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  2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderators: Torie, Senator ON Progressive)
  Final Maps/Predictions?
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Author Topic: Final Maps/Predictions?  (Read 888 times)
Clarko95
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« on: June 27, 2013, 10:38:10 pm »
« edited: June 27, 2013, 10:55:48 pm by Clarko95 »

So in Jan/Feb 2012, this was my prediction if Romney won the nomination, with Obama
breaking 50%. This was before I understood the relationship between Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida.
319 219
50% - 48%
 

When Romney seemed to be winning then actually won I thought it would go something like this, with Obama *maybe* breaking 50%. 286 - 252



After the Dem Convention I got a little cocky and thought NC would narrowly go Obama, and he'd win between 50% - 52%. 347 - 191


After the debates and Romney's poll numbers go up, I thought either Obama would win with 303 EVs or less, or Romney with 279 or less. Neither would break 50% PV.

or


On election day my final bet was back to Obama 303 and 50%. How about you guys?
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Miles
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« Reply #1 on: June 27, 2013, 10:44:45 pm »

I just missed FL.

I honestly thought FL would go to Romney before NC.
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Clarko95
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« Reply #2 on: June 27, 2013, 10:49:53 pm »

I just missed FL.

I honestly thought FL would go to Romney before NC.

That was actually a pretty common belief last year; it was the icing on the cake for Obama.
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DS0816
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« Reply #3 on: June 27, 2013, 11:28:25 pm »

Why was anybody getting it wrong with Florida?

(The state votes like Ohio.)
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barfbag
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« Reply #4 on: June 28, 2013, 12:11:42 am »

Why was anybody getting it wrong with Florida?

(The state votes like Ohio.)

It's voted to the right of the nation in every single election since 1948. For the past 16 elections, Florida has been center-right. Ohio has the same case in most of the last 16 elections with a few exceptions like 1964 and 2004. Florida also voted for Bush in 1992. Yes, in very recent elections, they've had the same voting record, but the states are nothing alike internally and have very different demographics. Finally, the last two elections have been upsets with Obama winning Florida. McCain had a 53-38 point lead at one time and Obama pulled out of the sunshine state with 2-3 weeks left in the 2012 election. It's a purplish-red state.
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barfbag
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« Reply #5 on: June 28, 2013, 01:25:57 am »

http://

About what I predicted.
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Trends are real, and I f**king hate it
Antonio V
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« Reply #6 on: June 28, 2013, 04:33:39 am »



It was entirely based on Dave's 538 forecast model, so I don't get credit. Wink
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