Bye, bye Morsi? 48 hour ultimatum from the generals

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Considering that Morsi is not just Islamist, but has proven himself to be even more authoritarian than the military (which is quite a feat), I can't say any development that removes him would bother me.

I suspect that Egypt will end up like Turkey either way, there's going to be elections and they might even be mostly free and fair, but the military is still going to oust any government they don't like.

[badgate]

Strong mixed feelings. We'll see what happens. Unless he resigns, I worry about the effect this will have on democracy over there.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

He's not going willingly, but I don't think he has much of a choice.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The greater evil is a president who's violently rejected by up to 48% of his population and doesn't seem to give a sh!t about it. That's the basic problem... from day one he acted as if he were only the president of the 52% who voted for him and everybody else had ceased to exist the day after the election.

That was more or less Margaret Thatcher's attitude from the day she was elected until the day she was forced out by her own party.

Hasn't Obama done that? Was Nixon not the President of the "silent majority." That's basic politics.

I don't see how the current situation in the streets of Cairo are comparable to the situation in the streets of Washington, D.C.

How many people have died in anti-Obama riots recently?

[Hnv1]

This is a bomb ready to explode, it will take a very brave and powerful leader to conduct the economic changes Egypt requires. I estimate the military will take over but they will soon realize they can't be the harbingers of change and the public opinion will sway against them. When that happens protesters will find it's harder to overthrow a regime which has tanks and jet fighters...

People in the west just don't realize the extreme poverty in which most of the Egyptian society lives. Just look for the cemetery towns, millions of poor Egyptians living in ancient deserted graveyards.   

[Franknburger]

Egypt shouldn't become like Turkey was until a decade ago with the military calling all the shots and democracy being a weak facade.

I'm squeamish about the military taking control as well, but the Turkish military has been largely responsible for maintaining Turkey's secular governance.  Perhaps they can provide that kind of leadership in Egypt as well.

Secular democratic rule > Secular military rule > Islamist 'democracy'

If the Egyptian military was comparable to the Turkish one, I might to some extent get inclined to follow your line of thought, even though I feel a democratic experiment like in Egypt should be given a bit longer than just one year to see how it works out.[Democracy, in my understanding, also includes articulation of public opinion, demonstrations (though not riots), alliance-building, search for consensus etc..]

However, the Egyptian army is among the worst institutions to lead Egypt now. The press here reported today (don't know where they got their figure from) that 40% of Egypt's wealth is held by senior army ranks, which shows how corrupt they have been and most likely are still. Army officers are also exempt from any income tax. They can pose as "defenders of democracy" as long as they want - to me it is still a bunch of corrupt hacks whose prime interests are maintaining their privileges and covering-up whatever they did during the Mubarak years.

Transparent & accountable government > partial, imbalanced Islamist clean-up > Corrupt army clans retaking control

[RogueBeaver]

The military's roadmap is to suspend the constitution and dissolve parliament.

[Blue3]

... in order to hold new elections immediately.


These protests started because of Morsi forming the new constitution without the consensus of the people.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Has Morsi made any indication of what he will do? Or will he get the Allende treatment?

[RogueBeaver]

He's still defiant. Here's the AJ liveblog. So if the military follows up, things should get very interesting about 10:30 Eastern.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

President Morsi is headlining his statement as "the final hours." Coup seems imminent.

[Mr. Morden]

Top three finishers in the first round of Egypt's 2012 presidential election:

Morsi 25%
Shafik 24%
Sabahi 21%

And then in the runoff:

Morsi 52%
Shafik 48%

It's amazing to think how close we may have been to a completely different result, owing to the vote splitting and the nature of Egypt's runoff system.  In the runoff round, many secular liberals voted for Morsi because they feared that a Shafik victory meant a return to the Mubarak era and military rule.

Imagine if the vote splitting had gone a different way, and Sabahi, not Shafik, had come in second and advanced to the runoff with Morsi (or, more interestingly, if it had been Sabahi vs. Shafik with Morsi in third).  Might Sabahi then have won, forcing him to then work with an Islamist majority parliament, and perhaps being able to negotiate a compromise constitutional division of power?  We might have been spared this current mess.

Or maybe things would have been better if Egyptian voters had elected Fotouh as president, after having been swayed by his highbrow campaign ads:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o1aMIZZUaGM

[RogueBeaver]

The Army chief of staff is meeting with ElBaradei, al-Azhar's senior cleric and the Coptic pope to discuss the roadmap, per AJ. Overnight they positioned themselves in sensitive areas across the country in order to seize key institutions. According to Al-Ahram the plan is for a military leader to take the helm for 9-12 heading a transitional government while a new constitution is drawn up, then new elections.

[Mr. Morden]

According to Al-Ahram the plan is for a military leader to take the helm for 9-12 heading a transitional government while a new constitution is drawn up, then new elections.

9-12 what?  Months?

[RogueBeaver]

According to Al-Ahram the plan is for a military leader to take the helm for 9-12 heading a transitional government while a new constitution is drawn up, then new elections.

9-12 what?  Months?

Yep.

[RogueBeaver]

Presidential spokesman says it's better for Morsi to die in defense of democracy than get blamed by history.

[RogueBeaver]

NBC reporting that the military's taken over the state TV channel, told all non-essential personnel to go home early.

[RogueBeaver]

Brotherhood rep refused invitations to meet with brass.

[Mr. Morden]

The Muslim Brotherhood is claiming that there's a coup underway.  You can watch Al Jazeera English live here:

http://www.aljazeera.com/watch_now/

though they're airing a documentary right now.  Should have a big news update at the top of the hour.

[RogueBeaver]

Army COS meeting with civil society reps now. Here's an AJ thumbsketch of him.

[Hnv1]

Some claim Morsi was placed under house arrest by the Military. Morsi's deputy was forcefully kept in Egypt after trying to fly to Oman

[RogueBeaver]

Morsi's national security adviser says the coup is underway. Still no reports of any units moving.

[RogueBeaver]

Travel ban imposed on Morsi and senior MB figures.

[RogueBeaver]

MB: tanks are in the streets.

[RogueBeaver]

BBC also reporting military on the move.