Predictions of Future Electoral Votes and Trends of States (user search)
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Author Topic: Predictions of Future Electoral Votes and Trends of States  (Read 5883 times)
Gass3268
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« on: June 20, 2013, 10:10:53 AM »
« edited: June 20, 2013, 10:16:43 AM by Senator Gass3268 »

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=166668.msg3562947#msg3562947


State               2010    2020  Change   N  +-  Margin Increase  8-Ball.
Alabama            6.737   6.506  -0.231   7   =     -18     191   Getting real close.
Alaska             1.117   1.169   0.052   1   =     271      99
Arizona            8.999   9.332   0.333   9   =     110     748   Still a possibility.
Arkansas           4.129   4.033  -0.096   4   =     351     151
California        52.369  53.356   0.987  54  +1      -2    3630   50/50.
Colorado           7.087   7.550   0.462   8  +1     -54     743   Not sure on 8th.
Connecticut        5.049   4.785  -0.263   5   =    -229      73
Delaware           1.358   1.381   0.023   1   =      94      88
Florida           26.435  27.673   1.238  28  +1    -190    2399   Somewhat safe for one.
Georgia           13.627  14.055   0.429  14   =     311    1076  
Hawaii             1.976   2.031   0.055   2   =     363     148
Idaho              2.260   2.270   0.010   2   =     176     129   3 not getting closer.
Illinois          18.043  17.012  -1.031  17  -1     338     200   Sure loss.
Indiana            9.128   8.791  -0.337   9   =    -241     241
Iowa               4.312   4.167  -0.145   4   =     247     123
Kansas             4.042   3.949  -0.092   4   =    -355     149
Kentucky           6.120   5.926  -0.194   6   =    -339     185
Louisiana          6.392   6.344  -0.048   6   =     107     313   Stops the bleeding.
Maine              1.933   1.809  -0.124   2   =    -251       4   Safe until 2050.
Maryland           8.131   8.215   0.084   8   =     201     510
Massachusetts      9.217   9.145  -0.073   9   =     253     449
Michigan          13.902  12.906  -0.996  13  -1    -338      -1   Sure loss.
Minnesota          7.472   7.386  -0.087   7  -1      72     343   Long shot to keep 8.
Mississippi        4.201   4.007  -0.194   4   =     371      79
Missouri           8.433   8.025  -0.408   8   =     347     148
Montana            1.478   1.472  -0.006   1   =      20      72   Will Bakken help?
Nebraska           2.615   2.606  -0.010   3   =     -88     133   Safe for now.
Nevada             3.829   3.908   0.079   4   =    -323     269   Not even a solid 4.
New Hampshire      1.917   1.813  -0.104   2   =    -255      19   Safe until 2050.
New Jersey        12.369  11.912  -0.457  12   =    -340     328
New Mexico         2.937   2.887  -0.050   3   =    -307     120   Losing ground.
New York          27.244  26.427  -0.817  26  -1       1     869   50/50 on loss of seat.
North Carolina    13.413  13.759   0.346  14  +1    -227    1001   14 is in the bag.
North Dakota       1.070   1.159   0.090   1   =     279     129
Ohio              16.224  15.108  -1.116  15  -1     268      34   One is certain.
Oklahoma           5.297   5.298   0.001   5   =     144     290
Oregon             5.408   5.431   0.023   5   =      42     313   Needs to heat it up.
Pennsylvania      17.862  16.942  -0.920  17  -1    -373     274   In the bag Wink
Rhode Island       1.562   1.449  -0.112   1  -1      38     -10   Pretty much a lock.
South Carolina     6.521   6.647   0.126   7   =    -126     453
South Dakota       1.249   1.280   0.031   1   =     178      89
Tennessee          8.935   8.954   0.019   9   =    -366     504
Texas             35.350  38.459   3.110  39  +3     -50    4322   3rd is not in the bag.
Utah               3.917   4.198   0.281   4   =     224     430   Faster than neighbors.
Vermont            1.012   0.959  -0.053   1   =     454       1
Virginia          11.258  11.568   0.310  12  +1     -76     855   Somewhat safe.
Washington         9.466   9.834   0.368  10   =    -276     801
West Virginia      2.652   2.483  -0.169   2  -1       8      11   Could still save 3rd.
Wisconsin          8.010   7.669  -0.340   8   =    -146     177   OK until 2030
Wyoming            0.937   0.954   0.017   1   =     458      59


If these projections hold up, New York might not lose a seat for the first time since the 1940 census when they stayed at 45 (47 EC votes).
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