EU elections predictions!

[lidaker]

Prediction for the Swedish EU elections:

Left Party (GUE/NGL) 2 (-1)
Social Democrats (PSE) 6 (+/-0)
Greens (Greens/EFA) 1 (-1)
Centre Party (ELDR) 1 (+/-0)
Liberal Party (ELDR) 3 (+/-0)
Libertarians/Conservatives (EPP-ED) 5 (+/-0)
Christian Democrats (EPP-ED) 0 (-2)
June Ballot (EDD) 1 (-)

Hm, that's like a mirror image of my current prediction... (I don't remember if I updated the last one here on the forum though). Though, I think that C might lose their seat. Also, SAP might still fall badly, their voters won't vote on electino day, I think. JL might surprise and get a 2nd seat, but that would require luck, obviously. It could happen if both C and KD get below 4% though.  

True. S voters are probably the ones least inclined to go out and vote. The got only 26% last time and turnout will probably be even lower this time, so it's perfectly possible they'll get only 5 seats. And I agree that it's possible that C and KD will get 0 seats, since their voters are soffliggare and EU-skeptics as well. June Ballot could also get 0 seats. But let's say S gets 5, C and KD 0 and June Ballot 1. That makes two remaining seats. Turnout among greens and leftists will probably not be very high either, so it's possible that those three seats go to M and FP. That means M gets 30% and FP 20%. Turnout must be very low among left-of-center folks for that to happen and significantly higher among right-of-center-voters.

Alternative scenario:
Left Party (GUE/NGL) 2 (-1)
Social Democrats (PSE) 5 (-1)
Greens (Greens/EFA) 1 (-1)
Centre Party (ELDR) 0 (-1)
Liberal Party (ELDR) 4 (+1)
Libertarians/Conservatives (EPP-ED) 6 (+1)
Christian Democrats (EPP-ED) 0 (-2)
June Ballot (EDD) 1 (-)

I don't think it will happen though since turnout isn't likely to be that much higher among right-of-center voters.

[Gustaf]

Prediction for the Swedish EU elections:

Left Party (GUE/NGL) 2 (-1)
Social Democrats (PSE) 6 (+/-0)
Greens (Greens/EFA) 1 (-1)
Centre Party (ELDR) 1 (+/-0)
Liberal Party (ELDR) 3 (+/-0)
Libertarians/Conservatives (EPP-ED) 5 (+/-0)
Christian Democrats (EPP-ED) 0 (-2)
June Ballot (EDD) 1 (-)

Hm, that's like a mirror image of my current prediction... (I don't remember if I updated the last one here on the forum though). Though, I think that C might lose their seat. Also, SAP might still fall badly, their voters won't vote on electino day, I think. JL might surprise and get a 2nd seat, but that would require luck, obviously. It could happen if both C and KD get below 4% though.  

True. S voters are probably the ones least inclined to go out and vote. The got only 26% last time and turnout will probably be even lower this time, so it's perfectly possible they'll get only 5 seats. And I agree that it's possible that C and KD will get 0 seats, since their voters are soffliggare and EU-skeptics as well. June Ballot could also get 0 seats. But let's say S gets 5, C and KD 0 and June Ballot 1. That makes two remaining seats. Turnout among greens and leftists will probably not be very high either, so it's possible that those three seats go to M and FP. That means M gets 30% and FP 20%. Turnout must be very low among left-of-center folks for that to happen and significantly higher among right-of-center-voters.

Alternative scenario:
Left Party (GUE/NGL) 2 (-1)
Social Democrats (PSE) 5 (-1)
Greens (Greens/EFA) 1 (-1)
Centre Party (ELDR) 0 (-1)
Liberal Party (ELDR) 4 (+1)
Libertarians/Conservatives (EPP-ED) 6 (+1)
Christian Democrats (EPP-ED) 0 (-2)
June Ballot (EDD) 1 (-)

I don't think it will happen though since turnout isn't likely to be that much higher among right-of-center voters.

I think June Ballot (if that's our translation of Junilistan... ) stands a better chance of getting a seat, simply since it's a new party with a positive trend. With 3.4% in the last Sifo they're only 0.6% from a seat. C and KD are both going down completely I suspect, since they're out of touch with their voters and have weak candidates. C has a strong party organisation, but that's their only hope. I think FP is likely to get 3 seats, since I expect them to have very high turnout. The same goes for M.

Something like this, perhaps:

SAP: 5

M:    5

FP:   3

V:     3

MP:   1

JL:     1

C:      0

KD:    0

The required percentages for seats are, roughly:

1 seat:  4%

2 seats: 8%

3 seats: 13.5%

4 seats: 18.5%

5 seats: 24%

6 seats: 29%

7 seats: 34.5%

This will be slightly lower though if 2 parties get less than 4%, as in the above scenario. I think FP is likely to get bout 13.5% due to higher turnout. V also has more determined voters when it comes to European electinos, C, KD and SAP have the least interested voters in these elections. I have only distributed 18 seats above, the last one I'm not sure of, but I think that MP or June Ballot could get it, with something like 6-7% (MP being favoured right now).

[lidaker]

Did you read this?

http://www.svd.se/dynamiskt/inrikes/did_7475439.asp

Says turnout is highest among FP voters, followed by KD voters(!), M voters, V voters, S voters, C voters and MP voters. 51% of MP voters are sure not no vote, which is why I don't think they'll get two seats, they might even lose the two they currently have. If you want to protest vote Jonas Sjöstedt (V) is probably a more well-known alternative. And besides, all parties seem to be EU-skeptics nowadays, so MP getting much of the NO-voters' votes might belong to the past.

UPDATED
The required percentages (100-4)/18=5,33:
1 seat: 4%
2 seats: 9,3%
3 seats: 14,6%
4 seats: 20,0%
5 seats: 25,3%
6 seats: 30,6%
7 seats: 36,0%

That is, if it's true that you get a seat if you're above 4%, should be 100/19=5,26%.

[Gustaf]

Did you read this?

http://www.svd.se/dynamiskt/inrikes/did_7475439.asp

Says turnout is highest among FP voters, followed by KD voters(!), M voters, V voters, S voters, C voters and MP voters. 51% of MP voters are sure not no vote, which is why I don't think they'll get two seats, they might even lose the two they currently have. If you want to protest vote Jonas Sjöstedt (V) is probably a more well-known alternative. And besides, all parties seem to be EU-skeptics nowadays, so MP getting much of the NO-voters' votes might belong to the past.

UPDATED
The required percentages (100-4)/18=5,33:
1 seat: 4%
2 seats: 9,3%
3 seats: 14,6%
4 seats: 20,0%
5 seats: 25,3%
6 seats: 30,6%
7 seats: 36,0%

That is, if it's true that you get a seat if you're above 4%, should be 100/19=5,26%.

Nah, the media messed that up big time...I made calculations based on several polls using the actual method, and those are the results. You can look up "jämkade uddatalsmetoden" in NE if you want and replicate it, or oyu can just trust me on my word...

It's actually like this:

1 seat:  2.7%

2 seats: 8.2%

etc, but since 4% is required to get seats at all, I put that instead of 2.7%. Sorry if it was confusing.  

Yes, I did see that, I based my prediction of the turnout on that...however, you have to keep in mind that the MoE gets really big once you start doing smaller parties like that. I am basing my predictions on a pretty thourough study of the polls leading up to the euro-referendum. They all pointed at turnout being relatively high among socialists (v) and Greens (mp).

[lidaker]

Hmm... seems a little too complicated for me right now...

[Gustaf]

Hmm... seems a little too complicated for me right now...

Lol, it isn't all that complicated. In fact, much less so than I thought. Rule of thumb: every party will get a seat for every full 5.3% they recieve. Then, those who are closest to a full seat will get the remaining seats. (that is not actually how it works technically, but it's a simplified way of explaining the general idea). Half of 5.3% is 2.65%. You need slightly above that to be close to a seat. I used the correct method on 3 different polls and got 2.74%, 2.74% and 2.76% respectively as the required percentages for 1 seat. 5.3%+2.7%=8%. (in fact it has been 8.2% for 2 seats when I applied the method, but those are all rough numbers anyway). This could actually be lower if 1 or more parties drop below 4%.  

[freek]

Predictions for 2004 (24 seats)
(13 for NL and 11 for FR)


VLD: 1 or 2
MR: 3
CVP+ NVA (ex-VU): 4 or 5
PSC: 2
PS: 4 or 5
SP+ Spirit (ex-VU): 3
ECOLO: 1 or 2
Agalev: 0 or 1
VB: 3
FN: 0 or 1

CVP is renamed CD&V now, PSC is CDH. .

Compared to the national elections of last year, that is a huge win for the CD&V, and a huge loss for the VLD. Interesting.

For which party is the seat for the German community? The christian democrats again?

[Umengus]

Your predictions are strange since
http://www.elections2004.eu.int/ep-election/sites/fi/
FR 9
DE 1
NL 14

this would mean that only 1 seat for VLD sounds
highly unlikely
their support in polls has been at least 15 % which
means at least  2 seats, does it
the voter apathy should hurt anybody in Belgium

so

  NL    FR      DE     BE   99
P 5     1+1     1      7  (+2)
S 3      4                7   (+2)
X 3                        3    (+1)
L 2       2                2    (- 3)
G 1      1                 2   (-5)

huge drop for greens,
actually the destiny of greens in elections
depend their succes in Germany and UK
Dutch, Finns and Swedes greens
will loose also and new coutries are not green
strongholds.

There is a problem with the number of seats and the constituencies. You are right I think but they wanted reform the system with another way and consequently it's not clear but ok you are right. I agree with your predictions behalve for MR and CDH: I say one for P in FR  and 3 for L in FR (and 2+2=4, not 2;) )

[freek]

Latest opinion poll in The Netherlands (not exact number of seats, because those are hard to predict because of the Dutch electoral system and the expected low turnout):

Total 27 seats

CDA 9-10 seats (EPP)
Pvda 6-7 (PES)
VVD 5-6 (ELDR)
CU/SGP 2-3 (EDD)
SP 1-2 (UEL/NGL)
GL 1-2 (Greens)
Animal's Party 0-1
Europe Transparent 0-1
D66 0-1 (ELDR)
Pim Fortuyn List 0-1

And it was more probable that the Animal's Party and Europe Transparent get a seat than D66 or LPF.

Europe Transparent is founded by Paul van Buitenen. He worked for the European Union in Brussels for years. A few years ago he was a whistleblower, it was about fraud in the EU. Mostly because of his reports the European Commission (led by Jacques Santer) had to resign, and Van Buitenen was fired as reward. And now he wants to return to Brussels, to continue his investigations as a MEP.

[Gustaf]

Latest opinion poll in The Netherlands (not exact number of seats, because those are hard to predict because of the Dutch electoral system and the expected low turnout):

Total 27 seats

CDA 9-10 seats (EPP)
Pvda 6-7 (PES)
VVD 5-6 (ELDR)
CU/SGP 2-3 (EDD)
SP 1-2 (UEL/NGL)
GL 1-2 (Greens)
Animal's Party 0-1
Europe Transparent 0-1
D66 0-1 (ELDR)
Pim Fortuyn List 0-1

And it was more probable that the Animal's Party and Europe Transparent get a seat than D66 or LPF.

Europe Transparent is founded by Paul van Buitenen. He worked for the European Union in Brussels for years. A few years ago he was a whistleblower, it was about fraud in the EU. Mostly because of his reports the European Commission (led by Jacques Santer) had to resign, and Van Buitenen was fired as reward. And now he wants to return to Brussels, to continue his investigations as a MEP.

I hope Van Buitenen gets in.

The Centre Party is finally dropping in the polls, 4,8% in yesterday's poll. June Ballot still at about 3.5%, as is KD. THe others aren't going anywhere either it seems.

[Ben.]

Looks like Kilroy Silk and the UKIP will win a few seats... And if their is any justice Galloway will be humiliated, I really doubt that that Trot and his cronies will get a single seat and i really hope I'm right on that.

On Europe and the EU I personally think its good that UKIP and the Greens do well as that should help shatter the sense of inevitability in greater and great EU integration. It does worry me a fair bit and most of my friends here in the UK.

But Kilroy and the Greens can hopefully "rattle some cages"

That said, the UKIP does worry me a bit, not Kilroy he seems vain but not a radical and seems well intentioned, the leadership of UKIP however seem to represents a very very conservative brand of political thought…but not of the lunatic and down-right dangerous brand extolled by the thugs in the BNP…  

[Gustaf]

Looks like Kilroy Silk and the UKIP will win a few seats... And if their is any justice Galloway will be humiliated, I really doubt that that Trot and his cronies will get a single seat and i really hope I'm right on that.

On Europe and the EU I personally think its good that UKIP and the Greens do well as that should help shatter the sense of inevitability in greater and great EU integration. It does worry me a fair bit and most of my friends here in the UK.

But Kilroy and the Greens can hopefully "rattle some cages"

That said, the UKIP does worry me a bit, not Kilroy he seems vain but not a radical and seems well intentioned, the leadership of UKIP however seem to represents a very very conservative brand of political thought…but not of the lunatic and down-right dangerous brand extolled by the thugs in the BNP…  

Thanks Ben. The UKIP are a bunch of nutjobs, but in the European elections it doesn't matter much, so it's be fun to see them get in and scare the sh*t out of the establsihement.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yes... but the UKIP *is* the establishment to a certain degree... look at the sort of people who've endorsed them...

[Jens]

New poll from Denmark

Gallup just released a new poll and it is quite a landslide!! The Anti-EU parties (JB, FB and DF) would lose 4 mandates and only recieve 1!!!!

SD (PES): 5 (+2)
RV (ELDR): 1 (0)
KF (EPP): 1 (0)
SF (EUL/NGL): 1 (0)
DF (UEN): 0 (-1)
FB (EUL/NGL): 0 (-1)
JB (EDD): 1 (-2)
V (ELDR): 5 (0)

I seriously doubt that this is going to be the result. The polls have always showed that the Anti-EU would fare badly and it has yet to happen and I also believe that many of Venstres voters are going to stay home and watch football instead.

And another thing: The Danish national broadcasting corporation (DR) announced the other day that the post-election programme will be postponed 1½ hours because of the European Soccer Campionship. England vs. France. :-D

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I like the Newfies avatar.

[Jens]

Yes... but the UKIP *is* the establishment to a certain degree... look at the sort of people who've endorsed them...

I have to say that the UKIP puzzles me. I can see that they are in the EDD like Junibevægelsen but it doesn't sound like they have the same "globalist" outlook as JB. Who are they??? I have a feeling that they look a lot like our Dansk Folkeparti (Danish Peoples Party (UEN)) aka rightwing madmen (and women) who talks about losing our national charateristics, EU is nothing but a lot of corrupt Italians and Poles that are going to steal our jobs ect

[Jens]

I like the Newfies avatar.

It's a beauty  - but I would prefer Denmark as a avatar ;-) !!!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yes... but the UKIP *is* the establishment to a certain degree... look at the sort of people who've endorsed them...

I have to say that the UKIP puzzles me. I can see that they are in the EDD like Junibevægelsen but it doesn't sound like they have the same "globalist" outlook as JB. Who are they??? I have a feeling that they look a lot like our Dansk Folkeparti (Danish Peoples Party (UEN)) aka rightwing madmen (and women) who talks about losing our national charateristics, EU is nothing but a lot of corrupt Italians and Poles that are going to steal our jobs ect

They are basically the U.K version of the Dansk Folkeparti...

[Gustaf]

Yes... but the UKIP *is* the establishment to a certain degree... look at the sort of people who've endorsed them...

Sean Gabb?

The establishement is not defined as having money or even power or standing in society. Is rather being part of the "right" group. Journalists are for instance more of a part of establishement than most businessmen and even many politicians. In fact, few businessmen are part of the establishement, it's sort of the same as with workers and trade unions. Most business power is in their organizations.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yes... but the UKIP *is* the establishment to a certain degree... look at the sort of people who've endorsed them...

Sean Gabb?

The establishement is not defined as having money or even power or standing in society. Is rather being part of the "right" group. Journalists are for instance more of a part of establishement than most businessmen and even many politicians. In fact, few businessmen are part of the establishement, it's sort of the same as with workers and trade unions. Most business power is in their organizations.

The UKIP have been endorsed by a group of Tory Peers (in the House of Lords).
That is establishment.

[Peter]

UK Predictions

These are my predictions for the upcoming elections; They are broken down by region; I mad my prediction for number of votes in each region first, then calculated the number of seats; From this I have deduced that UKIP will actually be hurt by the reduction in seats from 87 to 78, but will gain in share of the vote.

Top Line Figures:
Conservative - 35.0 - 33
Labour - 24.0 - 22
Liberal Democrats - 16.0 - 10
United Kingdom Indepence Party - 10.0 - 2
Greens - 8.0 - 3
Scottish National Party  - 2
Plaid Cymru - 2

For 1999 figures, click here

[Filuwaúrdjan]

UK Predictions

These are my predictions for the upcoming elections; They are broken down by region; I mad my prediction for number of votes in each region first, then calculated the number of seats; From this I have deduced that UKIP will actually be hurt by the reduction in seats from 87 to 78, but will gain in share of the vote.

Top Line Figures:
Conservative - 35.0 - 33
Labour - 24.0 - 22
Liberal Democrats - 16.0 - 10
United Kingdom Indepence Party - 10.0 - 2
Greens - 8.0 - 3
Scottish National Party  - 2
Plaid Cymru - 2

For 1999 figures, click here

I'd be suprised if Plaid did that well... but with the insanely low turnout that's going to happen who knows...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A semi-decent polling firm (Populus) has published a Euro poll:

Lab 25-26%
Con 24%
LD  16-18%
UKIP 13%
Greens 8-9%
BNP 3-4%

[Ben.]

Do you suppose that the Lib Dems will come fourth behind UKIP ?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Do you suppose that the Lib Dems will come fourth behind UKIP ?

Could happen... which might force Kennedy's resignation. Which would be bad for the LibDems as he's much more popular than his party.