SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
Atlas Icon
Posts: 10,003
|
|
« on: June 20, 2013, 12:28:12 PM » |
|
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=166668.msg3562947#msg3562947
State 2010 2020 Change N +- Margin Increase 8-Ball. Alabama 6.737 6.506 -0.231 7 = -18 191 Getting real close. Alaska 1.117 1.169 0.052 1 = 271 99 Arizona 8.999 9.332 0.333 9 = 110 748 Still a possibility. Arkansas 4.129 4.033 -0.096 4 = 351 151 California 52.369 53.356 0.987 54 +1 -2 3630 50/50. Colorado 7.087 7.550 0.462 8 +1 -54 743 Not sure on 8th. Connecticut 5.049 4.785 -0.263 5 = -229 73 Delaware 1.358 1.381 0.023 1 = 94 88 Florida 26.435 27.673 1.238 28 +1 -190 2399 Somewhat safe for one. Georgia 13.627 14.055 0.429 14 = 311 1076 Hawaii 1.976 2.031 0.055 2 = 363 148 Idaho 2.260 2.270 0.010 2 = 176 129 3 not getting closer. Illinois 18.043 17.012 -1.031 17 -1 338 200 Sure loss. Indiana 9.128 8.791 -0.337 9 = -241 241 Iowa 4.312 4.167 -0.145 4 = 247 123 Kansas 4.042 3.949 -0.092 4 = -355 149 Kentucky 6.120 5.926 -0.194 6 = -339 185 Louisiana 6.392 6.344 -0.048 6 = 107 313 Stops the bleeding. Maine 1.933 1.809 -0.124 2 = -251 4 Safe until 2050. Maryland 8.131 8.215 0.084 8 = 201 510 Massachusetts 9.217 9.145 -0.073 9 = 253 449 Michigan 13.902 12.906 -0.996 13 -1 -338 -1 Sure loss. Minnesota 7.472 7.386 -0.087 7 -1 72 343 Long shot to keep 8. Mississippi 4.201 4.007 -0.194 4 = 371 79 Missouri 8.433 8.025 -0.408 8 = 347 148 Montana 1.478 1.472 -0.006 1 = 20 72 Will Bakken help? Nebraska 2.615 2.606 -0.010 3 = -88 133 Safe for now. Nevada 3.829 3.908 0.079 4 = -323 269 Not even a solid 4. New Hampshire 1.917 1.813 -0.104 2 = -255 19 Safe until 2050. New Jersey 12.369 11.912 -0.457 12 = -340 328 New Mexico 2.937 2.887 -0.050 3 = -307 120 Losing ground. New York 27.244 26.427 -0.817 26 -1 1 869 50/50 on loss of seat. North Carolina 13.413 13.759 0.346 14 +1 -227 1001 14 is in the bag. North Dakota 1.070 1.159 0.090 1 = 279 129 Ohio 16.224 15.108 -1.116 15 -1 268 34 One is certain. Oklahoma 5.297 5.298 0.001 5 = 144 290 Oregon 5.408 5.431 0.023 5 = 42 313 Needs to heat it up. Pennsylvania 17.862 16.942 -0.920 17 -1 -373 274 In the bag Rhode Island 1.562 1.449 -0.112 1 -1 38 -10 Pretty much a lock. South Carolina 6.521 6.647 0.126 7 = -126 453 South Dakota 1.249 1.280 0.031 1 = 178 89 Tennessee 8.935 8.954 0.019 9 = -366 504 Texas 35.350 38.459 3.110 39 +3 -50 4322 3rd is not in the bag. Utah 3.917 4.198 0.281 4 = 224 430 Faster than neighbors. Vermont 1.012 0.959 -0.053 1 = 454 1 Virginia 11.258 11.568 0.310 12 +1 -76 855 Somewhat safe. Washington 9.466 9.834 0.368 10 = -276 801 West Virginia 2.652 2.483 -0.169 2 -1 8 11 Could still save 3rd. Wisconsin 8.010 7.669 -0.340 8 = -146 177 OK until 2030 Wyoming 0.937 0.954 0.017 1 = 458 59
If these projections hold up, New York might not lose a seat for the first time since the 1940 census when they stayed at 45 (47 EC votes).
Out of Curiosity, how are the house seats calculated (numbers for 2010/2020)? What numbers are used? Or is it only known by the census bureau?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Huntington%E2%80%93Hill_method
|