How would the election of 1964 turned out had Goldwater voted for the CRA?

[soniquemd21921]

I've often wondered this for some time. Had Barry Goldwater voted in favor of the Civil Rights Act of 1964, how would the results of that election been? Obviously, he wouldn't have gotten 87% in Mississippi or 68% in Alabama, but would have he been able to hold states like Vermont, Kansas, Nebraska and possibly even Florida and Virginia?

And how would the Deep Southern states have voted?

[Mr.Phips]

I've often wondered this for some time. Had Barry Goldwater voted in favor of the Civil Rights Act of 1964, how would the results of that election been? Obviously, he wouldn't have gotten 87% in Mississippi or 68% in Alabama, but would have he been able to hold states like Vermont, Kansas, Nebraska and possibly even Florida and Virginia?

And how would the Deep Southern states have voted?

I really don't understand how Mississppi gave only 13% to Johnson and Alabama only 30%.  There would have had to have been like no blacks voting for that to happen.

[barfbag]

It would have been closer all around the U.S. The south would have been closer but still broken for Goldwater in every southern state. Goldwater would've also won the traditional Republican states such as ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, MT, WY, ID, UT, at the time CO and NM, his home state of AZ, and narrowly won CA. Indiana and Illinois may have also gone for Goldwater. As for Johnson, he was very popular following the Kennedy assassination and would have still won. The country wasn't ready to change leaders for the 3rd time in 14 months. Goldwater wasn't really a hardcore segregationist either. He simply supported the states' rights to decide if they want to have segregation the same as Wallace did in 1968. They weren't as bad as Stevenson, Thurmond, or Byrd.

[Indy Texas]

There would have been an anti-CRA vacuum that would have been filled by yet another third-party Southern candidate. This candidate would have won the states Goldwater carried but nothing else.

Probably something like this:

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

It would have been closer all around the U.S. The south would have been closer but still broken for Goldwater in every southern state. Goldwater would've also won the traditional Republican states such as ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, MT, WY, ID, UT, at the time CO and NM, his home state of AZ, and narrowly won CA. Indiana and Illinois may have also gone for Goldwater. As for Johnson, he was very popular following the Kennedy assassination and would have still won. The country wasn't ready to change leaders for the 3rd time in 14 months. Goldwater wasn't really a hardcore segregationist either. He simply supported the states' rights to decide if they want to have segregation the same as Wallace did in 1968. They weren't as bad as Stevenson, Thurmond, or Byrd.

Goldwater should've won Indiana in 1964 and would have had Kennedy not been killed.

[RandomWonder]

Here is a list of the states that were the tightest states:


Arizona, 0.99%
Idaho, 1.83%
Florida, 2.30%

Nebraska, 5.21%
Virginia, 7.36%
Georgia, 8.25%
Kansas, 9.03%
Utah, 9.73%

Goldwater would've won all these states, he might of also won Indiana.

Johnson would've still won by a huge margin no matter what, people weren't ready for a new president. 

[barfbag]

It would have been closer all around the U.S. The south would have been closer but still broken for Goldwater in every southern state. Goldwater would've also won the traditional Republican states such as ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, MT, WY, ID, UT, at the time CO and NM, his home state of AZ, and narrowly won CA. Indiana and Illinois may have also gone for Goldwater. As for Johnson, he was very popular following the Kennedy assassination and would have still won. The country wasn't ready to change leaders for the 3rd time in 14 months. Goldwater wasn't really a hardcore segregationist either. He simply supported the states' rights to decide if they want to have segregation the same as Wallace did in 1968. They weren't as bad as Stevenson, Thurmond, or Byrd.

Goldwater should've won Indiana in 1964 and would have had Kennedy not been killed.

I think I meant to put IN on the list.

[Ebowed]

It would have been closer all around the U.S. The south would have been closer but still broken for Goldwater in every southern state. Goldwater would've also won the traditional Republican states such as ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, MT, WY, ID, UT, at the time CO and NM, his home state of AZ, and narrowly won CA. Indiana and Illinois may have also gone for Goldwater. As for Johnson, he was very popular following the Kennedy assassination and would have still won. The country wasn't ready to change leaders for the 3rd time in 14 months. Goldwater wasn't really a hardcore segregationist either. He simply supported the states' rights to decide if they want to have segregation the same as Wallace did in 1968. They weren't as bad as Stevenson, Thurmond, or Byrd.

Stevenson wasn't a segregationist?

[NHI]

Johnson: 384 (45.6%)

Goldwater: 107 (37.9%)

Other: 47% (15.8%)

[barfbag]

It would have been closer all around the U.S. The south would have been closer but still broken for Goldwater in every southern state. Goldwater would've also won the traditional Republican states such as ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, MT, WY, ID, UT, at the time CO and NM, his home state of AZ, and narrowly won CA. Indiana and Illinois may have also gone for Goldwater. As for Johnson, he was very popular following the Kennedy assassination and would have still won. The country wasn't ready to change leaders for the 3rd time in 14 months. Goldwater wasn't really a hardcore segregationist either. He simply supported the states' rights to decide if they want to have segregation the same as Wallace did in 1968. They weren't as bad as Stevenson, Thurmond, or Byrd.

Stevenson wasn't a segregationist?

I'm saying he was.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

I've often wondered this for some time. Had Barry Goldwater voted in favor of the Civil Rights Act of 1964, how would the results of that election been? Obviously, he wouldn't have gotten 87% in Mississippi or 68% in Alabama, but would have he been able to hold states like Vermont, Kansas, Nebraska and possibly even Florida and Virginia?

And how would the Deep Southern states have voted?

I really don't understand how Mississppi gave only 13% to Johnson and Alabama only 30%.  There would have had to have been like no blacks voting for that to happen.

yep. Voting Rights Act wasn't passed until the following year, and even then it took a while for blacks to vote in large numbers in the South.  there were sometimes obstacles to poor whites voting as well. take a look at the 64 turnout rate - in MS and AL the turnout was only half of that in the Northern states.

Voting for the CRA wouldn't help him FL or VA.  It would have helped him in the Northeast and Upper Midwest, but he still had a lot going against him - an immoderate image that he did little to counter and the nation mourning JFK.  I can see him winning AZ, ID and possibly NE.  If there's a strong enough 3rd party candidate Goldwater doesn't win any southern states. without a 3rd party candidate Goldwater wins SC, LBJ wins LA and GA, and MS and AL go "unpledged."

[tpfkaw]

I've often wondered this for some time. Had Barry Goldwater voted in favor of the Civil Rights Act of 1964, how would the results of that election been? Obviously, he wouldn't have gotten 87% in Mississippi or 68% in Alabama, but would have he been able to hold states like Vermont, Kansas, Nebraska and possibly even Florida and Virginia?

And how would the Deep Southern states have voted?

I really don't understand how Mississppi gave only 13% to Johnson and Alabama only 30%.  There would have had to have been like no blacks voting for that to happen.

yep. Voting Rights Act wasn't passed until the following year, and even then it took a while for blacks to vote in large numbers in the South.  there were sometimes obstacles to poor whites voting as well. take a look at the 64 turnout rate - in MS and AL the turnout was only half of that in the Northern states.

Voting for the CRA wouldn't help him FL or VA.  It would have helped him in the Northeast and Upper Midwest, but he still had a lot going against him - an immoderate image that he did little to counter and the nation mourning JFK.  I can see him winning AZ, ID and possibly NE.  If there's a strong enough 3rd party candidate Goldwater doesn't win any southern states. without a 3rd party candidate Goldwater wins SC, LBJ wins LA and GA, and MS and AL go "unpledged."

What if the CRA were split into separate bills for the public accommodations/hiring portion and the rest of the bill, as was originally planned, and Goldwater voted against the former but for the latter?  Seems like that would be the most advantageous way of squaring the circle in states like Florida or Virginia, although not necessarily in the North (then again, who knows?  Look at Wallace's strength in the primaries).  Also probably would keep MS and AL from going for "unpledged."

[Ebowed]

It would have been closer all around the U.S. The south would have been closer but still broken for Goldwater in every southern state. Goldwater would've also won the traditional Republican states such as ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, MT, WY, ID, UT, at the time CO and NM, his home state of AZ, and narrowly won CA. Indiana and Illinois may have also gone for Goldwater. As for Johnson, he was very popular following the Kennedy assassination and would have still won. The country wasn't ready to change leaders for the 3rd time in 14 months. Goldwater wasn't really a hardcore segregationist either. He simply supported the states' rights to decide if they want to have segregation the same as Wallace did in 1968. They weren't as bad as Stevenson, Thurmond, or Byrd.

Stevenson wasn't a segregationist?

I'm saying he was.

Right, I figured that much, I'm just wondering if you have any evidence for that.

Edit: To clarify, I assume we're discussing Adlai Stevenson.

[barfbag]

It would have been closer all around the U.S. The south would have been closer but still broken for Goldwater in every southern state. Goldwater would've also won the traditional Republican states such as ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, MT, WY, ID, UT, at the time CO and NM, his home state of AZ, and narrowly won CA. Indiana and Illinois may have also gone for Goldwater. As for Johnson, he was very popular following the Kennedy assassination and would have still won. The country wasn't ready to change leaders for the 3rd time in 14 months. Goldwater wasn't really a hardcore segregationist either. He simply supported the states' rights to decide if they want to have segregation the same as Wallace did in 1968. They weren't as bad as Stevenson, Thurmond, or Byrd.

Stevenson wasn't a segregationist?

I'm saying he was.

Right, I figured that much, I'm just wondering if you have any evidence for that.

Edit: To clarify, I assume we're discussing Adlai Stevenson.

Yes from what I understand he held the same views as Wallace and Goldwater. He wasn't an ardent segregationist but supported the states' rights to decide on segregation.

[tpfkaw]

I believe Stevenson supported civil rights in an abstract sense, but he did pick two segregationist running mates, when asked about the issue said "civil rights are not very important," and if I'm remembering correctly implied that he thought Eisenhower was going too far sending the National Guard to integrate schools.

[Down the Gurney]

Every single one of the Goldwater states was under title 5 for either Jim Crow or anti-Spanish laws. You generally don't snub your supporters if you want to win.

[old timey villain]

Every single one of the Goldwater states was under title 5 for either Jim Crow or anti-Spanish laws. You generally don't snub your supporters if you want to win.

That's kind of an insult to Goldwater. He was no racist. He voted for previous civil rights bills but he voted against the one in 1964 based on small government principles. You can say what you want about him  but he was a man of his principles, and I don't think racism was one of them.

His only sin was letting the deep south believe he was as racist as they were.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Voting for the CRA wouldn't help him FL or VA.  It would have helped him in the Northeast and Upper Midwest, but he still had a lot going against him - an immoderate image that he did little to counter and the nation mourning JFK.  I can see him winning AZ, ID and possibly NE.  If there's a strong enough 3rd party candidate Goldwater doesn't win any southern states. without a 3rd party candidate Goldwater wins SC, LBJ wins LA and GA, and MS and AL go "unpledged."

and a map:

plummet in the EV, but gains in the North pretty much make up for losses in the South in the PV.

[MATTROSE94]

I believe Stevenson supported civil rights in an abstract sense, but he did pick two segregationist running mates, when asked about the issue said "civil rights are not very important," and if I'm remembering correctly implied that he thought Eisenhower was going too far sending the National Guard to integrate schools.

While granted that Stevenson's first running mate John Sparkman was a segregationist, his second running mate Estes Kefauver refused to sign the Southern Manifesto of 1956 (along with Al Gore Sr. and Lyndon Johnson) and voted in favor of the 1957 and 1960 Civil Rights Acts. I do not know how Estes Kefauver would have voted on the 1964 Civil Rights Act had he lived past 1963 though.

[SingingAnalyst]

Johnson wins big. We weren't ready for a new President.

Johnson 452
Goldwater 69
Other 17

[Indy Texas]

[Sumner 1868]

Goldwater wins NB, ID, WY, KS and probably VA and FL. All in all, though, still all the way with LBJ.

[Kushahontas]

I've often wondered this for some time. Had Barry Goldwater voted in favor of the Civil Rights Act of 1964, how would the results of that election been? Obviously, he wouldn't have gotten 87% in Mississippi or 68% in Alabama, but would have he been able to hold states like Vermont, Kansas, Nebraska and possibly even Florida and Virginia?

And how would the Deep Southern states have voted?

I really don't understand how Mississppi gave only 13% to Johnson and Alabama only 30%.  There would have had to have been like no blacks voting for that to happen.

well....see, the thing is........

[Thunderbird is the word]

Civil Rights was just one factor, and honestly even if you took that off the table along with Kennedy nostalgia Goldwater still scared the sh**t out of most people just two years after the Cuban missile crisis for his views on nuclear weapons, so even if Kennedy was alive he'd probably have gotten crushed.

[bobloblaw]

Well given the states Goldwater barely lost, CRA wasnt an issue like in ID and UT.