Future minority-majority states

[eric82oslo]

In the past, primarily in the last two decades, 4 states + Washington D.C. have turned into minority-majority states. Those states being Hawaii (23% white, as of 2010), California (40% white), New Mexico (40% white) and Texas (45% white).

Now I've done some projections based on the 2010 Census for a number of US states, and I've come to the conclusion that within the next 20 years, another 10 or 11 states will have turned minority-majority. 6 of them actually within the next 10 years. Washington, Louisiana, Alabama, Colorado, Alaska, Massachusetts & South Carolina should also turn minority-majority in about 25-35 years from now.

This is the year by which I've calculated that each of these 31 states will turn into minority-majority:

Nevada: 2014
Maryland: 2016 (or 2017)
Georgia: 2018
Florida: 2021
New Jersey: 2022
Arizona: 2022
Delaware: 2028

New York: 2032
Mississippi: 2032
Virginia: 2033
North Carolina: 2034
Oklahoma: 2036 (or 2037)
Illinois: 2037
Connecticut: 2038 (or 2039)
Washington: 2039 (or 2040)

Louisiana: 2042
Alabama: 2042 (or 2043)
Colorado: 2044 (or 2045)
Alaska: 2046
Massachusetts: 2046
South Carolina: 2048
Arkansas: 2049

Oregon: 2052
Nebraska: 2052
Indiana: 2052
Rhode Island: 2053
Kansas: 2053
Tennessee: 2053 (or 2054)
Minnesota: 2056
Utah: 2057
Pennsylvania: 2057

States that won't go minority-majority for quite a while yet (year to do so extremely uncertain of course):

South Dakota: 2066
Idaho: 2071
Iowa: 2072
Missouri: 2077 (or 2078)
Wisconsin: 2080 (or 2081)
Ohio: 2080 (or 2081)
Wyoming: 2096
North Dakota: 2097 [though likely to happen (much) sooner than this due to its recent oil boom]
Kentucky: 2100
Michigan: 2118 [yet with renewed growth, this might change/speed up]
New Hampshire: 2121
Montana: 2151
Maine: 2186
Vermont: 2202
West Virginia: 2318 [this explains why WV has skewed more rapidly Republican than any other state during the past few elections! this trend will obviously continue, long-term at least]

In what ways do you think that these changes might affect future presidential elections? And other elections for that matter.

Since Texas already turned minority-majority in 2004, while Arizona will have to wait for another 18 years longer than Texas, does that mean that Texas' electorate will change more rapidly towards the Democratic party than the electorate of Arizona? It is expected that only 38% of the Texas population will be white by 2020, compared to 44% being Hispanic. The equivalent for Arizona will be 51% white and 34% Hispanic.

And New Jersey is changing its demographic more rapidly than its big brother New York. Might that imply that the shift towards Democrats will happen more rapidly in New Jersey?

An interesting fact is that Colorado is quite different from most of the other so-called "latino states" in that a whole 70% of its population were white in 2010. Even by 2020, that percentage will only have decreased to 64%. Does this mean that Colorado might very well remain a battleground state for several decades? Could it even mean that Colorado might eventually even skew slightly towards the Republican party again?

To end on a high note: Nevada will probably turn minority-majority already sometime next year.

[Non Swing Voter]

"In what ways do you think that these changes might affect future presidential elections? And other elections for that matter."

Obviously this will favor Democrats because it will make some battleground states blue and some red states battleground states. 

"Since Texas already turned minority-majority in 2005, while Arizona will have to wait for another 17 years longer than Texas, does that mean that Texas' electorate will change more rapidly towards the Democratic party than the electorate of Arizona? It is expected that only 38% of the Texas population will be white by 2020, compared to 44% being Hispanic. The equivalent for Arizona will be 51% white and 34% Hispanic."

Possibly, but the larger hispanic population in Texas is countered by a more polarized electorate and more conservative white voters.  Also, Texas is a much bigger state, so it would be harder to swing, so I think that despite Democrats saying they will compete there, they won't for some time.  Arizona on the other hand has a lot of west coast whites and is much smaller, so it is probably a more appealing swing state target and the elections will probably be closer in the future than Texas.

"And New Jersey is changing its demographic more rapidly than its big brother New York. Might that imply that the shift towards Democrats will happen more rapidly in New Jersey?"

They are both extremely Democratic states anyways.  White voters there are probably slightly less Democratic than in New York, but the increasing minority population will probably give Democrats a larger margin.  I was pretty surprised by the margins in New Jersey and Maryland last election, but looking back, it was almost completely due to minority voters.  As opposed to states that are actually more socially liberal, like Connecticut where the margin was smaller because the electorate is more elastic.  Minority voters are just not voting for Republicans and it's going to destroy that party if they don't fix the problem fast.

"An interesting fact is that Colorado is quite different from most of the other so-called "latino states" in that a whole 70% of its population were white in 2010. Even by 2020, that percentage will only have decreased to 64%. Does this mean that Colorado might very well remain a battleground state for several decades? Could it even mean that Colorado might eventually even skew slightly towards the Republican party again?"

No.  If the electorate was super polarized like in Texas, maybe.  But if anything, Colorado will shift further to the left because it is more urban, left of center, and diverse than the average state.  It's pretty much the same scenario as Virginia.  The minority population is getting a little bit bigger and the white population is getting a little less conservative.  I'd be shocked if both Colorado and Virginia didn't continue to trend heavily Democratic.  Republicans have a better chance in the midwest in the future.

[eric82oslo]

Just calculated Mississippi as well, and guess what? It will og minority-majority before Colorado and Alaska - by 2032 - despite the white and black populations remaining quite constant in the state. The main reason for the semi-quick shift thus is due to influx of Hispanics and other racial minorities, including the multiracial.

Oh, and Virginia too actually. By 2033. And North Carolina the year after that, in 2034. Also Louisiana, about 2042.

[greenforest32]

Oregon: 2052

Neat. These trends haven't been helping Republicans here. One of their main concerns about the automatic voter registration bill proposed this year by the Oregon Secretary of State was that it would increase the number of Hispanics voting in Oregon which would, among other things, endanger several of their state house and state senate seats in Salem, OR and suburban Washington county (Hillsboro, etc) due to the increased turn-out among minorities.

And if that craven political hackishness isn't enough, they're now organizing a referendum on the undocumented driver's license bill the state legislature passed this year: http://www.oregonrepublicanparty.org/node/3535

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^^^ More lies and fear-mongering too as the automatic voter registration bill would only register people from the DMV database if said individuals' citizenship was verified in the database.

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[tpfkaw]

It's somewhat silly to assume that demographic trends will continue at the same rate indefinitely.  If you did so in 1963, for example, you would be predicting that right about now Mississippi would be whiter than Vermont.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

It's somewhat silly to assume that demographic trends will continue at the same rate indefinitely.  If you did so in 1963, for example, you would be predicting that right about now Mississippi would be whiter than Vermont.

This. In addition it doesn't account for the fact that the definition of "white" will surely expand to include about 70% of Latinos, as it expanded for Irish, Italians, Slavs, etc., and that immigration from Latin America has already peaked.

[tpfkaw]

It's somewhat silly to assume that demographic trends will continue at the same rate indefinitely.  If you did so in 1963, for example, you would be predicting that right about now Mississippi would be whiter than Vermont.

This. In addition it doesn't account for the fact that the definition of "white" will surely expand to include about 70% of Latinos, as it expanded for Irish, Italians, Slavs, etc., and that immigration from Latin America has already peaked.

I'm not necessarily sure that's necessarily the case either though.  There's an important distinction in that there is now a significant financial incentive for Hispanics not to consider themselves "white," that being affirmative action, racial set-asides, hiring discrimination laws etc., all of which did not exist back in the days of Irish, Italian, and Eastern European immigration.

In fact, a lot of the growth in Hispanic numbers has not been due to immigration or birth but rather everyone and their brother who can dig up a Puerto Rican great-grandparent redesignating themselves as "Hispanic" from "white."  You, for example, would almost certainly have considered yourself "white" 30 years ago and probably have been angered if someone suggested otherwise.

[eric82oslo]

I came across this site that says:

_The District of Columbia, Hawaii, California, New Mexico and Texas have minority populations greater than 50 percent. By 2020, eight more states are projected to join the list: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Maryland, Mississippi, Nevada, New Jersey and New York. Latinos already outnumber whites in New Mexico; California will tip to a Latino plurality next year.


http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/03/17/latinos-blur-racial-lines_n_2895378.html

You might want to revise the New York and Mississippi forecast, OP. Especially New York.

New York is uncertain, but changes were not very prominent between 2000 and 2010. The overall white and black population, which made up 72% in 2010, shrank ever so slightly. Yet the Hispanic population didn't increase much either, only by 19% (while many states saw its Hispanic population increase by more than 100%). I have estimated the white population to be 54.2% by 2020, but that might very well be too "optimistic" of course. Usually the states have a tendency to change much more rapidly when they approach the "tipping point", meaning their white population is somewhere between 40% and 60% - we saw that with Texas last decade - and that's exactly where New York is now. Their white population was 58% in 2010.

Mississippi didn't change much at all during 2000 to 2010. The only exception was their Hispanic population, which more than doubled. But Hispanics still made up just 3% of the entire population in 2010.

[eric82oslo]

These are my projections for how much percentage decrease the white population will see in each state during this decade (2010-2020), based on the assumption that each racial subgroup will continue to grow or subtract at the same rate in each state as they did during past decade (2000-2010).

Decrease in each state’s white population 2010-2020 (projected):

Nevada: -12.3%
Delaware: -8.6%
Maryland: -8.5%
Georgia: -8.2%
Florida: -7.9%
Washington: -7.9%
New Jersey: -7.8%
Nebraska: -7.7%
Indiana: -7.6%
Connecticut: -7.4%
Massachusetts: -7.3%
Oklahoma: -7.3%
Arizona: -7.2%
Minnesota: -7.2%
Texas: -6.9%
California: -6.8%
Virginia: -6.8%
Oregon: -6.6%
Kansas: -6.6%
Arkansas: -6.6%
North Carolina: -6.4%
Utah: -6.4%
Iowa: -6.3%
Pennsylvania: -6.2%
South Dakota: -6.2%

:::Median: -6.15%::

Rhode Island: -6.1%
Tennessee: -6%
Colorado: -5.8%
Idaho: -5.7%
Alabama: -5.3%
Illinois: -5.2%
Wisconsin: -4.7%
Missouri: -4.6%
North Dakota: -4.5% (with the oil boom it will probably be higher than this)
Ohio: -4.4%
Wyoming: -4.3%
New Mexico: -4%
Kentucky: -4%
Alaska: -3.9%
New York: -3.8%
Mississippi: -3.8%
New Hampshire: -3.8%
South Carolina: -3.7%
Louisiana: -3.2% (this low number is probably due to hurricane Katrina, so might need to be upgraded)
Montana: -2.7%
Michigan: -2.5% (probably this low due to the auto crisis)
Maine: -2.5%
Vermont: -2.3%
West Virginia: -1.4%
Hawaii: -0.3%

For a few states, like Louisiana, North Dakota, Michigan and possibly even Arizona and Nevada, I would say that it's very likely that the percentage decrease could be much stronger or less strong than indicated above. For the other states the level of error should be within a point or two I think.

Nevada on the top, plus Hawaii (due to its already "microscopic" white population) and West Virginia, really stand out from this list. It will be interesting to see if Nevada can manage to maintain the same high level of development and growth as they witnessed the last decade. The current financial crisis might make it difficult. Who knows. On the sunny side, Nevada is still a very sparsely populated state, just like Utah and New Mexico as well.

Take good look at the swing states. In particular Florida has a very, very high growth in its minority population. As a percentage, the white share of Florida's population is expected to sink with almost 8% this decade alone. That could mean a lot for its current status as prime battleground state. Yet in 2012, it still swung Republican by 3%. So it should remain as a battleground state for one or two presidential elections more, at least. Nevada is probably gone for ever though.

My prediction is that the reduced share of white voters will have the greatest impact on battleground states and traditionally Republican states which experience a higher growth (or a faster decrease in the white population) than the national average. This should mean that states heavily affected should include Georgia, Florida, Nebraska, Indiana, Oklahoma, Arizona, Texas, Virginia, Kansas, Arkansas, North Carolina and possibly even Utah. Especially the first 8 of these states should all be heavily affected once time has taken its toll. We're already seeing it in Georgia, Florida, Virginia and North Carolina. We saw it in Indiana in 2008. And I'm sure we'll see it in Arizona and Texas as well, in 2016 and/or 2020. The remaining states might possibly take a little more time, as the white population are becoming increasingly Republican in those states.

PS: *In italic are the states which came within 10% of the popular vote in 2012. In bold are the 15 most populous states.

[barfbag]

Well Texas still votes Republican as a minority state so there's still hope for us.

[The Free North]

It's somewhat silly to assume that demographic trends will continue at the same rate indefinitely.  If you did so in 1963, for example, you would be predicting that right about now Mississippi would be whiter than Vermont.

Strong this.


Demographic trends are not at all static. IF we assume that hispanic growth will be similar to that of the 1990-2007 period, than yes, many of these predictions would be accurate. However, recent trends signal we have entered into a new era.

1) Immigration to the US from hispanic nations has reached a standstill
2) Birthrates are dropping across the board, yes white birth rates are lower, but birth rates are dropping the fastest amongst immigrant communities
3) Birthrates back in Latin America are dropping as well, Mexico is almost near replacement level
4) "White" may possibly come to include some hispanic americans as well (Cubans, Argentinians, etc)

What the OP did is similar to taking the boom in Italian and southern european immigration in the 1900-1920 period and extrapolate it out 50 years. Based on that time period, NY should be about 60% italian, when in reality its much less than that.

Going forward I think birth rates across the board drop to the point where they are all relatively equal in about 20-30 years (trends in other nations say they only drop so far before leveling off).

[old timey villain]

It's somewhat silly to assume that demographic trends will continue at the same rate indefinitely.  If you did so in 1963, for example, you would be predicting that right about now Mississippi would be whiter than Vermont.

Strong this.


Demographic trends are not at all static. IF we assume that hispanic growth will be similar to that of the 1990-2007 period, than yes, many of these predictions would be accurate. However, recent trends signal we have entered into a new era.

1) Immigration to the US from hispanic nations has reached a standstill
2) Birthrates are dropping across the board, yes white birth rates are lower, but birth rates are dropping the fastest amongst immigrant communities
3) Birthrates back in Latin America are dropping as well, Mexico is almost near replacement level
4) "White" may possibly come to include some hispanic americans as well (Cubans, Argentinians, etc)

What the OP did is similar to taking the boom in Italian and southern european immigration in the 1900-1920 period and extrapolate it out 50 years. Based on that time period, NY should be about 60% italian, when in reality its much less than that.

Going forward I think birth rates across the board drop to the point where they are all relatively equal in about 20-30 years (trends in other nations say they only drop so far before leveling off).

Yes but in Georgia most of the minority growth is coming from African Americans, so you're statistics don't apply to every tipping point state.  If we do see a large slowdown in hispanic growth that will certainly affect states like California, Nevada, maybe Texas and Arizona, but it won't affect states like Mississippi, Georgia and Maryland as much (in terms of minority growth)

[barfbag]

I'm thinking we'll become a minority by the 30's.

[Frodo]

I'm thinking we'll become a minority by the 30's.

By 'we' you mean white Floridians? 

[barfbag]

I'm thinking we'll become a minority by the 30's.

By 'we' you mean white Floridians? 

Whites in general.

[The Free North]

It's somewhat silly to assume that demographic trends will continue at the same rate indefinitely.  If you did so in 1963, for example, you would be predicting that right about now Mississippi would be whiter than Vermont.

Strong this.


Demographic trends are not at all static. IF we assume that hispanic growth will be similar to that of the 1990-2007 period, than yes, many of these predictions would be accurate. However, recent trends signal we have entered into a new era.

1) Immigration to the US from hispanic nations has reached a standstill
2) Birthrates are dropping across the board, yes white birth rates are lower, but birth rates are dropping the fastest amongst immigrant communities
3) Birthrates back in Latin America are dropping as well, Mexico is almost near replacement level
4) "White" may possibly come to include some hispanic americans as well (Cubans, Argentinians, etc)

What the OP did is similar to taking the boom in Italian and southern european immigration in the 1900-1920 period and extrapolate it out 50 years. Based on that time period, NY should be about 60% italian, when in reality its much less than that.

Going forward I think birth rates across the board drop to the point where they are all relatively equal in about 20-30 years (trends in other nations say they only drop so far before leveling off).

Yes but in Georgia most of the minority growth is coming from African Americans, so you're statistics don't apply to every tipping point state.  If we do see a large slowdown in hispanic growth that will certainly affect states like California, Nevada, maybe Texas and Arizona, but it won't affect states like Mississippi, Georgia and Maryland as much (in terms of minority growth)

Of course in the south, much of the minority growth is from african americans not Hispanics, but what we have to realize is that this is 2013, global birth rates are dropping like a rock outside of Sub-Saharan Africa. Places like Japan and Eastern Europe have bottomed out already, and america is getting close.

Look at this article here:

http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2012/05/17/explaining-why-minority-births-now-outnumber-white-births/

The difference in birthrate is not that large at all.

Whites/Asians: 1.8
Blacks: 2.1
Latino: 2.4

All continue to decline, with latinos experiencing the largest decline percentage wise. Compare that to some countries in SSA with birth rates over 5 and you'll understand that what we are seeing today is not a big difference at all.

Ultimately, based on the demographic transition model, we can expect blacks to enter stage 5 soon and latinos not that far after that, especially considering declines in latin american birth rates.

I believe that by 2030, we will see all ethnicities below replacement level at which time the US population will stabilize.

Based on that prediction, I think we can reasonable predict the following:

Majority minority states
-California
-New Mexico
-Possibly Texas

High minority percentage (35%+)
-Arizona
-Colorado
-Nevada
-Mississippi
-Georgia
-Florida
-New York

[The Free North]

Also see this article

http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2012/11/29/u-s-birth-rate-falls-to-a-record-low-decline-is-greatest-among-immigrants/

[old timey villain]

It's somewhat silly to assume that demographic trends will continue at the same rate indefinitely.  If you did so in 1963, for example, you would be predicting that right about now Mississippi would be whiter than Vermont.

Strong this.


Demographic trends are not at all static. IF we assume that hispanic growth will be similar to that of the 1990-2007 period, than yes, many of these predictions would be accurate. However, recent trends signal we have entered into a new era.

1) Immigration to the US from hispanic nations has reached a standstill
2) Birthrates are dropping across the board, yes white birth rates are lower, but birth rates are dropping the fastest amongst immigrant communities
3) Birthrates back in Latin America are dropping as well, Mexico is almost near replacement level
4) "White" may possibly come to include some hispanic americans as well (Cubans, Argentinians, etc)

What the OP did is similar to taking the boom in Italian and southern european immigration in the 1900-1920 period and extrapolate it out 50 years. Based on that time period, NY should be about 60% italian, when in reality its much less than that.

Going forward I think birth rates across the board drop to the point where they are all relatively equal in about 20-30 years (trends in other nations say they only drop so far before leveling off).

Yes but in Georgia most of the minority growth is coming from African Americans, so you're statistics don't apply to every tipping point state.  If we do see a large slowdown in hispanic growth that will certainly affect states like California, Nevada, maybe Texas and Arizona, but it won't affect states like Mississippi, Georgia and Maryland as much (in terms of minority growth)

Of course in the south, much of the minority growth is from african americans not Hispanics, but what we have to realize is that this is 2013, global birth rates are dropping like a rock outside of Sub-Saharan Africa. Places like Japan and Eastern Europe have bottomed out already, and america is getting close.

Look at this article here:

http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2012/05/17/explaining-why-minority-births-now-outnumber-white-births/

The difference in birthrate is not that large at all.

Whites/Asians: 1.8
Blacks: 2.1
Latino: 2.4

All continue to decline, with latinos experiencing the largest decline percentage wise. Compare that to some countries in SSA with birth rates over 5 and you'll understand that what we are seeing today is not a big difference at all.

Ultimately, based on the demographic transition model, we can expect blacks to enter stage 5 soon and latinos not that far after that, especially considering declines in latin american birth rates.

I believe that by 2030, we will see all ethnicities below replacement level at which time the US population will stabilize.

Based on that prediction, I think we can reasonable predict the following:

Majority minority states
-California
-New Mexico
-Possibly Texas

High minority percentage (35%+)
-Arizona
-Colorado
-Nevada
-Mississippi
-Georgia
-Florida
-New York

Yeah, I agree with you there. Birthrates are declining across the board. But the growth of African Americans in a state like Georgia isn't really due to birthrates, it's because of migration from other states. That looks likely continue over the next decade or so which will help propel Georgia to majority/minority status eventually.

[eric82oslo]

I believe that by 2030, we will see all ethnicities below replacement level at which time the US population will stabilize.

Based on that prediction, I think we can reasonable predict the following:

Majority minority states
-California
-New Mexico
-Possibly Texas

Texas already gained majority minority status in 2004, is today somewhere around 42-43% white, and I don't think the white percentage of the population is going to increase substantially anytime soon.

[barfbag]

If birthrates are dropping then maybe we don't need to subsidize birth control.

[The Free North]

It's somewhat silly to assume that demographic trends will continue at the same rate indefinitely.  If you did so in 1963, for example, you would be predicting that right about now Mississippi would be whiter than Vermont.

Strong this.


Demographic trends are not at all static. IF we assume that hispanic growth will be similar to that of the 1990-2007 period, than yes, many of these predictions would be accurate. However, recent trends signal we have entered into a new era.

1) Immigration to the US from hispanic nations has reached a standstill
2) Birthrates are dropping across the board, yes white birth rates are lower, but birth rates are dropping the fastest amongst immigrant communities
3) Birthrates back in Latin America are dropping as well, Mexico is almost near replacement level
4) "White" may possibly come to include some hispanic americans as well (Cubans, Argentinians, etc)

What the OP did is similar to taking the boom in Italian and southern european immigration in the 1900-1920 period and extrapolate it out 50 years. Based on that time period, NY should be about 60% italian, when in reality its much less than that.

Going forward I think birth rates across the board drop to the point where they are all relatively equal in about 20-30 years (trends in other nations say they only drop so far before leveling off).

Yes but in Georgia most of the minority growth is coming from African Americans, so you're statistics don't apply to every tipping point state.  If we do see a large slowdown in hispanic growth that will certainly affect states like California, Nevada, maybe Texas and Arizona, but it won't affect states like Mississippi, Georgia and Maryland as much (in terms of minority growth)

Of course in the south, much of the minority growth is from african americans not Hispanics, but what we have to realize is that this is 2013, global birth rates are dropping like a rock outside of Sub-Saharan Africa. Places like Japan and Eastern Europe have bottomed out already, and america is getting close.

Look at this article here:

http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2012/05/17/explaining-why-minority-births-now-outnumber-white-births/

The difference in birthrate is not that large at all.

Whites/Asians: 1.8
Blacks: 2.1
Latino: 2.4

All continue to decline, with latinos experiencing the largest decline percentage wise. Compare that to some countries in SSA with birth rates over 5 and you'll understand that what we are seeing today is not a big difference at all.

Ultimately, based on the demographic transition model, we can expect blacks to enter stage 5 soon and latinos not that far after that, especially considering declines in latin american birth rates.

I believe that by 2030, we will see all ethnicities below replacement level at which time the US population will stabilize.

Based on that prediction, I think we can reasonable predict the following:

Majority minority states
-California
-New Mexico
-Possibly Texas

High minority percentage (35%+)
-Arizona
-Colorado
-Nevada
-Mississippi
-Georgia
-Florida
-New York

Yeah, I agree with you there. Birthrates are declining across the board. But the growth of African Americans in a state like Georgia isn't really due to birthrates, it's because of migration from other states. That looks likely continue over the next decade or so which will help propel Georgia to majority/minority status eventually.

Yes of course, I was simply talking in terms of a national perspective.

[eric82oslo]

If birthrates are dropping then maybe we don't need to subsidize birth control.

Isn't the main point with birth control to avoid unnecessary abortions, and in particular youth and teen abortions/pregnancies? I certainly don't think it is to shrink the US population. Such an argument would be valid in Africa, but hardly in a United States where the white population is considered to more or less have peaked already, and the main reason for population growth is, and will be to an even greater extent in the future, foreign immigration.

[barfbag]

If birthrates are dropping then maybe we don't need to subsidize birth control.

Isn't the main point with birth control to avoid unnecessary abortions, and in particular youth and teen abortions/pregnancies? I certainly don't think it is to shrink the US population. Such an argument would be valid in Africa, but hardly in a United States where the white population is considered to more or less have peaked already, and the main reason for population growth is, and will be to an even greater extent in the future, foreign immigration.

So it sounds like we have plenty of birth control without the government giving it to people.

[eric82oslo]

Here is my best analysis/prediction/prognosis of the non-Hispanic white population in each of the 50 states by 2020. Now this is regarding the entire population, not only adults, citizens or those eligible to vote. This should include all, many or most children, prisioners and illegial immigrants as well.

1. Hawaii - 22.7% (plurality Asians, Japanese-Americans being the biggest group)
2. California - 33.2% (plurality Hispanics)
3. New Mexico - 36% (majority Hispanics)

[Washington D.C. will probably be somewhere here, their population being currently 35.6% white, and increasing]

4. Texas - 38.1% (plurality Hispanics)
5. Nevada - 41.7%
6. Maryland - 46.5%
7. Georgia - 47.8%

8. Florida - 50.1%
9. Arizona - 50.8%
10. New Jersey - 51.2%
11. New York - 54.2%
11. Mississippi - 54.2%
13. Delaware - 56.4%
14. Louisiana - 56.8%
15. Virginia - 58.2%
16. North Carolina - 58.6%
17. Illinois - 58.8%

18. Alaska - 60.1%
19. South Carolina - 60.3%
20. Oklahoma - 61.7%
20. Alabama - 61.7%
22. Connecticut - 63.6%
23. Colorado - 64.2%
24. Washington - 65.1%
25. Arkansas - 68.4%
26. Massachusetts - 68.7%
27. Rhode Island - 69.9%

28. Tennessee - 70%
29. Oregon - 71.4%
29. Kansas - 71.4%
31. Pennsylvania - 72.8%
32. Utah - 73.6%
33. Nebraska - 74.3%
34. Indiana - 74.4%
35. Michigan - 74.5%
36. Minnesota - 75.8%
37. Missouri - 76.4%
38. Ohio - 76.6%
39. Wisconsin - 78.3%
39. Idaho - 78.3%
41. South Dakota - 78.8%

42. Wyoming - 81.7%
43. Kentucky - 82%
44. Iowa - 82.7%
45. North Dakota - 84.5%
46. Montana - 85.3%
47. New Hampshire - 88.2%

48. Maine - 91.5%
49. West Virginia - 91.6%
50. Vermont - 91.7%

Any thoughts?

At least (most likely) 17 states [+ D.C.] will have a less than 60% white population by 2020, that's quite a bit! At least 7 states, possibly as many as 10, will be minority-majority by that year.

To visualize the changes, this is how the US will look like in 2020 in terms of whiteness (red being majority non-white, blue still having a white minority).



If it was an electoral map, it would wield 131 vs 407 EVs.

[greenforest32]

Any thoughts?

Nice informative posts. Delaware and Connecticut are surprising to me. I don't know why but for some reason I thought they were 90%+ white like Maine. To see them drop below 60% and 65% white by 2020 is kind of a shock. I guess I haven't been paying attention to state demographic trends.

So these threads are pretty interesting to read!