OH-Quinnipiac: Christie/Clinton tie; Clinton leads Paul; Biden loses to GOP
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 01:28:19 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  OH-Quinnipiac: Christie/Clinton tie; Clinton leads Paul; Biden loses to GOP
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: OH-Quinnipiac: Christie/Clinton tie; Clinton leads Paul; Biden loses to GOP  (Read 1319 times)
Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,073
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: June 26, 2013, 05:17:37 AM »

Quinnipiac poll of Ohio:

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/ohio/release-detail?ReleaseID=1914

Christie 42%
Clinton 42%

Clinton 47%
Paul 44%

Christie 50%
Biden 32%

Paul 49%
Biden 40%
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: June 26, 2013, 06:09:41 AM »

Surprisingly bad numbers for Hillary.

Catastrophic numbers for Biden.
Logged
mattyman
Rookie
**
Posts: 92
New Zealand


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: June 26, 2013, 06:17:14 AM »

Surprisingly bad numbers for Hillary.

Catastrophic numbers for Biden.

I wouldn't say catastrophic numbers for Biden, polls this far out are (should be) taken with a grain of salt. Though I'm sure Rand Paul will be heartened by this poll. Can't help but think that increasing publicity for Paul is helping him with the poll numbers.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: June 26, 2013, 06:26:39 AM »

Compared to their national poll (Clinton+8 against Paul), Ohio is R+5.

It was R+1 last year and R+3 in 2008.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: June 26, 2013, 06:47:31 AM »

Quinnipiac uses a 29% D, 28% R, 43% I/O model in this poll.

The 2012 Exit Poll showed a 38% D, 31% R, 31% I/O electorate.

If we use this model and Quinnipiacs crosstabs, Clinton leads Christie 47-40 and Paul by 51-41.
Logged
Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,073
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: June 26, 2013, 07:07:07 AM »

fav/unfav among all voters:

Christie 48/16% for +32%
Paul 43/26% for +17%
Clinton 52/44% for +8%
Biden 41/48% for -7%

Christie has broad support across party lines, while opinions of Clinton are more polarized:

Christie fav/unfav among…
Dems: 37/19% for +18%
GOP: 55/14% for +41%
Indies: 53/14% for +39%

Clinton fav/unfav among…
Dems: 86/9% for +77%
GOP: 18/80% for -62%
Indies: 55/43% for +12%

But one thing that may be inflating the fav/unfav differential for Christie and Paul is that Dems are less likely to know who they are.

% saying they don't know enough about Christie to have an opinion:
Dems: 43%
GOP: 29%

% saying they don't know enough about Paul to have an opinion:
Dems: 38%
GOP: 22%
Logged
Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,073
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: June 26, 2013, 07:14:09 AM »

The age crosstabs continue to be interesting in the 2016 polling.  In Christie vs. Clinton, Clinton does better among the young than the old, though the difference isn't very large compared to recent elections:

Christie vs. Clinton:
18-29: Clinton +6
30-44: Clinton +9
45-64: Christie +3
65 and older: Christie +5

But in Paul vs. Clinton, Paul actually wins the young while losing every other age group:

Paul vs. Clinton:
18-29: Paul +7
30-44: Clinton +14
45-64: Clinton +1
65 and older: Clinton +5

In both cases, Clinton's best age group is 30-44 year olds, even though most of the PPP polling shows that that's her worst demographic!
Logged
Knives
solopop
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,460
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: June 26, 2013, 07:48:08 AM »

Quinnipiac uses a 29% D, 28% R, 43% I/O model in this poll.

The 2012 Exit Poll showed a 38% D, 31% R, 31% I/O electorate.

If we use this model and Quinnipiacs crosstabs, Clinton leads Christie 47-40 and Paul by 51-41.

What a terrible sample selection...
Logged
tpfkaw
wormyguy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,118
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.58, S: 1.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: June 26, 2013, 08:02:59 AM »

Quinnipiac uses a 29% D, 28% R, 43% I/O model in this poll.

The 2012 Exit Poll showed a 38% D, 31% R, 31% I/O electorate.

If we use this model and Quinnipiacs crosstabs, Clinton leads Christie 47-40 and Paul by 51-41.

http://www.unskewedpolls.com
Logged
Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,951


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: June 26, 2013, 12:34:23 PM »

Can we just ignore Quinnipiac already?
Logged
illegaloperation
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 777


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: June 26, 2013, 05:45:11 PM »

Another unbelievable poll from Quinnipiac
Logged
SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,004
Latvia


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: June 26, 2013, 06:43:52 PM »


Let's see how they did in 2012?
OH: Obama +5 (off by 2)
FL: Obama +1 (perfect)
VA: Obama +2 (off by 2)

Clearly a hack pollster.
Logged
Warren 4 Secretary of Everything
Clinton1996
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,203
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.94, S: -4.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: June 26, 2013, 06:55:34 PM »


Let's see how they did in 2012?
OH: Obama +5 (off by 2)
FL: Obama +1 (perfect)
VA: Obama +2 (off by 2)

Clearly a hack pollster.

Sadly, he's correct. Quinnipiac was very accurate in 2012. But that doesn't mean this poll might not be an outlier. Lets see some more info before we conclude on how accurate this one is.
Logged
Devils30
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,967
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: June 26, 2013, 10:29:47 PM »

Only 3 and a half years to go! I can't see how Hillary would win Florida by 12 against its home state politicians and come close to losing Ohio. Just doesn't make sense. Based on Obamas national numbers there's no way he's at 40% here. But this poll is probably of 2014 only voters.
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,841
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: June 27, 2013, 07:57:02 PM »

So Q is using an extremely restrictive "likely voters" model -- perhaps assuming that the 2014 and 2016 elections will look much like that in 2010 with Republicans fired up and Democrats largely out to lunch. I would expect something between 2010 and 2010 in results in 2014 and that of 2016 much like something between 2008 and 2012.

Change the assumptions and change everything. Young Democrats got a hard lesson in 2011 and 2012, and whether that lesson outpaces the entrenchment of Republicans in power is much in question.
Logged
Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,073
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: June 27, 2013, 08:42:00 PM »

Are they using a likely voter model at all?  The survey writeup talked about a sample of "registered voters".  Aren't they just calling people up, weighting by demographics (but not party ID) to get a registered voter sample, and then they get what they get?  I don't think they make any assumptions about party ID per se.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: June 28, 2013, 12:44:28 AM »

Are they using a likely voter model at all?  The survey writeup talked about a sample of "registered voters".  Aren't they just calling people up, weighting by demographics (but not party ID) to get a registered voter sample, and then they get what they get?  I don't think they make any assumptions about party ID per se.

Yes, they only poll registered voters (likely voters are only polled a few months before an election).

I don't really know if they weight by party or not, even though in their demographic summary it says "weighted by party":

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/oh/oh06252013_demos.pdf
Logged
politicallefty
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.87, S: -9.22

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: June 30, 2013, 08:40:01 AM »

This could just be a bad poll. That does happen. I highly doubt that President Obama is only at 40% in Ohio right now.
Logged
Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,951


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: June 30, 2013, 11:23:35 AM »

Also, the same poll said most Ohioans are against Medicaid expansion. You know this is way off, because other polls said even a vast majority of folks in the Deep South (which is much more conservative than Ohio) supported it.
Logged
barfbag
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,611
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.26, S: -0.87

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: July 05, 2013, 07:57:54 PM »

Too early to tell.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.042 seconds with 14 queries.