EU elections predictions!

[Umengus]

13 juny, it's election for the european parliament in the 25 countries of Europe (its a very big election!)

wich party will win and in which country? please, give me your predictions!

-France: left before right before extreme right before extreme left
-Belgium: socialist before right and center before extreme right before green
-UK: Conservative before labour before libs
-Spain: PSOE before PP before the rest
-Germany: right before left
-Italy: Left before right
-Sweden: left before right
-Denmark: left before right
-Holland: left before right
-Austria: left before right
-luxembourg: I don't know
-Ireland: right before left
-Portugal: left before right but I don'k know very well the situation in this country.
-Finland: left before right
-Greece: left before right (or equality)

For the new members of the EU, I don't know

[Filuwaúrdjan]

13 juny, it's election for the european parliament in the 25 countries of Europe (its a very big election!)

Try telling that to people here...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

O.K

-France: Moderate Left
-Belgium: Socialists
-UK: No one will bother to vote
-Spain: Either PSOE or PP
-Germany: CDU-CSU
-Italy: Per Ulivo
-Sweden: SAP
-Denmark: dunno
-Holland: PvDA
-Austria: SPO
-Luxembourg: Pass
-Ireland: Fianna Fial
-Portugal: Not a clue
-Finland: SDP
-Greece: Dunno

[Michael Z]

As far as the UK is concerned, I envisage Lib Dem- and Tory gains, and big losses for Labour.

Unfortunately I can also see extremist parties capitalising on what's bound to be a pathetically low turn-out.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

As far as the UK is concerned, I envisage Lib Dem- and Tory gains, and big losses for Labour.

Unfortunately I can also see extremist parties capitalising on what's bound to be a pathetically low turn-out.

Labour won't suffer big losses as due to the pathetically low turnout in 1999, they don't have a lot of vunerable MEP's...

Tragically I *can* see the BNP or those Galloway nuts winning a seat...

STUPID PROPORTIONAL MISREPRESENTATION*

*Vote Bell

[© tweed]

Down with Musco....whoops...I mean Berlusconi.

That's all I know

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Finnish politics *is* a little weird sometimes... I remember reading that at some point in the '50's a government fell over butter prices.

Predicting the U.K results is futile... turnout will be insanely low turnout* (only 17% of us are definately going to vote in the Euro elections...)

*I blame PR

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So, the number of UK seats should be reduced accordingly.

Probably... won't happen though...

[JohnFKennedy]

proportional representation or public relations? lol, which do you mean Al, which DO you mean?

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Wow...is there a website with all these polls, or are you all pulling these predictions together from each country's national news?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

proportional representation or public relations? lol, which do you mean Al, which DO you mean?

Proportional Representation

[English]

There is a simple reason why UK turnout is so low at euro elections. The UK is not part of Europe.

[JohnFKennedy]

There is a simple reason why UK turnout is so low at euro elections. The UK is not part of Europe.

Nah, just noone here really cares.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There is a simple reason why UK turnout is so low at euro elections. The UK is not part of Europe.

We're half in half out...

[freek]

NETHERLANDS   28

PPE CDA              7
PSE PVDA            8
ELDR  VVD + D66 7
GUE  SP                2
GR   GROENLINKS 2
OTHERS CU+SGP  2

Although I agree in general with the scores you give here, I think I have some remarks about your predictions for the Netherlands.

1. The total number of seats is 27 the next period.

2. I think you overestimate the VVD+D66 score, while you underestimate the CDA-score and CU-SGP-score. 5 years ago the CDA was hugely unpopular, but became the largest party, just for one reason, the turnout was extremely low,  even under 30%. The CDA, CU, and SGP-voters are extremely faithful in voting, the turnout under CU and SGP-voters was 70% 5 years ago. The VVD was back then a lot higher in the polls than the CDA, but scored only 6 seats, the CDA 9. Another difference with then is a large PvdA-party, but I think they mostly attract votes from the Greens, just as the Socialist Party.

3. I miss two other parties in your list, the List Pim Fortuyn, which takes a seat maybe, and the Partij voor de Dieren (Animals' Party, really they exist), which might also score a seat. They became quite close to win a seat the last parliamentary elections last year, and they might win a seat now, because the importance of European elections is lower, and people might vote for smaller parties.

My prediction is

CDA            8
PvdA           7
VVD+D66    4+1
GroenLinks  2
SP               2
CU/SGP       2
LPF             1

Maybe CDA 7, VVD 5, maybe also the PvdD 1 seat. Prediction is quite hard with this low number of seats, it is a lot easier when there are 150. .

[freek]

I strongly agree about the calvinist parties. If I observed correctly their share of vote decreased but amount of votes increased beacause of higher turnout.

Yeah. And at the last parliamentary elections they lost 2 seats to the CDA, because their voters preferred a larger CDA (and the initiative in coalition talks) above their own party. The same was seen for PvdA en SP. Now, voters will return to their own party, because the size of PvdA and CDA in the European Parliament is not relevant for the formation of a European Commission.

I think D66 would be very lucky when winning more than one seat. They don't have many faithful voters, and in the polls for the national parliament they score 6-7 seats for about 3 years now. In 1999 that was 10-14, I think.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

For Netherlands - Go VVD!

Did Pim Fortun's (brief glimmer of a) party ever join one of the EU coalitions?

I appreciate the discussion on this issue as otherwise I wouldn't have a whole lot of sources of insight on it.

[Huckleberry Finn]

Probable winners in some countries.

Spain: Socialists again, unfortunately. (Damn withdrawers)
Britain: Tory and Lib Dems.
Germany: CDU
France: Who cares

Finland: Last election 16 seats in parliament, now only 14, because of new EU-members.

My prediction

Social Democrats 4 +1
Centre 4
Conservatives 3 -1
Greens 2
Left-Wing Alliance 1  

Both Swedish People's Party and Christian Democrats will lose their only seat.

With previous amount of seats Centre could win one seat, because their top candidate is resigned prime minister Anneli Jääteenmäki. (Resigned after so called Iraq-document scandal. She used secret discussion of former sos. dem. prime minister Paavo Lipponen and George W. Bush as election weapon. Centre-people got mad about her resignation)

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/3001812.stm

Centre has also couple of stupid celebrity candidates. Ethelberth, have you heard that Kari Salmelainen and Riitta Väisänen are their candidates? Unbelievable!

National Coalition Party (Conservatives) will probably and unfortunately lose one seat, because of lack of leadership. Chairman Ville Itälä has resigned and I can't see any good successor candidate. However I support Marjo Matikainen-Kallström. She is right-winger and unfortunately could never win election. But it was about time that somebody said something else than "Scandinavian welfare state is our only possibility". AAARRG!

 

[YoMartin]

For Netherlands - Go VVD!

Did Pim Fortun's (brief glimmer of a) party ever join one of the EU coalitions?

I appreciate the discussion on this issue as otherwise I wouldn't have a whole lot of sources of insight on it.

Go D66! Too bad they´re polling so poorly. If social-liberals don´t have place in a country like Netherlands, I guess we´re screwed...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I wouldn't vote for them, but I kind of like D66... the party with the most insanely volatile electoral support!

[freek]

Go D66! Too bad they´re polling so poorly. If social-liberals don´t have place in a country like Netherlands, I guess we´re screwed...

Social-liberals do have a place, both in the PvdA and the VVD. D66 is crushed in between them, because there is some overlap between PvdA and VVD in their programs. If there is more polarisation, D66 will be seen as the "reasonable alternative" for social liberals, and they will rise again.

[freek]

Did Pim Fortun's (brief glimmer of a) party ever join one of the EU coalitions?

I emailed them to ask, I hope they will answer my question.

[Umengus]

The first polls for European elections have been presented for France!

www.bva.fr

PPE UDF UMP 28
PSE PS           24
GUE LO LC       5
GR                    7
XR                    9
OTHERS           5

this is as if the country elected as whole.
I cannot see the effect of regions at this point.

Observe that commies proper are beyond the threshold

It's a stranger poll...

look at:

-First poll

BVA     (1 april I think) april

extreme left: 5%

communist: 4%
socialist party: 28%
Green: 8%

CPNT: 2%

UDF: 12%
UMP:23%
De villiers, right: 6%

"extreme right": 12%



-Second poll

Ipsos 2 and 3 april

extreme left: 3%

communist: 4%
green: 8%
PS: 32%

CPNT: 2%

UDF: 12%
UMP: 22%
devilliers: 4%

"extreme right": 12%

[Gustaf]

OK, I am actually interested in these elections.

In Sweden the new Junelist is running in the EP elections only, capitalizing on discontent with the pro-EU establishement after the Euro-referendum. They might well get a seat. The EU electinos aren't a left-right contest really, I think it's more of centralization v nationalism, etc. But the left will most likely win here I guess.

Seats:

KD (Christian Democrats):

Popular leader Alf Svensson has resigned, and their EU-critical voters might desert the party for the Center Party and the Junelist. They have 'no direction home' and will lose at least 1 seat, maybe 2.

Prediction: 0 seats

C (Center Party, agrarian):

Are deeply split on EU issues, but are improving their electoral fortunes after 2 decades of constant decline. Also have a EU-critic as their number one name. As KD they risk losing the EU-critical voters to a seriously critical party like the Junelist and the EU-fanatics to a seriously pro-EU party, like the liberals or the conservatives. Might still cling on to their only seat.

Prediction: 1 seat

M (Moderate Party, the dominating right winged party in Sweden, libertarian):

Are bouncing back after their disastrous defeat in 2002, but with a boring has-been as their number one name and an attempt to suddenly change from blind EU-groupies to senseible critics will confuse people and enrage the pro-group while doing little to appease the critics. Will still do about as good as they usually do, I think.

Prediction: 4 seats  

FP (People's Party, social liberals):

Are in decline after their stunning success in the last election. One of the few parties to seriously care for the EU. Will probably profile themselves as true believers and capitalize on the right-leaning EU-worshippers. With no strong names in the campaign that won't be enough to give them much more than they have in polls right now.

Prediction: 2 seats

SAP (Social Democrats, Labour Party):

Are in trouble, with an unpopular leader a not-so-good economy and cautios attempts to dismantle the welfare state. Profoundly split on EU-issues and the decision to smash the critical wing of the party will bounce back and hurt them badly in the EP elections. Also lots of nobidies on the list and no real interest in the election.

Prediction: 5 seats

V (Socialist Left Party, former Communists):

Seem to be going neither up or down in polls despite the controversial new leader. Can always count on good turnout among their voters, who care about the EU, have a good charismatic first name and can count on angry social democrats in these elections. Wil have a hard time getting as many votes as last time around though.

Prediction: 3 seats

MP (Greens):

Very unpredictable. Charismatic new leadership on the national level, but are dropping their famed MEP-profile. Never goes up or down nationally, but can count on a large chunk of the EU-sceptical vote and also benefit from higher turnout of their base. The only party to get more votes (in abslute numbers) in European elections than in general electinos. Will be hurt by more competition for the anti-EU vote this year.

Prediction: 2 seats.

JL (Junelist, multipartisan EU-critical party):

Was founded this year to run for these elections. Will get a number of EU-critical voters, but are very hard to predict. Will probably get in though, due ti the widening anti-EU sentiment.

Prediction: 2 seats.

Left (SAP+V+MP): 10 seats

Right (M+FP+KD+C): 7 seats

Independent (JL): 2 seats

Anti-EU (JL+MP+V): 7 seats

Pro-EU (M+FP+SAP): 11 seats

Don't know what they think (C): 1 seat

[freek]

Poll by Interview/NSS

36% of the Dutch know that there are elections this year, and one third of them (12% in total!) knowing that these elections are for the European Parliament.

Hardly anyone knows when these elections are, 10% said "somewhere in June", 5% said "10th of June", the correct answer.

66% said they plan to vote, but 5 years ago only 29% of the electorate voted.

The parties (skewed because a lot of people who say they intend to vote, won't vote)

PvdA (Labour Party) 33%
CDA (Christian Democrates) 22%
VVD (Right-liberal) 21%
GroenLinks (Greens) 6%
SP (Socialists) 5%
D66 (Left-liberal) 4%
CU (Calvinist) 3%
LPF 2%
SGP (Christian fundamentalist) 2%

[Umengus]

Thanks freek!

I'm sad to see the party of Pim fortuyn very bad... He was a good thing for the democracy... But I'm happy to see CDA very bad and upset to see liberal very hight. A win for left it's a good thing.