Bye, bye Morsi? 48 hour ultimatum from the generals

[Nhoj]

The better comparison that we should all hope doesn't happen is algeria,

[Cory]

Fierce fighting in Cairo as protests continue:

Supporters and opponents of ousted Egyptian president engage in running street battles on capital's 6th October Bridge.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2013/07/201375183931989733.html

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2013/07/05/muslim-brotherhood-site-says-egypts-new-president-is-secretly-jewish

Morsi and his supporters are such charming people aren't they?

[Franknburger]

Fierce fighting in Cairo as protests continue:

Supporters and opponents of ousted Egyptian president engage in running street battles on capital's 6th October Bridge.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2013/07/201375183931989733.html

Which raises the interesting question why, on Friday afternoon in a predominantly Muslim country, the army released the Brotherhood leaders from custody, and initially withdrew from the streets ..

[opebo]

Now, the generals really, have only one option: severe, bloody, murderous repression

Does anyone remember I recommended 'dropping the bunker-busters' on them? 

[ag]

Now, the generals really, have only one option: severe, bloody, murderous repression

Does anyone remember I recommended 'dropping the bunker-busters' on them? 

There are less radical ways I'd rather pursue. But, for once, I agree w/ you on the sentiment.

[opebo]

Now, the generals really, have only one option: severe, bloody, murderous repression

Does anyone remember I recommended 'dropping the bunker-busters' on them? 

There are less radical ways I'd rather pursue. But, for once, I agree w/ you on the sentiment.

Yeah, I know you love the smiley faces.

[Cory]

Which raises the interesting question why, on Friday afternoon in a predominantly Muslim country, the army released the Brotherhood leaders from custody, and initially withdrew from the streets ..

The Military wants to scare the "liberals" into supporting them as a bulwark against the Muslim Brotherhood's reaction. Perhaps to imply a "Military Dictatorship or Islamic State" dichotomy. Kind of like the narrative used in Assad's propaganda in Syria.

[ag]

Now, the generals really, have only one option: severe, bloody, murderous repression

Does anyone remember I recommended 'dropping the bunker-busters' on them? 

There are less radical ways I'd rather pursue. But, for once, I agree w/ you on the sentiment.

Yeah, I know you love the smiley faces.

[You kip if you want to...]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2013/07/05/muslim-brotherhood-site-says-egypts-new-president-is-secretly-jewish

Morsi and his supporters are such charming people aren't they?

The GOP have been doing it to BHO since 2007.

[Famous Mortimer]

What exactly were the complaints against Morsi?

From what I understand, there was a decree he made last year that protected the constituent assembly from judicial review.

How would judicial review even take place though? The Constituent Assembly is writing a new constitution. The Mubarak appointed courts were going to declare the new constitutional unconstitutional based on the old Mubarak era constitution? That actually does sound like something that it would be fair to try to avoid.

[Famous Mortimer]

If there are truly free elections, the Muslim Brotherhood will win again.

Again...

Top three finishers in the first round of Egypt's 2012 presidential election:

Morsi 25%
Shafik 24%
Sabahi 21%

And then in the runoff:

Morsi 52%
Shafik 48%

And that 52% in the runoff included the votes of many secular liberals who were afraid that a vote for Shafik meant a return to military rule and the days of Mubarak.  If they're more sympathetic with the military now, then I don't see how another Muslim Brotherhood candidate could win.  You might still have someone with Islamist leanings, but someone backed by the MB itself seems unlikely.

In the parliamentary elections, the Muslim Brotherhood and the Salafists won almost 2/3rds.

[Mr. Morden]

If there are truly free elections, the Muslim Brotherhood will win again.

Again...

Top three finishers in the first round of Egypt's 2012 presidential election:

Morsi 25%
Shafik 24%
Sabahi 21%

And then in the runoff:

Morsi 52%
Shafik 48%

And that 52% in the runoff included the votes of many secular liberals who were afraid that a vote for Shafik meant a return to military rule and the days of Mubarak.  If they're more sympathetic with the military now, then I don't see how another Muslim Brotherhood candidate could win.  You might still have someone with Islamist leanings, but someone backed by the MB itself seems unlikely.

In the parliamentary elections, the Muslim Brotherhood and the Salafists won almost 2/3rds.

Right, but the parliamentary elections happened earlier on, and the Islamists had lost popularity by the time of the presidential election.  Also, the Islamists were better organized early on, and other factions hadn't had time to congeal yet.

[Blue3]

Do the secularists/liberals have better party organization now?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If a victory - maybe even just a potential victory - has happened even just once (and recently) then it is always possible that it might happen in the future: who is to say that the 'new' regime might not become rather unpopular itself in short order? It isn't as though they have any serious plans to deal with the material crisis that destroyed Mubarak and weakened Morsi. Perhaps we enter the strange, ossified logic of Italian and French politics in the mature Cold War - with Islamism acting as a surreal stand in for Communism - except that the Communist Party never had a majority in either country and never had a hope in hell of gaining one. The incentive to play by the rules of democracy - or certainly to never stray beyond there mere bending - does not really exist if the game is not rigged in favour of Order...

[Mr. Morden]

Sure, there could be a backlash, and the Brotherhood could become popular again.  But, like I said, the 52% that Morsi got in the runoff last time included the votes of secular liberals who hated Shafik.  It seems unlikely that that could repeat very soon.  Eventually, sure.  But if there's a presidential election this year, I would bet against an actual member of the MB getting in.  Many in the MB might boycott the election anyway.  Of course, there could still be some flavor of Islamist who wins who is not part of the MB.

[Likely Voter]

I agree that the MB probably wouldnt win a new election but that assumes they even participate. They may stay out of it and proclaim any future govs illegitimate and They will say any gov is puppet of Israel and America.  Even worse they may (probably not overtly) support terrorism against the gov.

[Famous Mortimer]

Apparently the Nour Party backed the coup and they have enough influence with the new regime that they were able to block the appointment of ElBaradei as PM.

WTF?

[Nhoj]

Apparently the Nour Party backed the coup and they have enough influence with the new regime that they were able to block the appointment of ElBaradei as PM.

WTF?

The salafis have never liked the brotherhood. Its a bit questionable as to why they would like the military, but I suppose if they were offered strong influence they would have a good deal.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It may be worth noting that there was a massacre of Muslim Brotherhood supporters in Cairo today. At least fifty one dead.

[Famous Mortimer]

The Nour Party has suspended its support for the government as a result.

The Grand Imam of al-Azhar, who the media keeps calling the highest authority in Egyptian Islam (which I kind of doubt since he's a liberal Sufi appointed by Mubarak) has said he is going to refrain for speaking about politics until the violence is over. He was one of that people at the coup press conference alongside ElBaradei and the Coptic Pope.

[Beet]

Holy mackaroley. They did it again. Middle Eastern secularists only know one thing-- guns, guns, guns. Islamists getting too antsy in Turkey, no problem, we'll have or threaten a military coup! Uprising in Syria? Gotta be crushed by force, of course. An election in Algeria won by Islamists? Our guns will solve this problem. Islamists are the ones who get the reputation for violence, but all four Arab-Israeli wars were started by secularists on both sides, both the Ba'ath party and the Israeli Labor party. Saudi Arabia never dirtied its hands with any of that. Since the Iranian revolution in 1979, they have not started a single major war. It was Iraq that attacked Iran. It was the Afghan Communists that invited in the Soviet Union. In the grand scheme of things, Islamists have killed far fewer people in the Middle East than secular armies. I had hoped the Arab Spring had put an end to that sad chapter (outside of Syria) but the more things change!

[Rocky Rockefeller]

I am severely disappointed with the Military's behaviour, Egypt's problems can't be solve with firing bullets at citizens.

[Rocky Rockefeller]

Adly Mansour outlines timetable for new elections.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-23236534