1980 Carter (No Primary Challenge or Iran Hostage Crisis) vs Reagan

[AmericanforAmerica]

How would this end up?

[NewYorkExpress]

Carter Still loses but it isn't a blowout.

Reagan takes around 325 EV'S

Popular vote

Reagan 52%
Carter 47.3%

[NHI]

There is still the economic situation to contend with, so Carter loses in both races. Carter improves greatly against Reagan.

Reagan/Bush: 357 (53.71%)

Carter/Mondale: 181 (44.90%)

[ask_not]

Reagan/Bush: 307 (53.71%)

Carter/Mondale: 232 (44.90%) that's how I see it.
 

[Cryptic]

Carter: 203
Reagan: 335

Carter does better, but he still loses due to the poor economy.

[old timey villain]

I just watched a lengthy documentary on the Carter administration so this is a great question!

Carter was going to lose without the hostage crisis. His last year or two in office, after the Camp David Accords, was still a disaster anyway. The country was in economic turmoil and people felt like Carter couldn't control anything anymore. I honesty think that Reagan still would have swept most of the south in this scenario, as his reactionary conservatism was a much better fit for the region. I think that without a Ted Kennedy challenge, there would also be no John Anderson, allowing Carter to narrowly win some of the blue states since Anderson wouldn't be splitting the liberal vote.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

reactionary conservatism

Oxy-moron? In any case, while in a good amount of places, Reagan fought Carter and won a majority, the South was not one of them, so if he was going to improve at all, it was gonna be in his home region.

[old timey villain]

reactionary conservatism

Oxy-moron? In any case, while in a good amount of places, Reagan fought Carter and won a majority, the South was not one of them, so if he was going to improve at all, it was gonna be in his home region.

I didn't say Carter wouldn't improve in the south, I just don't think he wouldn't have swept the region like in 1976. In this scenario I think he would have picked up Alabama, Arkansas and maybe one or two more southern states but Reagan would have won the region overall.

Anderson took a lot of votes away from Carter in the Northeast, and Reagan won these states with a plurality, so without Anderson's campaign I think it would have been possible for Carter to pick up New York, Massachusetts, Maine and maybe Wisconsin in the midwest, assuming that most Anderson voters were disgruntled Dems or liberal Republicans.

[barfbag]

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[Flake]

I agree with barfbag