EU elections predictions!

[Peter]

I don't think that UKIP will do as well as some polling has suggested, I think my prediction of 10% is fair, but if they start pushing on for 13%, seats will start tumbling as they pick up two seats in some regions. Labour will probably collapse in the South, I reckon they will drop to 4th in the SW and maybe also the SE; The only reason they will stay afloat in London is on Ken Livingstone's coattails.

[freek]

Here are the final predictions

    P  S  L  G  C U E  X M O
AT  6  7  0  2  0 0 0  1 0 2 18

A new party in Austria?

[andrewa]

Here are the final predictions

      P  S    L  G  C U  E  X M O
IT 26 14 15  3  5  9 0  2 4  0 78

P CON + CHRIST DEMS
S SOCIALIST
L LIBERAL CENTRISTS
G GREENS
C LEFT
U NATIONALIST
E ANTI-EU
X BAD GUYS (FN, VLAAMSBLOK, SAMOOBRONIE)
M INDEPENDENTS
O NO IDEA (NEW PARTIES)

Have you an explanation about this (polls for each party ?)
Could you give data for each party ?
In Italy situation is very complex because there's a list "Olive tree" with Socialist (Democratic Left) and ChristDems/Liberal Centrist (Margherita).
And where you put Forza Italia, Berlusconi's party ? Into P? With which party ?
And Alleanza Nazionale, you considers this party U?
Thank you,

[CO-OWL]

Here are the final predictions

    P  S  L  G  C U E  X M O
AT  6  7  0  2  0 0 0  1 0 2 18

A new party in Austria?

I think, it's the HPM (Hans-Peter Martin) list.
Martin is a former member of the SPÖ group in the EU parliament. His main topic seems to be the incorrect behaviour of EU parliament members in getting expenses and extra pays.
In the polls the HMP list gets 10-15% !

[freek]

I think, it's the HPM (Hans-Peter Martin) list.
Martin is a former member of the SPÖ group in the EU parliament. His main topic seems to be the incorrect behaviour of EU parliament members in getting expenses and extra pays.
In the polls the HMP list gets 10-15% !

Ok, that sounds like the Europa Transparant-party in the Netherlands. Although that party gets only about 5% in the polls here. Quite an interesting party, they want to be so open about their own finances, that they place their own bank statements online. So it's easy to see from whom they receive donations. .

http://www.europatransparant.nl/?pageid=3814

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Turnout so far in postal vote trial areas:

Leeds - 30%
Manchester - 23%
Liverpool - 23.68%
Sunderland - 34.5%
Sheffield - 28%
Newcastle - 25.49%
Hull - 19%
Bradford - 24.98%

[Peter]

Where did you get those figures Al?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Where did you get those figures Al?

BBC

[Jens]

Have you an explanation about this (polls for each party ?)
Could you give data for each party ?
In Italy situation is very complex because there's a list "Olive tree" with Socialist (Democratic Left) and ChristDems/Liberal Centrist (Margherita).
And where you put Forza Italia, Berlusconi's party ? Into P? With which party ?
And Alleanza Nazionale, you considers this party U?
Thank you,

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Hi andrewa
Forza I is a part of EPP-ED; AN is in the UAN (Union for a Europe of Nations )
you can see the list and which groups the Italian parties are a part of in the current parlament at http://www.electionworld.org/europeanunion.htm

I don't think that the numbers Ethelberth presented was completely ajusted to the parlamentary divisions in the EP. It looked like the classic newspaper list where the journalists tend to simplify

[Gustaf]

Here are the final predictions

    P  S  L  G  C U E  X M O
AT  6  7  0  2  0 0 0  1 0 2 18

A new party in Austria?

I think, it's the HPM (Hans-Peter Martin) list.
Martin is a former member of the SPÖ group in the EU parliament. His main topic seems to be the incorrect behaviour of EU parliament members in getting expenses and extra pays.
In the polls the HMP list gets 10-15% !

Yes, he got kicked out when he revealed that his colleagues were corrupted.

[Umengus]

Poll in France

BVA 2-3 june

List/results/dynamics (with recent polls)

extreme left: 4% (=)
extreme left bis: 2% (+)
Comunist: 4% (=)
socialist: 26% (-)
green: 8,5% (=)
CPNT (rural): 2,5% (-)
UDF (centrist): 11% (+)
UMP: 16,5% (- )
Souverainist (De Villiers): 7% (+)
"extreme right": 11% (=)

Sunday, UMP (Chirac, Raffarin, Sarkozy,...) could be in a very badly situation, as in 1999. UDF in front of UMP? not far for me...


A poll of CSA (3-4 june and abstention: 49%) says exactly the same.


Polls in Spain (54 seats):

list/results/EPM
PSOE: between 42,6% and 46,7% (24-27 rep)
PPE: between 37,2 and 38,4% (21 -23 rep)

The rest for communist and nationalist

Turnout: between 55 and 60%

[Gustaf]

New EOS Gallup poll for all of the EU:

http://www.eosgallupeurope.com/eosee%202004/index.html

This one actually does not seem to be all that bad...please consider the samples of about 700 and the fact that it's a little dated by now. But for Sweden it seems pretty much spot on.

[Peter]

New EOS Gallup poll for all of the EU:

http://www.eosgallupeurope.com/eosee%202004/index.html

This one actually does not seem to be all that bad...please consider the samples of about 700 and the fact that it's a little dated by now. But for Sweden it seems pretty much spot on.

This seems quite a reasonable prediction for the UK. I would like to know who the Social Democratic Party are though, I thought they disappeared at the back of the 1980s....

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The poll is a bit old... it was done before the apparent rise of UKIP...
However the SNP and PC numbers are useful.
---
The SDP merged in the LibDems. IIRC there are still a few councillers elected as "Social Democrats" though.
Welcome to the insane world of "local" politics (stop! I'll start ranting if I don't...)

[Jens]

New EOS Gallup poll for all of the EU:

http://www.eosgallupeurope.com/eosee%202004/index.html

This one actually does not seem to be all that bad...please consider the samples of about 700 and the fact that it's a little dated by now. But for Sweden it seems pretty much spot on.

It seems ok for Denmark too, but I would be very surprised if Venstre gets as good a result as they predict. Just too many of Venstres votes are the type that says "I don't know enough about EU, so i'm not going to vote." Second - I think that Folkebevægelsen mod EU will make it. It's voters are quite fatefull and do show up on sunday, but we will see. I am going to be a pulling official, so I will be able to give a eye witness report

[freek]

And I have cast my vote. . CU/SGP it is.

The latest poll, from last night:

CDA 8
PvdA 8
VVD 5
GL 2
SP 2
CU/SGP 2
D66 & Other parties 0 (however one or two of them might have a chance)

[Umengus]

And I have cast my vote. . CU/SGP it is.

The latest poll, from last night:

CDA 8
PvdA 8
VVD 5
GL 2
SP 2
CU/SGP 2
D66 & Other parties 0 (however one or two of them might have a chance)

and in % of popular votes?

[freek]

and in % of popular votes?

PvdA 25.5%
CDA 24.9%
VVD 16.0%
SP ~9 % (not mentioned in article below)
CU/SGP ~7% (not mentioned in article
GL ~6% (not mentioned in article)
================= 3.8% needed for 1 seat
PvdD (Animal's Party) 3.0%
Europa Transparant 2.9%
D66 2.7 %
LPF 2.3%

http://www.nos.nl/lijn25/europakiest/laatste_peiling.html (In Dutch).

[minionofmidas]

Whatever happened to D66!? They've had a really bad decade...being in government seems not helpful for that kinda party...
I predict that turnout in Germany will be even lower than last time - say 35% to 40% - and that the result will be almost a mirror image of the last one, except with stronger Greens and weaker PDS. Possibly slightly weaker CDU too.

[freek]

Whatever happened to D66!? They've had a really bad decade...being in government seems not helpful for that kinda party...

It's tradition for D66, everytime they are in the government they are halved. The only exception is 1977, when they slightly won. In 1982 they went from 17 to 6 seats, in 1998 from 24 to 14, in 2002 from 14 to 7. I think it is because they profile themselves as the most reasonable alternative to the PvdA (when the PvdA is in the government) of the VVD (when they are in the government). And that doesn't work if you are in the government too.

But now they are slowly growing in the polls, despite being in the government once again.

[freek]

The turnout here at 11.00am (polls opened 7.30am) was higher than in 1999, 9% instead of 7%. So that is positive, the turnout might end up above 30%. .

edit: at 03.00pm it is 15% instead of 12% in 1999.

[Peter]

The poll is a bit old... it was done before the apparent rise of UKIP...
However the SNP and PC numbers are useful.
---
The SDP merged in the LibDems. IIRC there are still a few councillers elected as "Social Democrats" though.
Welcome to the insane world of "local" politics (stop! I'll start ranting if I don't...)

I am fully aware of the history surrounding the SDP and their continuing presence in Yorkshire(?), but I find it amazing that they polled 1% in the poll despite the fact that they are fielding no candidates.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The poll is a bit old... it was done before the apparent rise of UKIP...
However the SNP and PC numbers are useful.
---
The SDP merged in the LibDems. IIRC there are still a few councillers elected as "Social Democrats" though.
Welcome to the insane world of "local" politics (stop! I'll start ranting if I don't...)

I am fully aware of the history surrounding the SDP and their continuing presence in Yorkshire(?), but I find it amazing that they polled 1% in the poll despite the fact that they are fielding no candidates.

Er...

[Jens]

...the turnout might end up above 30%. .

It's still not very impressive. I'm surprised that even the Netherlands, the turnout is very low. (Even though it's also called the Low Lands )

[Jens]

Here is the latest poll from Megafon/TV-2

SD (PES): 32,7= 5 (+2)
RV (ELDR): 7.9 = 1 (-)
KF (): 8.5 = 1 (-)
SF (EUL/NGL): 8.7 = 1 (-)
DF (UEN): 4.1 = 1 (-)
JB (EDD): 10.0 = 1 (-2)
KD (EPP-ED?) 0.5 = 0 (-)
V (ELDR): 22,5 = 3 (-2)
FB (EUL/NGL): 4,9 = 1 (-)

There is a lot of mandates that could tip one way or the other. Junibevægelsen is fairly close to a second mandate, Dansk Folkeparti is not far from losing their mandate and Venstre or Konservative both has a shot at an extra mandate because of a electoral alliance. Everything wil be decided on sunday!