #8 on: June 18, 2013, 12:07:33 pm »

1. New York City
Obama 65.42
Romney 34.58

2. Los Angeles
Obama 65.03
Romney 34.97

3. Chicago
Obama 64.73
Romney 35.27

6. Philadelphia
Obama  64.68
Romney 35.32
Hilariously similar numbers.
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