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  OH-Quinnipiac: Christie/Clinton tie; Clinton leads Paul; Biden loses to GOP
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Author Topic: OH-Quinnipiac: Christie/Clinton tie; Clinton leads Paul; Biden loses to GOP  (Read 1198 times)
Mr. Morden
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« on: June 26, 2013, 05:17:37 am »

Quinnipiac poll of Ohio:

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/ohio/release-detail?ReleaseID=1914

Christie 42%
Clinton 42%

Clinton 47%
Paul 44%

Christie 50%
Biden 32%

Paul 49%
Biden 40%
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1 on: June 26, 2013, 06:09:41 am »

Surprisingly bad numbers for Hillary.

Catastrophic numbers for Biden.
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mattyman
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« Reply #2 on: June 26, 2013, 06:17:14 am »

Surprisingly bad numbers for Hillary.

Catastrophic numbers for Biden.

I wouldn't say catastrophic numbers for Biden, polls this far out are (should be) taken with a grain of salt. Though I'm sure Rand Paul will be heartened by this poll. Can't help but think that increasing publicity for Paul is helping him with the poll numbers.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #3 on: June 26, 2013, 06:26:39 am »

Compared to their national poll (Clinton+8 against Paul), Ohio is R+5.

It was R+1 last year and R+3 in 2008.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #4 on: June 26, 2013, 06:47:31 am »

Quinnipiac uses a 29% D, 28% R, 43% I/O model in this poll.

The 2012 Exit Poll showed a 38% D, 31% R, 31% I/O electorate.

If we use this model and Quinnipiacs crosstabs, Clinton leads Christie 47-40 and Paul by 51-41.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #5 on: June 26, 2013, 07:07:07 am »

fav/unfav among all voters:

Christie 48/16% for +32%
Paul 43/26% for +17%
Clinton 52/44% for +8%
Biden 41/48% for -7%

Christie has broad support across party lines, while opinions of Clinton are more polarized:

Christie fav/unfav among…
Dems: 37/19% for +18%
GOP: 55/14% for +41%
Indies: 53/14% for +39%

Clinton fav/unfav among…
Dems: 86/9% for +77%
GOP: 18/80% for -62%
Indies: 55/43% for +12%

But one thing that may be inflating the fav/unfav differential for Christie and Paul is that Dems are less likely to know who they are.

% saying they don't know enough about Christie to have an opinion:
Dems: 43%
GOP: 29%

% saying they don't know enough about Paul to have an opinion:
Dems: 38%
GOP: 22%
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #6 on: June 26, 2013, 07:14:09 am »

The age crosstabs continue to be interesting in the 2016 polling.  In Christie vs. Clinton, Clinton does better among the young than the old, though the difference isn't very large compared to recent elections:

Christie vs. Clinton:
18-29: Clinton +6
30-44: Clinton +9
45-64: Christie +3
65 and older: Christie +5

But in Paul vs. Clinton, Paul actually wins the young while losing every other age group:

Paul vs. Clinton:
18-29: Paul +7
30-44: Clinton +14
45-64: Clinton +1
65 and older: Clinton +5

In both cases, Clinton's best age group is 30-44 year olds, even though most of the PPP polling shows that that's her worst demographic!
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Knives
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« Reply #7 on: June 26, 2013, 07:48:08 am »

Quinnipiac uses a 29% D, 28% R, 43% I/O model in this poll.

The 2012 Exit Poll showed a 38% D, 31% R, 31% I/O electorate.

If we use this model and Quinnipiacs crosstabs, Clinton leads Christie 47-40 and Paul by 51-41.

What a terrible sample selection...
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tpfkaw
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« Reply #8 on: June 26, 2013, 08:02:59 am »

Quinnipiac uses a 29% D, 28% R, 43% I/O model in this poll.

The 2012 Exit Poll showed a 38% D, 31% R, 31% I/O electorate.

If we use this model and Quinnipiacs crosstabs, Clinton leads Christie 47-40 and Paul by 51-41.

http://www.unskewedpolls.com
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #9 on: June 26, 2013, 12:34:23 pm »

Can we just ignore Quinnipiac already?
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illegaloperation
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« Reply #10 on: June 26, 2013, 05:45:11 pm »

Another unbelievable poll from Quinnipiac
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SPC
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« Reply #11 on: June 26, 2013, 06:43:52 pm »


Let's see how they did in 2012?
OH: Obama +5 (off by 2)
FL: Obama +1 (perfect)
VA: Obama +2 (off by 2)

Clearly a hack pollster.
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Beat-‘Em-All Beto
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« Reply #12 on: June 26, 2013, 06:55:34 pm »


Let's see how they did in 2012?
OH: Obama +5 (off by 2)
FL: Obama +1 (perfect)
VA: Obama +2 (off by 2)

Clearly a hack pollster.

Sadly, he's correct. Quinnipiac was very accurate in 2012. But that doesn't mean this poll might not be an outlier. Lets see some more info before we conclude on how accurate this one is.
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Devils30
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« Reply #13 on: June 26, 2013, 10:29:47 pm »

Only 3 and a half years to go! I can't see how Hillary would win Florida by 12 against its home state politicians and come close to losing Ohio. Just doesn't make sense. Based on Obamas national numbers there's no way he's at 40% here. But this poll is probably of 2014 only voters.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #14 on: June 27, 2013, 07:57:02 pm »

So Q is using an extremely restrictive "likely voters" model -- perhaps assuming that the 2014 and 2016 elections will look much like that in 2010 with Republicans fired up and Democrats largely out to lunch. I would expect something between 2010 and 2010 in results in 2014 and that of 2016 much like something between 2008 and 2012.

Change the assumptions and change everything. Young Democrats got a hard lesson in 2011 and 2012, and whether that lesson outpaces the entrenchment of Republicans in power is much in question.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #15 on: June 27, 2013, 08:42:00 pm »

Are they using a likely voter model at all?  The survey writeup talked about a sample of "registered voters".  Aren't they just calling people up, weighting by demographics (but not party ID) to get a registered voter sample, and then they get what they get?  I don't think they make any assumptions about party ID per se.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #16 on: June 28, 2013, 12:44:28 am »

Are they using a likely voter model at all?  The survey writeup talked about a sample of "registered voters".  Aren't they just calling people up, weighting by demographics (but not party ID) to get a registered voter sample, and then they get what they get?  I don't think they make any assumptions about party ID per se.

Yes, they only poll registered voters (likely voters are only polled a few months before an election).

I don't really know if they weight by party or not, even though in their demographic summary it says "weighted by party":

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/oh/oh06252013_demos.pdf
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politicallefty
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« Reply #17 on: June 30, 2013, 08:40:01 am »

This could just be a bad poll. That does happen. I highly doubt that President Obama is only at 40% in Ohio right now.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #18 on: June 30, 2013, 11:23:35 am »

Also, the same poll said most Ohioans are against Medicaid expansion. You know this is way off, because other polls said even a vast majority of folks in the Deep South (which is much more conservative than Ohio) supported it.
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barfbag
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« Reply #19 on: July 05, 2013, 07:57:54 pm »

Too early to tell.
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