EU elections predictions!

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Apparently some world-famous supermodel is running for EU parliament from Estonia.  I don't follow the world of supermodels, so I don't know who she is, but this apperently big news in the gossip columns even in America.

[CO-OWL]

Poll by Infratest-dimap

CDU/CSU (Christian Dems) 46%
SPD (Social Dems)              30%
Greens                               12%
FDP (Liberals)                      5%
PDS (Socialists)                    4%

But results are skewed the same way as freek pointed out for the Netherlands. Turnout will be low (again below 45%, I think) which normally benefits the Union
and hurts SPD.

FDP: supporters give very low priority to EU elections and they are not needed to form a coalition. Hence it's likely that they miss the 5%-threshold

PDS: local/state election in 4 Eastern German states could increase turnout in their strongholds. I wouldn't be surprised, if they got something like 5,1%.

[freek]

FDP: supporters give very low priority to EU elections and they are not needed to form a coalition. Hence it's likely that they miss the 5%-threshold

Again.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I don't think it's possible to correctly predict the results of the European elections... very few people will actuallu bother to vote...
In the U.K the Scottish Greenies are probably not big enough to win a seat and the due to the reduction of the number of seats the UK gets, the London Greenies will probably lose theirs.
---
I'm convinced that the way the elections to the EU parliament are done are wrong. A method based on the US Senate would work much better, would boost turnout, and would make MEP's representatives of The People not party lists.

[CO-OWL]

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Good idea! This would clearly be an improvement. If today you asked someone to name at least one MEP, the chance of getting no answer would be quite high in Germany. I think, in the rest of Europe it's not very different.
With party lists politicians have little incentive to turn to the voters, but struggle mainly for a safe place on the list.

 
 
 

[CO-OWL]

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9 seats? This would mean at least 8%, very, very unlikely. Last time polls gave them 5-6% and they got 3%.
 
Before the last general election in 2002 the FDP started Project18, meaning 18% of the votes! Polls in the summer had them up to 13%, on election day they got 7,4%.
 
I hope they get 5% this time.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

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Good idea! This would clearly be an improvement. If today you asked someone to name at least one MEP, the chance of getting no answer would be quite high in Germany. I think, in the rest of Europe it's not very different.
With party lists politicians have little incentive to turn to the voters, but struggle mainly for a safe place on the list.

True.
To be honest I can't name any of my MEP's...

[Gustaf]

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Good idea! This would clearly be an improvement. If today you asked someone to name at least one MEP, the chance of getting no answer would be quite high in Germany. I think, in the rest of Europe it's not very different.
With party lists politicians have little incentive to turn to the voters, but struggle mainly for a safe place on the list.

True.
To be honest I can't name any of my MEP's...

Yeah, that's true. Many of the Swedish MEPs aren't elected, people get bored so quickly of the parliament that they leave during their term and are replaced.

[FIK]

current party group fractions in the European Parliament:

seats
232 conservative christian-democrat
175 socialist social-democrat
52 libertarian liberal-democrat
49 communist
45 green
23 nationalist
17 anti-federalist
+
32 independant

[Gustaf]

Actually

PSE 232 (MAIN STREAM SOCIALISTS AND SOCIAL DEMOCRATS) THE ESTASHBLISHMENT PARTY FAVOURING ALL POSSIBLE MAJORITIAN AND STATUS QUO VIEWS
INCLUDES ALSO PRG FROM FRANCE.

PPE-ED  296 (CHRISTIAN DEMOCRATS, CONSERVATIVES AND FEEL BIG CONSERVATIVES) THE GROUP IS RATHER DIVIDED. INCLUDES PRO-CATHLOLIC CD AND EUROSKEPTICAL CONSERVATIVES AND PARTIES WHO HAVE HEARD STORIES THAT THE PPE-ED IS THE BIG PARTY OF THE PARLIAMENT.

ELDR 66 (MARKET LIBERALS, SOCIAL LIBERALS AND CENTRIST PARTIES)

GUE-NGL 55 (ALL POSSIBLE GROUPS LEFT TO PSE)

GREENS/ ARE 46 (GREENS AND REGIONALISTS)
ONE MEMBER FROM NEW STATES !!!

30 UEN ( NATIONLISTS AND CONSERVATIVE PARTIES NOT BELONGING TO PPE-ED)

18 EDD (HUNTERS, ANTI-MARKETERS AND DUTCH CALVINISTS)

45 NI (INDIPEDENT, ACTUALLY EXTREME RIGHT, LEGA NORD, ITALIAN RADICALS, MECIARITES AND PAISLY)

EDD also includes EU-critics, such as Folkbevaegelsen and Junibevaegelsen from Denmark, I believe.

[Gustaf]

The word anti-marketer refers to these EU critic movements (I found it in old English book about EP).  The future of that groups depends on fact whether the MPF (de VILLIER list)  or some other French element will join them.

One can be anti-EU without being anti-market. I am.

[freek]

Last week there was a funny incident during the registration of the party lists for the elections. The law stipulates that every candidate has to supply a copy of an ID (drivers license, passport) to the Election Commission.

One of the candidates (Maarten 't Hart, a famous writer in the Netherlands) of the Animal's Party couldn't do that however. He is principally against an ID, he doesn't have a drivers license (simpy because he couldn't pass the exam, even after trying for 10 times or so. ), and he doesn't want to have a passport. He tried it with supplying a copy of his membership card of the local library, but the Election Commission didn't accept that. . 't Hart then went to the Supreme Court, but they said that the Election Commission was right. It gave a lot of free publicity for his party however.

[English]

I don't understand how the voting for the EU parliament works. It's all PR and transferable votes and that nonsense. Why can't they just have first past the post?

[Gustaf]

Problems with PR:

1) Extremists win seats
2) Undemocratic

Better to have extremist parties in parliament than underground outside parliament. And I don't see how PR is undemocratic. 10% of the population want a party in parliament, so you give them 10% of the seats. Seems logical, I think.

It's undemocratic because it removes local representation and links to the MP/whatever.
It also gives the party bosses too much power.

Good points...it's hard to decide, both systems have their advantages and disadvantages.

I will now change my prediction:

SAP: 5 seats (change from last election: -1)

M:    4 seats (-1)

FP:   2 seats (-1)

V:     2 seats (-1)

MP:   2 seats (0)

C:     1 seat   (0)

KD:   1 seat   (-1)

JL:    1 seat   (+1)

That leaves 1 seat hanging, which I am not sure who will win. I think one of the 3 V, MP and FP will though. KD is the only party I know won't win it.

[YoMartin]

1. *cough* Hitler *cough*
2. True to a point... the problem is that party lists are used.
3. Not really true... both the Labour Party and the Lib Dems are rather decentralised... true about the Tories though.

1. Well, no electoral system could have prevented Hitler. I admit that the extremely "pure" form of PR adopted in Weimar didn´t help, but actually in the last decades there have been many breakdowns in democracies with FPTP, because permanent minorities saw no reason not to attack the system as a whole.
2. Even if there are lists, they could be open (a system I don´t like personally).
3. Still, compared to parties in most democracies, their leaders have very strong power. Anyway, I don´t see this as such a terrible problem. Parliamentarism requires discipline.

[M]

Just read through this and it was fun, even though I did not understand everything. I just want to make sure that Viivi Avellan gets a seat to prepare for her victorious run for the premiership in the next Finnish elections.

How do you think Israel would vote? If they had say, 10 setas, I would guess something like:
Likud-4
Shinui-2
Labour-1
Shas an UTJ (hareidi list)-1
Mafdal and Ichud Le'umi (far-right list)-2
Yachad-0
Arab list-0

Anyone else want to make hypothetical predictions for democracies surrounfing the EU, say Iceland, Noway,Russia, Croatia, Serbia & Montenegro, Switzerland, Ukrains, and Israel? The countries where application, however unlikely, is being considered.

[Gustaf]

Just read through this and it was fun, even though I did not understand everything. I just want to make sure that Viivi Avellan gets a seat to prepare for her victorious run for the premiership in the next Finnish elections.

How do you think Israel would vote? If they had say, 10 setas, I would guess something like:
Likud-4
Shinui-2
Labour-1
Shas an UTJ (hareidi list)-1
Mafdal and Ichud Le'umi (far-right list)-2
Yachad-0
Arab list-0

Anyone else want to make hypothetical predictions for democracies surrounfing the EU, say Iceland, Noway,Russia, Croatia, Serbia & Montenegro, Switzerland, Ukrains, and Israel? The countries where application, however unlikely, is being considered.

You mean how well internal parties woud do?

[M]

Yes, presuming the wildly implausible scenario they were admitted into the EU tomorrow and voted in these elections.

[Gustaf]

Yes, presuming the wildly implausible scenario they were admitted into the EU tomorrow and voted in these elections.

Norway will be admitted whenever they want to join. They might, sadly, do so soon.   After 2 referendums ending in 2 'no's, they shoud be content.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A poll for the E.U elections in the U.K:

Con: 28%
Lab: 27%
LD: 18%
UKIP: 14%
Grn: 6%
BNP: 3%
Nats: 2%
Other: 2%
YouGov

Please note that YouGov is probably the worst polling company... ever. Take everything they say with about 20 salt mines...

[minionofmidas]

Geesus, UKIP 14%??? More salt please!!!

[Gustaf]

Most recent Swedish poll, by a reliable company:

SAP: 35.9%

M: 24.7%

FP: 11.5%

V: 11.1%

MP: 5.9%

C: 4.4%

JL: 3.4%

KD: 2.6%

My prediction of ZERO seats for the KD is holding true. JL will get a boost now, which should be enough to give them the 4% required for a seat. SAP is WAAAAAAAAY overestimated. The respondency rate was about 51% in this poll and turnout's gonna be a lot lower than that.

[minionofmidas]

Most recent Swedish poll, by a reliable company:
SAP: 35.9%
M: 24.7%
FP: 11.5%
V: 11.1%
MP: 5.9%
C: 4.4%
JL: 3.4%
KD: 2.6%
My prediction of ZERO seats for the KD is holding true. JL will get a boost now, which should be enough to give them the 4% required for a seat. SAP is WAAAAAAAAY overestimated. The respondency rate was about 51% in this poll and turnout's gonna be a lot lower than that.

SAP = Social Democrats, M = Mainstram Conservatives, V = Commies, MP = Greens.
C = Centre? KD = Christian Democrats? FP = Rightwing populists? Or ist that elsewhere in Scandinavia? And who's JL?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Geesus, UKIP 14%??? More salt please!!!

Did you know that YouGov do their "polls" over the internet?

[M]

I'm sorry, what is a UKIP? It looks like it could be the acronym for United Kingdom Independent Party. Does this mean they are commited to centrism?