OH-Quinnipiac: Christie/Clinton tie; Clinton leads Paul; Biden loses to GOP

[Tender Branson]

Surprisingly bad numbers for Hillary.

Catastrophic numbers for Biden.

[Tender Branson]

Compared to their national poll (Clinton+8 against Paul), Ohio is R+5.

It was R+1 last year and R+3 in 2008.

[Tender Branson]

Quinnipiac uses a 29% D, 28% R, 43% I/O model in this poll.

The 2012 Exit Poll showed a 38% D, 31% R, 31% I/O electorate.

If we use this model and Quinnipiacs crosstabs, Clinton leads Christie 47-40 and Paul by 51-41.

[Tender Branson]

Are they using a likely voter model at all?  The survey writeup talked about a sample of "registered voters".  Aren't they just calling people up, weighting by demographics (but not party ID) to get a registered voter sample, and then they get what they get?  I don't think they make any assumptions about party ID per se.

Yes, they only poll registered voters (likely voters are only polled a few months before an election).

I don't really know if they weight by party or not, even though in their demographic summary it says "weighted by party":

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/oh/oh06252013_demos.pdf