EU elections predictions!

[minionofmidas]

Geesus, UKIP 14%??? More salt please!!!

[minionofmidas]

Most recent Swedish poll, by a reliable company:
SAP: 35.9%
M: 24.7%
FP: 11.5%
V: 11.1%
MP: 5.9%
C: 4.4%
JL: 3.4%
KD: 2.6%
My prediction of ZERO seats for the KD is holding true. JL will get a boost now, which should be enough to give them the 4% required for a seat. SAP is WAAAAAAAAY overestimated. The respondency rate was about 51% in this poll and turnout's gonna be a lot lower than that.

SAP = Social Democrats, M = Mainstram Conservatives, V = Commies, MP = Greens.
C = Centre? KD = Christian Democrats? FP = Rightwing populists? Or ist that elsewhere in Scandinavia? And who's JL?

[minionofmidas]

I'm sorry, what is a UKIP? It looks like it could be the acronym for United Kingdom Independent Party. Does this mean they are commited to centrism?

UK Independence Party, because right now it's presumably a European dependency.
They are committed to towing the UK into Chesapeake Bay.

[minionofmidas]

I'm sorry, I don't follow. "It is presumably a European dependency" leads me to think it is very pro-EU. "towing the UK into Chesapeake Bay" leads me to think it is very Atlanticist. Both of these things are belied by its name. In short, you will have to explain in more detail. And why have I never heard of this party before?

UKIP, the UK Independence Party, are the most eurosceptic party representing the UK in the European Parliament. So they are against any influence of the European Union on British politics. Their final goal is to leave the European Union. And you might have never heard of them before, because they don't have any seats in the House of Commons, because of the used FPTP-system.

The line "It is presumably a European dependency" is the UKIP's way to describe the current situation of the member states in the European Union, and the UKIP wants to change that.

"presumably" was the wrong word...
Is "supposedly" better? Or "according to them"?

[minionofmidas]

The European Commission and the Dutch government have a conflict about the time when the official result of the elections are announced, since our elections are already June 10th. The Dutch government planned to announce the official results June 15th, as the EU requested; but single municipalities are allowed to announce their results already on the evening of June 10th. So it is possible to calculate the result by yourselve. . And the Commission doesn't like that.

I can see that...in "normal" conditions you'd expect this to have an influence on the elections elsewhere, though Euro Election patterns being what they are, it won't actually matter.

[minionofmidas]

Whatever happened to D66!? They've had a really bad decade...being in government seems not helpful for that kinda party...
I predict that turnout in Germany will be even lower than last time - say 35% to 40% - and that the result will be almost a mirror image of the last one, except with stronger Greens and weaker PDS. Possibly slightly weaker CDU too.

[minionofmidas]

The German result is really cool...not exactly "excellent news", but so pretty to look at. The Greens came second in Berlin, Frankfurt, Darmstadt and probably quite a number of cities more (Cologne?), and first in Freiburg. They broke 50% in seven different Frankfurt precincts - they'd never previously done it anywhere. SPD and CDU lost 9% each in Frankfurt - the SPD is down to 19% but remains the strongest party in the Riederwald ward. A local FDP politician quipped about a Green-FDP coalition after the next local elections.