EU elections predictions!

[afleitch]

Scratch that! The BBC has said that the constituency of Bassetlaw has UKIP on 27%. Looks like the Tories are getting squeezed in the Midlands too.

[Peter]

Worryingly the BNP have polled 126,538 in Yorkshire, thats 8% of the vote.

Oh no

[Gustaf]

Swedish results are done.

Turnout: 37%, slightyly lower than last time.

SAP: 24.7% 5 seats (-1)

M:     18.2% 4 seats (-1)

JL:     14.4% 3 seats (+3)

V:      12.8% 2 seats (-1)

FP:      9.8% 2 seats (-1)

C:        6.3% 1 seat  (0)

MP:      5.9% 1 seat  (-1)

KD:      5.7% 1 seat  (-2)

WOHO! After campaigning for JL it was nice to see them do this well. In a major shocker they went from 4.7-5.2% in the polls released on friday and saturday to 14.4% and the position as 3rd biggest party in the country. After existing for 4 months and having a total campaign budget of about 1 million SEK (roughly 130 000 dollars). This is a major event in Swedish politics. All other parties, except the Centre party, lost votes. SAP's worse result in an election since 1912.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Most ruling parties suffered "worst results since 19**"... sort of. These are European not General elections though.
---
UKIP came second in far, far too many places... and third overall (nearly coming first in the East Midlands. The Kilroy factor I presume).

[Umengus]

Belgium

National level

CD&V (conservative but center for economy NL): 17,4% (+4)
Vlaams Block (extreme right NL): 14,3% (+4)
VLD (liberal NL)): 13,6% (= but it's a very bad)
PS (socialist FR): 13,5% (+4)
SP (socialist NL): 11% (+0,1 but it's bad too)
MR (liberal FR): 10,4% (+0,4)
cdh (center NL): 5,7% (+0,7)
Groen (Green NL) 4,9% (bad)
Ecolo (Green FR): 3,7% (-5 very very very bad)

Sieges
CD&V: 4 (+1)
Vlaams Blok: 3 (+1)
VLD: 3
PS: 4 (+1)
SP: 3
MR: 3
cdH: 2
Groen: 1 (-1)
Ecolo: 1 (-2)


Regional elections: 3 area: FR, NL and Brussel

In FR, great victory of socialists (and great failure for greens). In Brussel, socialist is first party in front of MR. ANd in NL it's catastrophic: extreme right is second party (with +8!), after CD&V. VLD, party of PM, has a very bad result, as socialist.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

UK Predictions

These are my predictions for the upcoming elections; They are broken down by region; I mad my prediction for number of votes in each region first, then calculated the number of seats; From this I have deduced that UKIP will actually be hurt by the reduction in seats from 87 to 78, but will gain in share of the vote.

Top Line Figures:
Conservative - 35.0 - 33
Labour - 24.0 - 22
Liberal Democrats - 16.0 - 10
United Kingdom Indepence Party - 10.0 - 2
Greens - 8.0 - 3
Scottish National Party  - 2
Plaid Cymru - 2

For 1999 figures, click here

Your overall predictions in terms of votes, for Labour, LD and Greenies were spot on (within a margin of error of about 2%, which is only fair) but the Tory and UKIP figures were waaaay out (I can't critise you on seats... the way they determined it was weird and the stronger-than-you-predicted UKIP vote cost both Con and Lab seats).
Your regional breakdowns weren't as good... but kudos to you for trying... I'm very, very happy that the Wales prediction was wrong
But horrified by the East Midlands result (looks like Kilroy tapped into some that "Reagan Democrat" mentality in the area).

[Peter]

I never expected UKIP to take so many votes off the Tories, I knew that they would take a few, but never enough to win seats, and once you pass 12/13% under this system, then you start picking up loads of seats.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I never expected UKIP to take so many votes off the Tories, I knew that they would take a few, but never enough to win seats, and once you pass 12/13% under this system, then you start picking up loads of seats.

I think the German system would work a LOT better for the Euro elections than the system used for the last ones...

[minionofmidas]

The German result is really cool...not exactly "excellent news", but so pretty to look at. The Greens came second in Berlin, Frankfurt, Darmstadt and probably quite a number of cities more (Cologne?), and first in Freiburg. They broke 50% in seven different Frankfurt precincts - they'd never previously done it anywhere. SPD and CDU lost 9% each in Frankfurt - the SPD is down to 19% but remains the strongest party in the Riederwald ward. A local FDP politician quipped about a Green-FDP coalition after the next local elections.

[Jens]

Here is the Danish result:

SD (PES): 32,7 % (+16.2) = 5 (+2)
RV (ELDR): 6.4 % (-2,7) = 1 (0)
KF (EPP): 11.3 % (+2,8) = 1 (0)
SF (EUL/NGL): 8.0 % (+0.9) = 1 (0)
JB (EDD): 9,1 % (-7,0) = 1 (-2)
KD (EPP): 1,3 % (-0,7) = 0 (0)
FB (EUL/NGL): 5,2 % (-2,1) = 1 (0)
DF: (EUN): 6,8 % (+1.0) = 1 (0)
V (ELDR): 19,4 % (-4,0) = 3 (-2)

See the result in details at http://www.kmdvalg.dk/
47.9 % voted, and that is 3 % less that 1999 (worst turnout since mit-eighties)
The Socialdemocrats scored a huge victory with former PM Poul Nyrup getting more that 400.000 personal votes. Venstre had a very bad election and the results has put PM Anders Fogh under pressure. The Anti-EU movements Folkebevægelsen and Junibevægelsen also had a bad election, the worst ever. FB only got a mandate because of a electoral alliance with JB. (and on a personal note. The place where I was polling official had a turnout of 63,5 % (-2). The votes where like this: SD 25 % RV 17,4 % KF 10,1 % SF 15,5 % JB 8,1 % KD 0.7 % FB 7,5 % DF 3,1 V 12,5 %. It is not the poorest area in Denmark

[Jens]

And here is the overall results in the European Union
   EPP-ED   PES   ELDR   EUL/NGL   Greens   UEN   EDD   Others
Belgium   7   7   5   0   2   0   0   3
Cypress   2   0   1   2   0   0   0   1
Denmark   1   5   4   2   0   1   1   0
Estonia   1   3   2   0   0   0   0   0
Fnland   4   3   5   1   1   0   0   0
France   28   31   0   3   6   0   0   10
Greece   11   8   0   4   0   0   0   1
Netherlands   7   7   5   2   2   0   2   2
Eire   4   2   0   0   1   4   0   2
Italy   28   16   8   7   2   9   0   8
Latvia   3   0   1   0   1   4   0   0
Lithuania   3   2   3   0   0   0   0   5
Luxembourg   3   1   1   0   1   0   0   0
Malta   2   3   0   0   0   0   0   0
Poland   18   8   4   0   0   7   0   17
Portugal   7   12   0   2   0   2   0   1
Slovakia   8   3   0   0   0   0   0   3
Slovenia   4   1   2   0   0   0   0   0
Spain   23   24   1   1   5   0   0   0
GB   28   19   12   0   5   0   12   2
Sweden   5   5   3   2   1   0   0   3
Czech Rep.   11   2   0   6   0   0   0   5
Germany   49   23   7   7   13   0   0   0
Hungary   13   9   2   0   0   0   0   0
Austria   6   7   0   0   2   0   0   3
Total   
EPP-ED: 276 (+43)
PES: 201 (+21)
ELDR: 66 (+16)
EUL/NGL: 39 (-3)
Greens: 42 (-6)
UEN: 27 (-3)
EDD: 15 (-1)
Others: 66 (+39)
Source: Politiken

Highest voter turnout: Malta 82,4 % (Belgium 90,8 % but with compulsory vote)
Lovest voter turnout: Slovakia 16,7% ( in the village of Cervenany nobody voted!!)

[freek]

EPP-ED: 276 (+43)
PES: 201 (+21)
ELDR: 66 (+16)
EUL/NGL: 39 (-3)
Greens: 42 (-6)
UEN: 27 (-3)
EDD: 15 (-1)
Others: 66 (+39)

But it is quite possible that parties switch fraction, and a lot of new parties haven't decided in which fraction they will sit.

[YoMartin]

Here is the Danish result:

SD (PES): 32,7 % (+16.2) = 5 (+2)
RV (ELDR): 6.4 % (-2,7) = 1 (0)
KF (EPP): 11.3 % (+2,8) = 1 (0)
SF (EUL/NGL): 8.0 % (+0.9) = 1 (0)
JB (EDD): 9,1 % (-7,0) = 1 (-2)
KD (EPP): 1,3 % (-0,7) = 0 (0)
FB (EUL/NGL): 5,2 % (-2,1) = 1 (0)
DF: (EUN): 6,8 % (+1.0) = 1 (0)
V (ELDR): 19,4 % (-4,0) = 3 (-2)

See the result in details at http://www.kmdvalg.dk/
47.9 % voted, and that is 3 % less that 1999 (worst turnout since mit-eighties)
The Socialdemocrats scored a huge victory with former PM Poul Nyrup getting more that 400.000 personal votes. Venstre had a very bad election and the results has put PM Anders Fogh under pressure. The Anti-EU movements Folkebevægelsen and Junibevægelsen also had a bad election, the worst ever. FB only got a mandate because of a electoral alliance with JB. (and on a personal note. The place where I was polling official had a turnout of 63,5 % (-2). The votes where like this: SD 25 % RV 17,4 % KF 10,1 % SF 15,5 % JB 8,1 % KD 0.7 % FB 7,5 % DF 3,1 V 12,5 %. It is not the poorest area in Denmark

It´s interesting that left parties (SF, FB, RV) got better results in a rich area.

[Jens]

Here is the Danish result:

SD (PES): 32,7 % (+16.2) = 5 (+2)
RV (ELDR): 6.4 % (-2,7) = 1 (0)
KF (EPP): 11.3 % (+2,8) = 1 (0)
SF (EUL/NGL): 8.0 % (+0.9) = 1 (0)
JB (EDD): 9,1 % (-7,0) = 1 (-2)
KD (EPP): 1,3 % (-0,7) = 0 (0)
FB (EUL/NGL): 5,2 % (-2,1) = 1 (0)
DF: (EUN): 6,8 % (+1.0) = 1 (0)
V (ELDR): 19,4 % (-4,0) = 3 (-2)

See the result in details at http://www.kmdvalg.dk/
47.9 % voted, and that is 3 % less that 1999 (worst turnout since mit-eighties)
The Socialdemocrats scored a huge victory with former PM Poul Nyrup getting more that 400.000 personal votes. Venstre had a very bad election and the results has put PM Anders Fogh under pressure. The Anti-EU movements Folkebevægelsen and Junibevægelsen also had a bad election, the worst ever. FB only got a mandate because of a electoral alliance with JB. (and on a personal note. The place where I was polling official had a turnout of 63,5 % (-2). The votes where like this: SD 25 % RV 17,4 % KF 10,1 % SF 15,5 % JB 8,1 % KD 0.7 % FB 7,5 % DF 3,1 V 12,5 %. It is not the poorest area in Denmark

It´s interesting that left parties (SF, FB, RV) got better results in a rich area.

That is quite common in Denmark, but we've got different kinds of wealthy areas. Most of Copenhagen centre is quite leftwing or centre (RV is a social-liberal party) but the northen suburb of Cph is wery rich and conservative. Traditionally the left parties has been strong in the urban areas (quite the opposit of Sweden and Norway) and the countryside has been dominated by the farmers party (Venstre). But remember the difference between rich and poor is not that large in Denmark (the wellfare state and differantiated taxation )

[YoMartin]

Here is the Danish result:

SD (PES): 32,7 % (+16.2) = 5 (+2)
RV (ELDR): 6.4 % (-2,7) = 1 (0)
KF (EPP): 11.3 % (+2,8) = 1 (0)
SF (EUL/NGL): 8.0 % (+0.9) = 1 (0)
JB (EDD): 9,1 % (-7,0) = 1 (-2)
KD (EPP): 1,3 % (-0,7) = 0 (0)
FB (EUL/NGL): 5,2 % (-2,1) = 1 (0)
DF: (EUN): 6,8 % (+1.0) = 1 (0)
V (ELDR): 19,4 % (-4,0) = 3 (-2)

See the result in details at http://www.kmdvalg.dk/
47.9 % voted, and that is 3 % less that 1999 (worst turnout since mit-eighties)
The Socialdemocrats scored a huge victory with former PM Poul Nyrup getting more that 400.000 personal votes. Venstre had a very bad election and the results has put PM Anders Fogh under pressure. The Anti-EU movements Folkebevægelsen and Junibevægelsen also had a bad election, the worst ever. FB only got a mandate because of a electoral alliance with JB. (and on a personal note. The place where I was polling official had a turnout of 63,5 % (-2). The votes where like this: SD 25 % RV 17,4 % KF 10,1 % SF 15,5 % JB 8,1 % KD 0.7 % FB 7,5 % DF 3,1 V 12,5 %. It is not the poorest area in Denmark

It´s interesting that left parties (SF, FB, RV) got better results in a rich area.

That is quite common in Denmark, but we've got different kinds of wealthy areas. Most of Copenhagen centre is quite leftwing or centre (RV is a social-liberal party) but the northen suburb of Cph is wery rich and conservative. Traditionally the left parties has been strong in the urban areas (quite the opposit of Sweden and Norway) and the countryside has been dominated by the farmers party (Venstre). But remember the difference between rich and poor is not that large in Denmark (the wellfare state and differantiated taxation )

Yes, I think RV getting good results in rich areas is expectable. I don´t much about their ideas, but generally left-liberal parties speak of issues that concern to people who have other problems already solved. What I didn´t expect was that 2 parties belonging to United Left were also strong there. I guess it´s just that they are stronger in urban areas in general.

[Jens]

Here is the Danish result:

SD (PES): 32,7 % (+16.2) = 5 (+2)
RV (ELDR): 6.4 % (-2,7) = 1 (0)
KF (EPP): 11.3 % (+2,8) = 1 (0)
SF (EUL/NGL): 8.0 % (+0.9) = 1 (0)
JB (EDD): 9,1 % (-7,0) = 1 (-2)
KD (EPP): 1,3 % (-0,7) = 0 (0)
FB (EUL/NGL): 5,2 % (-2,1) = 1 (0)
DF: (EUN): 6,8 % (+1.0) = 1 (0)
V (ELDR): 19,4 % (-4,0) = 3 (-2)

See the result in details at http://www.kmdvalg.dk/
47.9 % voted, and that is 3 % less that 1999 (worst turnout since mit-eighties)
The Socialdemocrats scored a huge victory with former PM Poul Nyrup getting more that 400.000 personal votes. Venstre had a very bad election and the results has put PM Anders Fogh under pressure. The Anti-EU movements Folkebevægelsen and Junibevægelsen also had a bad election, the worst ever. FB only got a mandate because of a electoral alliance with JB. (and on a personal note. The place where I was polling official had a turnout of 63,5 % (-2). The votes where like this: SD 25 % RV 17,4 % KF 10,1 % SF 15,5 % JB 8,1 % KD 0.7 % FB 7,5 % DF 3,1 V 12,5 %. It is not the poorest area in Denmark

It´s interesting that left parties (SF, FB, RV) got better results in a rich area.

That is quite common in Denmark, but we've got different kinds of wealthy areas. Most of Copenhagen centre is quite leftwing or centre (RV is a social-liberal party) but the northen suburb of Cph is wery rich and conservative. Traditionally the left parties has been strong in the urban areas (quite the opposit of Sweden and Norway) and the countryside has been dominated by the farmers party (Venstre). But remember the difference between rich and poor is not that large in Denmark (the wellfare state and differantiated taxation )

Yes, I think RV getting good results in rich areas is expectable. I don´t much about their ideas, but generally left-liberal parties speak of issues that concern to people who have other problems already solved. What I didn´t expect was that 2 parties belonging to United Left were also strong there. I guess it´s just that they are stronger in urban areas in general.

Firstly it is important to remember that this was a EU-election and the two movements JB and FB (The June Movement & Peoples Movement against EU) attracts a lot of non-left votes. Enhedslisten (Unity List) is running as a part of FB, but only got 2,4 % at the last diet election compared to FB's 5,2%.
Secondly, UL and its predesser VS (Left Socialist) gets almost all of their votes from the major cities. At one point VS got nearly no! votes outside the inner parts of Copenhagen and Aarhus (The second largest city). And another funny thing. The support for the left (UL & SF) is much stronger in the eastern parts of Denmark whereas the further to the west you go the more votes to the Christian Democrats and Danish Peoples Party.

[Jens]

Jens

is the rural support of RV extinct nowadays?

More or less. In the areas around Skive and Salling in Jutland and Holbæk on Zealand they still has some support but there is almost no small-holders left in Denmark and the rural areas are in terms of votes insignificant. (less that 5 % of the Danish population is farmers today).
I have been thinking about creating a topic under International Politics, where we foreingers could decribe the political systems in our home country (but after next week - I have a deadline on the 24.!). I looks like many Americans is having a hard time understading a multiparty system like Denmark and Finland.

[Huckleberry Finn]

So did Viivi Avellan get elected?

Heh.

No. She got about 8000 votes and reached eighth place in the National Coalition Party's list.
 
However, Conservatives did excellent result in the election. They (or we) were biggest party with over 23 percent of votes and 4 seats.  

GUSTAF!

Isn't Nils Ludgren your relative? I have some evidence....

[Gustaf]

So did Viivi Avellan get elected?

Heh.

No. She got about 8000 votes and reached eighth place in the National Coalition Party's list.
 
However, Conservatives did excellent result in the election. They (or we) were biggest party with over 23 percent of votes and 4 seats.  

GUSTAF!

Isn't Nils Ludgren your relative? I have some evidence....

Have you watched YLE, by any chance?

[Huckleberry Finn]

So did Viivi Avellan get elected?

Heh.

No. She got about 8000 votes and reached eighth place in the National Coalition Party's list.
 
However, Conservatives did excellent result in the election. They (or we) were biggest party with over 23 percent of votes and 4 seats.  

GUSTAF!

Isn't Nils Ludgren your relative? I have some evidence....

Have you watched YLE, by any chance?

Hey why not?

There is remarkable similarities between your father and Nils Ludgren. You have told that your father is conservative social democrat and very anti EU as is Nils Ludgren. I have understood that you father is economist as is Nils Ludgren. And your grandfather served voluntarily in the Winter War (thanks for it BTW) which makes your father pretty old. (Nils Ludgren is 68)

So what you say?

 

[Huckleberry Finn]

So did Viivi Avellan get elected?

Heh.

No. She got about 8000 votes and reached eighth place in the National Coalition Party's list.
 
However, Conservatives did excellent result in the election. They (or we) were biggest party with over 23 percent of votes and 4 seats.  

GUSTAF!

Isn't Nils Ludgren your relative? I have some evidence....

Have you watched YLE, by any chance?

Hey why not?

There is remarkable similarities between your father and Nils Ludgren. You have told that your father is conservative social democrat and very anti EU as is Nils Ludgren. I have understood that you father is economist as is Nils Ludgren. And your grandfather served voluntarily in the Winter War (thanks for it BTW) which makes your father pretty old. (Nils Ludgren is 68)

So what you say?

 

So....Gustaf?

And congratulations for 10000 posts!

[Gustaf]

So did Viivi Avellan get elected?

Heh.

No. She got about 8000 votes and reached eighth place in the National Coalition Party's list.
 
However, Conservatives did excellent result in the election. They (or we) were biggest party with over 23 percent of votes and 4 seats.  

GUSTAF!

Isn't Nils Ludgren your relative? I have some evidence....

Have you watched YLE, by any chance?

Hey why not?

There is remarkable similarities between your father and Nils Ludgren. You have told that your father is conservative social democrat and very anti EU as is Nils Ludgren. I have understood that you father is economist as is Nils Ludgren. And your grandfather served voluntarily in the Winter War (thanks for it BTW) which makes your father pretty old. (Nils Ludgren is 68)

So what you say?

 

So....Gustaf?

And congratulations for 10000 posts!

You seem to be quite a bit of a Sherlock...my grand-father who participated in the winter war was on my mother's side though...

It doesn't seem like denying it is gonna do much good, so there goes the idea of internet anynomity... And there's an N in LuNdgren...

[Huckleberry Finn]

So you admit that Nils Lundgren is your father!

[Huckleberry Finn]

So you admit that Nils Lundgren is your father!

Do you confirm?

[Gustaf]

So you admit that Nils Lundgren is your father!

Do you confirm?

Yes. But don't tell anyone...