EU elections predictions!

[Gustaf]

OK, I am actually interested in these elections.

In Sweden the new Junelist is running in the EP elections only, capitalizing on discontent with the pro-EU establishement after the Euro-referendum. They might well get a seat. The EU electinos aren't a left-right contest really, I think it's more of centralization v nationalism, etc. But the left will most likely win here I guess.

Seats:

KD (Christian Democrats):

Popular leader Alf Svensson has resigned, and their EU-critical voters might desert the party for the Center Party and the Junelist. They have 'no direction home' and will lose at least 1 seat, maybe 2.

Prediction: 0 seats

C (Center Party, agrarian):

Are deeply split on EU issues, but are improving their electoral fortunes after 2 decades of constant decline. Also have a EU-critic as their number one name. As KD they risk losing the EU-critical voters to a seriously critical party like the Junelist and the EU-fanatics to a seriously pro-EU party, like the liberals or the conservatives. Might still cling on to their only seat.

Prediction: 1 seat

M (Moderate Party, the dominating right winged party in Sweden, libertarian):

Are bouncing back after their disastrous defeat in 2002, but with a boring has-been as their number one name and an attempt to suddenly change from blind EU-groupies to senseible critics will confuse people and enrage the pro-group while doing little to appease the critics. Will still do about as good as they usually do, I think.

Prediction: 4 seats  

FP (People's Party, social liberals):

Are in decline after their stunning success in the last election. One of the few parties to seriously care for the EU. Will probably profile themselves as true believers and capitalize on the right-leaning EU-worshippers. With no strong names in the campaign that won't be enough to give them much more than they have in polls right now.

Prediction: 2 seats

SAP (Social Democrats, Labour Party):

Are in trouble, with an unpopular leader a not-so-good economy and cautios attempts to dismantle the welfare state. Profoundly split on EU-issues and the decision to smash the critical wing of the party will bounce back and hurt them badly in the EP elections. Also lots of nobidies on the list and no real interest in the election.

Prediction: 5 seats

V (Socialist Left Party, former Communists):

Seem to be going neither up or down in polls despite the controversial new leader. Can always count on good turnout among their voters, who care about the EU, have a good charismatic first name and can count on angry social democrats in these elections. Wil have a hard time getting as many votes as last time around though.

Prediction: 3 seats

MP (Greens):

Very unpredictable. Charismatic new leadership on the national level, but are dropping their famed MEP-profile. Never goes up or down nationally, but can count on a large chunk of the EU-sceptical vote and also benefit from higher turnout of their base. The only party to get more votes (in abslute numbers) in European elections than in general electinos. Will be hurt by more competition for the anti-EU vote this year.

Prediction: 2 seats.

JL (Junelist, multipartisan EU-critical party):

Was founded this year to run for these elections. Will get a number of EU-critical voters, but are very hard to predict. Will probably get in though, due ti the widening anti-EU sentiment.

Prediction: 2 seats.

Left (SAP+V+MP): 10 seats

Right (M+FP+KD+C): 7 seats

Independent (JL): 2 seats

Anti-EU (JL+MP+V): 7 seats

Pro-EU (M+FP+SAP): 11 seats

Don't know what they think (C): 1 seat

[Gustaf]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Good idea! This would clearly be an improvement. If today you asked someone to name at least one MEP, the chance of getting no answer would be quite high in Germany. I think, in the rest of Europe it's not very different.
With party lists politicians have little incentive to turn to the voters, but struggle mainly for a safe place on the list.

True.
To be honest I can't name any of my MEP's...

Yeah, that's true. Many of the Swedish MEPs aren't elected, people get bored so quickly of the parliament that they leave during their term and are replaced.

[Gustaf]

Actually

PSE 232 (MAIN STREAM SOCIALISTS AND SOCIAL DEMOCRATS) THE ESTASHBLISHMENT PARTY FAVOURING ALL POSSIBLE MAJORITIAN AND STATUS QUO VIEWS
INCLUDES ALSO PRG FROM FRANCE.

PPE-ED  296 (CHRISTIAN DEMOCRATS, CONSERVATIVES AND FEEL BIG CONSERVATIVES) THE GROUP IS RATHER DIVIDED. INCLUDES PRO-CATHLOLIC CD AND EUROSKEPTICAL CONSERVATIVES AND PARTIES WHO HAVE HEARD STORIES THAT THE PPE-ED IS THE BIG PARTY OF THE PARLIAMENT.

ELDR 66 (MARKET LIBERALS, SOCIAL LIBERALS AND CENTRIST PARTIES)

GUE-NGL 55 (ALL POSSIBLE GROUPS LEFT TO PSE)

GREENS/ ARE 46 (GREENS AND REGIONALISTS)
ONE MEMBER FROM NEW STATES !!!

30 UEN ( NATIONLISTS AND CONSERVATIVE PARTIES NOT BELONGING TO PPE-ED)

18 EDD (HUNTERS, ANTI-MARKETERS AND DUTCH CALVINISTS)

45 NI (INDIPEDENT, ACTUALLY EXTREME RIGHT, LEGA NORD, ITALIAN RADICALS, MECIARITES AND PAISLY)

EDD also includes EU-critics, such as Folkbevaegelsen and Junibevaegelsen from Denmark, I believe.

[Gustaf]

The word anti-marketer refers to these EU critic movements (I found it in old English book about EP).  The future of that groups depends on fact whether the MPF (de VILLIER list)  or some other French element will join them.

One can be anti-EU without being anti-market. I am.

[Gustaf]

Problems with PR:

1) Extremists win seats
2) Undemocratic

Better to have extremist parties in parliament than underground outside parliament. And I don't see how PR is undemocratic. 10% of the population want a party in parliament, so you give them 10% of the seats. Seems logical, I think.

It's undemocratic because it removes local representation and links to the MP/whatever.
It also gives the party bosses too much power.

Good points...it's hard to decide, both systems have their advantages and disadvantages.

I will now change my prediction:

SAP: 5 seats (change from last election: -1)

M:    4 seats (-1)

FP:   2 seats (-1)

V:     2 seats (-1)

MP:   2 seats (0)

C:     1 seat   (0)

KD:   1 seat   (-1)

JL:    1 seat   (+1)

That leaves 1 seat hanging, which I am not sure who will win. I think one of the 3 V, MP and FP will though. KD is the only party I know won't win it.

[Gustaf]

Just read through this and it was fun, even though I did not understand everything. I just want to make sure that Viivi Avellan gets a seat to prepare for her victorious run for the premiership in the next Finnish elections.

How do you think Israel would vote? If they had say, 10 setas, I would guess something like:
Likud-4
Shinui-2
Labour-1
Shas an UTJ (hareidi list)-1
Mafdal and Ichud Le'umi (far-right list)-2
Yachad-0
Arab list-0

Anyone else want to make hypothetical predictions for democracies surrounfing the EU, say Iceland, Noway,Russia, Croatia, Serbia & Montenegro, Switzerland, Ukrains, and Israel? The countries where application, however unlikely, is being considered.

You mean how well internal parties woud do?

[Gustaf]

Yes, presuming the wildly implausible scenario they were admitted into the EU tomorrow and voted in these elections.

Norway will be admitted whenever they want to join. They might, sadly, do so soon.   After 2 referendums ending in 2 'no's, they shoud be content.

[Gustaf]

Most recent Swedish poll, by a reliable company:

SAP: 35.9%

M: 24.7%

FP: 11.5%

V: 11.1%

MP: 5.9%

C: 4.4%

JL: 3.4%

KD: 2.6%

My prediction of ZERO seats for the KD is holding true. JL will get a boost now, which should be enough to give them the 4% required for a seat. SAP is WAAAAAAAAY overestimated. The respondency rate was about 51% in this poll and turnout's gonna be a lot lower than that.

[Gustaf]

Most recent Swedish poll, by a reliable company:
SAP: 35.9%
M: 24.7%
FP: 11.5%
V: 11.1%
MP: 5.9%
C: 4.4%
JL: 3.4%
KD: 2.6%
My prediction of ZERO seats for the KD is holding true. JL will get a boost now, which should be enough to give them the 4% required for a seat. SAP is WAAAAAAAAY overestimated. The respondency rate was about 51% in this poll and turnout's gonna be a lot lower than that.

SAP = Social Democrats, M = Mainstram Conservatives, V = Commies, MP = Greens.
C = Centre? KD = Christian Democrats? FP = Rightwing populists? Or ist that elsewhere in Scandinavia? And who's JL?

M are the most radical conservatives, though they're rather libertarian than conservative.

C does stand for Centre Party, and they're agrarian, rural and farmer interests. FP is liberal, kind of like FDP in Germany. Not Fremskrittspartiet, that only exists in Denmark and Norway.

JL is Junilistan, new party that's EU-critical. Wants to remain a member of the EU, but roll back the EU bureaucracy, etc.

[Gustaf]

JL is Junilistan, new party that's EU-critical. Wants to remain a member of the EU, but roll back the EU bureaucracy, etc.

Do they have any relation to the Danish party Junibevaegelsen, which is also EU-critical?

Sort of, though not directly linked, Junilistan has recieved some money from them and will probably join the same group (EDD). It isn't as left-winged though and also not as influential or well-organized, mostly since it's so new.

[Gustaf]

I get a maximum of only 15 seats from that... I expereinced the same problem when I made my first prediction...welcome to the forum, it's nice to see another Scandinavian on here.

[Gustaf]

Prediction for the Swedish EU elections:

Left Party (GUE/NGL) 2 (-1)
Social Democrats (PSE) 6 (+/-0)
Greens (Greens/EFA) 1 (-1)
Centre Party (ELDR) 1 (+/-0)
Liberal Party (ELDR) 3 (+/-0)
Libertarians/Conservatives (EPP-ED) 5 (+/-0)
Christian Democrats (EPP-ED) 0 (-2)
June Ballot (EDD) 1 (-)

Hm, that's like a mirror image of my current prediction... (I don't remember if I updated the last one here on the forum though). Though, I think that C might lose their seat. Also, SAP might still fall badly, their voters won't vote on electino day, I think. JL might surprise and get a 2nd seat, but that would require luck, obviously. It could happen if both C and KD get below 4% though.  

[Gustaf]

Prediction for the Swedish EU elections:

Left Party (GUE/NGL) 2 (-1)
Social Democrats (PSE) 6 (+/-0)
Greens (Greens/EFA) 1 (-1)
Centre Party (ELDR) 1 (+/-0)
Liberal Party (ELDR) 3 (+/-0)
Libertarians/Conservatives (EPP-ED) 5 (+/-0)
Christian Democrats (EPP-ED) 0 (-2)
June Ballot (EDD) 1 (-)

Hm, that's like a mirror image of my current prediction... (I don't remember if I updated the last one here on the forum though). Though, I think that C might lose their seat. Also, SAP might still fall badly, their voters won't vote on electino day, I think. JL might surprise and get a 2nd seat, but that would require luck, obviously. It could happen if both C and KD get below 4% though.  

True. S voters are probably the ones least inclined to go out and vote. The got only 26% last time and turnout will probably be even lower this time, so it's perfectly possible they'll get only 5 seats. And I agree that it's possible that C and KD will get 0 seats, since their voters are soffliggare and EU-skeptics as well. June Ballot could also get 0 seats. But let's say S gets 5, C and KD 0 and June Ballot 1. That makes two remaining seats. Turnout among greens and leftists will probably not be very high either, so it's possible that those three seats go to M and FP. That means M gets 30% and FP 20%. Turnout must be very low among left-of-center folks for that to happen and significantly higher among right-of-center-voters.

Alternative scenario:
Left Party (GUE/NGL) 2 (-1)
Social Democrats (PSE) 5 (-1)
Greens (Greens/EFA) 1 (-1)
Centre Party (ELDR) 0 (-1)
Liberal Party (ELDR) 4 (+1)
Libertarians/Conservatives (EPP-ED) 6 (+1)
Christian Democrats (EPP-ED) 0 (-2)
June Ballot (EDD) 1 (-)

I don't think it will happen though since turnout isn't likely to be that much higher among right-of-center voters.

I think June Ballot (if that's our translation of Junilistan... ) stands a better chance of getting a seat, simply since it's a new party with a positive trend. With 3.4% in the last Sifo they're only 0.6% from a seat. C and KD are both going down completely I suspect, since they're out of touch with their voters and have weak candidates. C has a strong party organisation, but that's their only hope. I think FP is likely to get 3 seats, since I expect them to have very high turnout. The same goes for M.

Something like this, perhaps:

SAP: 5

M:    5

FP:   3

V:     3

MP:   1

JL:     1

C:      0

KD:    0

The required percentages for seats are, roughly:

1 seat:  4%

2 seats: 8%

3 seats: 13.5%

4 seats: 18.5%

5 seats: 24%

6 seats: 29%

7 seats: 34.5%

This will be slightly lower though if 2 parties get less than 4%, as in the above scenario. I think FP is likely to get bout 13.5% due to higher turnout. V also has more determined voters when it comes to European electinos, C, KD and SAP have the least interested voters in these elections. I have only distributed 18 seats above, the last one I'm not sure of, but I think that MP or June Ballot could get it, with something like 6-7% (MP being favoured right now).

[Gustaf]

Did you read this?

http://www.svd.se/dynamiskt/inrikes/did_7475439.asp

Says turnout is highest among FP voters, followed by KD voters(!), M voters, V voters, S voters, C voters and MP voters. 51% of MP voters are sure not no vote, which is why I don't think they'll get two seats, they might even lose the two they currently have. If you want to protest vote Jonas Sjöstedt (V) is probably a more well-known alternative. And besides, all parties seem to be EU-skeptics nowadays, so MP getting much of the NO-voters' votes might belong to the past.

UPDATED
The required percentages (100-4)/18=5,33:
1 seat: 4%
2 seats: 9,3%
3 seats: 14,6%
4 seats: 20,0%
5 seats: 25,3%
6 seats: 30,6%
7 seats: 36,0%

That is, if it's true that you get a seat if you're above 4%, should be 100/19=5,26%.

Nah, the media messed that up big time...I made calculations based on several polls using the actual method, and those are the results. You can look up "jämkade uddatalsmetoden" in NE if you want and replicate it, or oyu can just trust me on my word...

It's actually like this:

1 seat:  2.7%

2 seats: 8.2%

etc, but since 4% is required to get seats at all, I put that instead of 2.7%. Sorry if it was confusing.  

Yes, I did see that, I based my prediction of the turnout on that...however, you have to keep in mind that the MoE gets really big once you start doing smaller parties like that. I am basing my predictions on a pretty thourough study of the polls leading up to the euro-referendum. They all pointed at turnout being relatively high among socialists (v) and Greens (mp).

[Gustaf]

Hmm... seems a little too complicated for me right now...

Lol, it isn't all that complicated. In fact, much less so than I thought. Rule of thumb: every party will get a seat for every full 5.3% they recieve. Then, those who are closest to a full seat will get the remaining seats. (that is not actually how it works technically, but it's a simplified way of explaining the general idea). Half of 5.3% is 2.65%. You need slightly above that to be close to a seat. I used the correct method on 3 different polls and got 2.74%, 2.74% and 2.76% respectively as the required percentages for 1 seat. 5.3%+2.7%=8%. (in fact it has been 8.2% for 2 seats when I applied the method, but those are all rough numbers anyway). This could actually be lower if 1 or more parties drop below 4%.  

[Gustaf]

Latest opinion poll in The Netherlands (not exact number of seats, because those are hard to predict because of the Dutch electoral system and the expected low turnout):

Total 27 seats

CDA 9-10 seats (EPP)
Pvda 6-7 (PES)
VVD 5-6 (ELDR)
CU/SGP 2-3 (EDD)
SP 1-2 (UEL/NGL)
GL 1-2 (Greens)
Animal's Party 0-1
Europe Transparent 0-1
D66 0-1 (ELDR)
Pim Fortuyn List 0-1

And it was more probable that the Animal's Party and Europe Transparent get a seat than D66 or LPF.

Europe Transparent is founded by Paul van Buitenen. He worked for the European Union in Brussels for years. A few years ago he was a whistleblower, it was about fraud in the EU. Mostly because of his reports the European Commission (led by Jacques Santer) had to resign, and Van Buitenen was fired as reward. And now he wants to return to Brussels, to continue his investigations as a MEP.

I hope Van Buitenen gets in.

The Centre Party is finally dropping in the polls, 4,8% in yesterday's poll. June Ballot still at about 3.5%, as is KD. THe others aren't going anywhere either it seems.

[Gustaf]

Looks like Kilroy Silk and the UKIP will win a few seats... And if their is any justice Galloway will be humiliated, I really doubt that that Trot and his cronies will get a single seat and i really hope I'm right on that.

On Europe and the EU I personally think its good that UKIP and the Greens do well as that should help shatter the sense of inevitability in greater and great EU integration. It does worry me a fair bit and most of my friends here in the UK.

But Kilroy and the Greens can hopefully "rattle some cages"

That said, the UKIP does worry me a bit, not Kilroy he seems vain but not a radical and seems well intentioned, the leadership of UKIP however seem to represents a very very conservative brand of political thought…but not of the lunatic and down-right dangerous brand extolled by the thugs in the BNP…  

Thanks Ben. The UKIP are a bunch of nutjobs, but in the European elections it doesn't matter much, so it's be fun to see them get in and scare the sh*t out of the establsihement.

[Gustaf]

Yes... but the UKIP *is* the establishment to a certain degree... look at the sort of people who've endorsed them...

Sean Gabb?

The establishement is not defined as having money or even power or standing in society. Is rather being part of the "right" group. Journalists are for instance more of a part of establishement than most businessmen and even many politicians. In fact, few businessmen are part of the establishement, it's sort of the same as with workers and trade unions. Most business power is in their organizations.

[Gustaf]

Here are the final predictions

    P  S  L  G  C U E  X M O
AT  6  7  0  2  0 0 0  1 0 2 18

A new party in Austria?

I think, it's the HPM (Hans-Peter Martin) list.
Martin is a former member of the SPÖ group in the EU parliament. His main topic seems to be the incorrect behaviour of EU parliament members in getting expenses and extra pays.
In the polls the HMP list gets 10-15% !

Yes, he got kicked out when he revealed that his colleagues were corrupted.

[Gustaf]

New EOS Gallup poll for all of the EU:

http://www.eosgallupeurope.com/eosee%202004/index.html

This one actually does not seem to be all that bad...please consider the samples of about 700 and the fact that it's a little dated by now. But for Sweden it seems pretty much spot on.

[Gustaf]

Yay! Europa Transparent got in!

Good for van Buitenen.

Now, the latest poll from Sweden:

SAP: 32.7%, 7 seats (+1)

M:     22.3%, 4 seats (-1)

V:     11.1%, 2 seats (-1)

FP:   10.1%, 2 seats (-1)

MP:    8.5%, 2 seats (0)

JL:      5.2%, 1 seat (+1)

C:       4.7%, 1 seat (0)

KD:     3.9%, 0 seats (-2)

Finally a poll that makes some sense! I'm gonna post a new one at midnight, when it comes out, but since SIFO, who conducted this one, is the only reliable institute, I'll go with them. June List is the only party with a clear positive trend, and I expect them to make further gains in the final days. KD is dead and I think C might well lose their footing as well. I certainly hope they do. SAP is gonna get hurt badly by turnout. I think they'll lose a seat and either M or JL will get that seat. I don't expect MP, FP or V to get anything but 2 seats. They're not going anywhere, IMHO.

[Gustaf]

Yay! Europa Transparent got in!

Good for van Buitenen.

Now, the latest poll from Sweden:

SAP: 32.7%, 7 seats (+1)

M:     22.3%, 4 seats (-1)

V:     11.1%, 2 seats (-1)

FP:   10.1%, 2 seats (-1)

MP:    8.5%, 2 seats (0)

JL:      5.2%, 1 seat (+1)

C:       4.7%, 1 seat (0)

KD:     3.9%, 0 seats (-2)

Finally a poll that makes some sense! I'm gonna post a new one at midnight, when it comes out, but since SIFO, who conducted this one, is the only reliable institute, I'll go with them. June List is the only party with a clear positive trend, and I expect them to make further gains in the final days. KD is dead and I think C might well lose their footing as well. I certainly hope they do. SAP is gonna get hurt badly by turnout. I think they'll lose a seat and either M or JL will get that seat. I don't expect MP, FP or V to get anything but 2 seats. They're not going anywhere, IMHO.

Can you give signification (left, center, right,...) of SAP, V,... thanks! Thanks all for your participation! I'm happy to be on this forum!

Sure.

Left:

SAP is the Swedish labour Party, the major left-of-centre party. Very pro-EU.

V is the socialist party, the major leftist party. Wants to leave the EU.

Right:

M is the major conservative party, though it used to be more libertarian than conservative. Now they're turning into moderate socioconservatives. Used to be very pro-EU. now trying to pose as EU-critics.

FP is a socially liberal right-of-centre party that has taken a sharp turn towards opportunism, which in this case means fascism, in recent years. Fanatical federalists.

KD are the Christian Democrats, who are VERY moderate compared to most other Christian Democrats in the world. Clearly pro-EU.

C is the party for agrarian and rural interests. Used to be very sceptical towards EUrope but are now born-again federalists.

Neither left or right, sort of:

MP, the greens in Sweden. They're really left-of-centre nowadays. Used to be completely opposed to the EU, but are now moderating their stand to favouring more centralization on taxes and not arguing for withdrawal from the EU anymore.

JL is a cross-political party that wants to remain a member of the EU, but reduce the centralization and take back most political powers to the individual memberstates.

[Gustaf]

Right:
FP is a socially liberal right-of-centre party that has taken a sharp turn towards opportunism, which in this case means fascism, in recent years. Fanatical federalists.

Come on, Gustav - calling FP for fascist is pushing it too far. It seems to me that the reason why they have been getting good result these last years is the combenation of a talentet and carismatic leader and a clear centre orientated policy. Those areas where Moderaterna have failed - but fascists, not even close to.

I didn't say they were fascists, only that they have moved towards fascism. They're going somewhere, and it's not conservatism and certainly not liberalism. I usually use the term in the hope that there will be FP-supporters nearby, since they turn red and very angry. Their campaign last election was focused on getting anti-immigrant votes and they mostly talk about the need for more police officers, curbing civil rights and keeping out immigrants nowadays.

Your last sentence is a somewhat crude and unfair, but still funny, joke. Charismatic? Centre-orientated? He's one of the most uncharismatic politicians in the country and FP has definitely moved right, a LOT.

[Gustaf]

Right:
FP is a socially liberal right-of-centre party that has taken a sharp turn towards opportunism, which in this case means fascism, in recent years. Fanatical federalists.

Come on, Gustav - calling FP for fascist is pushing it too far. It seems to me that the reason why they have been getting good result these last years is the combenation of a talentet and carismatic leader and a clear centre orientated policy. Those areas where Moderaterna have failed - but fascists, not even close to.

I didn't say they were fascists, only that they have moved towards fascism. They're going somewhere, and it's not conservatism and certainly not liberalism. I usually use the term in the hope that there will be FP-supporters nearby, since they turn red and very angry. Their campaign last election was focused on getting anti-immigrant votes and they mostly talk about the need for more police officers, curbing civil rights and keeping out immigrants nowadays.

Your last sentence is a somewhat crude and unfair, but still funny, joke. Charismatic? Centre-orientated? He's one of the most uncharismatic politicians in the country and FP has definitely moved right, a LOT.

I'm not sure that I would call that moving to the right. Take a look at Denmark. Nearly every party (exempt Unity List) talks about problems with immigrants and 2. generation immigrant and the picture is the same in most of Europe. It is, I think, a very undefined fear of a rapidly changing society that many people is having a hard time understanding and grasping. That fear is projected at easily identifiable groups like immigrant and simple demands like law and order. Focus is changing and I think FP is one of the parties that got it quickest (Not saying that I like it)

(PS included Moderaterna to wake you. I think I remember that you would vote for them if you could

Yes, I think so...then again, maybe not. The thing is, I don't fit in any party in Sweden.

What you say about immigration and politics is true, I'm not arguing that. My simple point is that for a party that is supposedly the standard bearer for tolerant, humane, wuzzy liberalism, all about being nice to everyone, it's a little strange to suddenly speak out against immigration. One of their slogans was "we say that which others don't dare to", classic racist talk. This is a party that has always argued in favour of a generous immigration policy and for civil rights rather than police authority. They are now in favour of bugging...now, I actually think they're right on a lot of issues, they're closer to me politically now than they used to be, I'm still to their right. But they've sold their soul to get votes, and I find that hard to like.  

[Gustaf]

Right:
FP is a socially liberal right-of-centre party that has taken a sharp turn towards opportunism, which in this case means fascism, in recent years. Fanatical federalists.

Come on, Gustav - calling FP for fascist is pushing it too far. It seems to me that the reason why they have been getting good result these last years is the combenation of a talentet and carismatic leader and a clear centre orientated policy. Those areas where Moderaterna have failed - but fascists, not even close to.

I didn't say they were fascists, only that they have moved towards fascism. They're going somewhere, and it's not conservatism and certainly not liberalism. I usually use the term in the hope that there will be FP-supporters nearby, since they turn red and very angry. Their campaign last election was focused on getting anti-immigrant votes and they mostly talk about the need for more police officers, curbing civil rights and keeping out immigrants nowadays.

Your last sentence is a somewhat crude and unfair, but still funny, joke. Charismatic? Centre-orientated? He's one of the most uncharismatic politicians in the country and FP has definitely moved right, a LOT.

I'm not sure that I would call that moving to the right. Take a look at Denmark. Nearly every party (exempt Unity List) talks about problems with immigrants and 2. generation immigrant and the picture is the same in most of Europe. It is, I think, a very undefined fear of a rapidly changing society that many people is having a hard time understanding and grasping. That fear is projected at easily identifiable groups like immigrant and simple demands like law and order. Focus is changing and I think FP is one of the parties that got it quickest (Not saying that I like it)

(PS included Moderaterna to wake you. I think I remember that you would vote for them if you could

Yes, I think so...then again, maybe not. The thing is, I don't fit in any party in Sweden.

What you say about immigration and politics is true, I'm not arguing that. My simple point is that for a party that is supposedly the standard bearer for tolerant, humane, wuzzy liberalism, all about being nice to everyone, it's a little strange to suddenly speak out against immigration. One of their slogans was "we say that which others don't dare to", classic racist talk. This is a party that has always argued in favour of a generous immigration policy and for civil rights rather than police authority. They are now in favour of bugging...now, I actually think they're right on a lot of issues, they're closer to me politically now than they used to be, I'm still to their right. But they've sold their soul to get votes, and I find that hard to like.  

I fully agree and find it quite desturbing that clasically liberal parties change that much. In DK the Socialdemocrats have gone the same way. A party that used to base its existance on creating better possibilities for the poor (these days mainly immigrants and their descendants) are now calling them lasy and a threat to the Danish way- what ever that is.

We're beginning to ask ourselves what the heck you Danes are up to... You're freaking us out with your immigration policies.

I think the FP will end up in trouble, since 1 day they'll wake up and realize that they have no idelogical core. The only reason for their recent success is the weakness of other right-winged parties. With the conservatives now moving leftwards rapidly I see the FP beginning to lose ground. Most of their people are still uncharismatic bureacrats, just like in the good old days.