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Author Topic: MT-PPP: Tossup  (Read 1415 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« on: June 25, 2013, 01:06:45 pm »

GOP Primary:

(Asked of 340 Republican primary voters)
Given the choices of Steve Daines, Champ
Edmunds, Marc Racicot, and Corey Stapleton,
who would you most like to see as the
Republican candidate for Senate?

Marc Racicot................................................... 47%
Steve Daines .................................................. 28%
Champ Edmunds ............................................ 5%
Corey Stapleton .............................................. 5%

...

General election:

Marc Racicot................................................... 47%
Brian Schweitzer ............................................. 46%

Brian Schweitzer ............................................. 48%
Steve Daines .................................................. 45%

...

PPP surveyed 807 registered voters between June 21-23, 2013, including 340 Republican primary voters. The margin of error was +/- 3.4% statewide, and +/- 5.3% for the Republican primary. This poll was not authorized or paid for by any campaign or political organization. PPP’s surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MT_625.pdf
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King Francis I
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« Reply #1 on: June 25, 2013, 01:11:46 pm »

My god, it risks to be more difficult than I thought to hold this seat!
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #2 on: June 25, 2013, 01:17:15 pm »

My god, it risks to be more difficult than I thought to hold this seat!

Yeah, but these 2 would be the top recruits for the Republicans, and they have not made any move yet.

Schweitzer leads the 2 announced GOP candidates by double digits though ...
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minionofmidas - supplemental forum account
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« Reply #3 on: June 25, 2013, 01:19:16 pm »

Racicot. Haven't heard that name in ten years. He was considered as having a great future ahead of him back in the day.
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Pessimistic Antineutrino
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« Reply #4 on: June 25, 2013, 01:22:21 pm »

There's already been a draft Racicot movement; but he clearly hasn't done anything as of yet. He seems to be our only chance to flip this seat for 2014.
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publicunofficial
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« Reply #5 on: June 25, 2013, 01:30:47 pm »

I suspect Racicot will never run, and if he does his favorables will go down as the race goes on.

I suspect Schweitzer would run an ad along the lines of "After my term, I stayed in Montana and helped with our businesses. Marc Racicot went to Washington and became a lobbyist. Who really cares for Montana?"
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olowakandi
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« Reply #6 on: June 25, 2013, 04:30:38 pm »

The same Racicot that declined cabinet spot for Bush.  Schweizer would still beat him but we will have to see.
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Mayor Steve Pearce
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« Reply #7 on: June 25, 2013, 06:08:43 pm »

Racicot has been too content with DC life to work in there, plus his lead would fall easily to Schweitzer's populist message.
Daines just accepted a position as the central-west regional director for the NRCC. He really doesn't sound interested right now.
As far as I'm concerned, these two are afterthoughts. But in the case Schweitzer actually opts out, I'm actually much more happy to hear that the candidates behind him can hold their own against Stapleton or Edmunds (especially Edmunds, he's a bit too conservative to win even in Montana). Low recog is probably a reason, but I'm hopeful.
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Vosem
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« Reply #8 on: June 25, 2013, 09:49:57 pm »

Judging from his Wikipedia article, Stapleton sounds like quite the rising star (and Edmunds quite the kook). I do hope he wins, or at least pushes Schweitzer's margin of victory into the low single digits.
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Dave Leip
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« Reply #9 on: June 26, 2013, 09:27:13 pm »

New Poll: Montana Senator by Public Policy Polling on 2013-06-23

Summary: D: 42%, R: 43%, U: 15%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Mayor Steve Pearce
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« Reply #10 on: June 26, 2013, 09:37:48 pm »

Judging from his Wikipedia article, Stapleton sounds like quite the rising star (and Edmunds quite the kook). I do hope he wins, or at least pushes Schweitzer's margin of victory into the low single digits.

I've crawled his Facebook page, and you should be a little concerned with the fact that he's said the sequester doesn't cut far enough. But other than that and throwing around comparisons to the Soviet Union when Montanans want to expand welfare, haven't seen much.
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Snowstalker's Last Stand
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« Reply #11 on: June 27, 2013, 12:02:46 am »

Judging from his Wikipedia article, Stapleton sounds like quite the rising star (and Edmunds quite the kook). I do hope he wins, or at least pushes Schweitzer's margin of victory into the low single digits.

I've crawled his Facebook page, and you should be a little concerned with the fact that he's said the sequester doesn't cut far enough. But other than that and throwing around comparisons to the Soviet Union when Montanans want to expand welfare, haven't seen much.

Ironically the USSR was far less tolerant of welfare than the US.
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Miles
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« Reply #12 on: June 28, 2013, 09:34:50 am »

Baucus' approval has dropped to 36/52 since his retirement announcement.

Bullock and Tester are both on favorable terms in MT, respectively at 49/26 and 48/43.
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