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  How much did the abortion-comments affect the outcome?
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Author Topic: How much did the abortion-comments affect the outcome?  (Read 1076 times)
Redban
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« on: July 09, 2013, 05:22:13 pm »

The comments by the Missouri and Indiana Republicans made national headlines.

How much did it hurt the outcome?

If all the rape stuff never happened, how much closer would the popular vote have been? Would any of the states be a different color?
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barfbag
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« Reply #1 on: July 09, 2013, 07:04:17 pm »

It hurt in Missouri. McCaskill was doomed after voting for Obamacare. We blew it. How hard is it to say whatever people want to hear?
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(CT) The Free North
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« Reply #2 on: July 09, 2013, 07:47:58 pm »

Cost both elections.


Its what the media wants people to care about, so its all of a sudden a huge deal.


Both candidates deserved to lose and acted like morons.
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TJ in Oregon
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« Reply #3 on: July 09, 2013, 09:42:24 pm »

Romney might have won Florida and the Republicans would have won the senate seats in Missouri and Indiana (well maybe; Mourdock might have found something else crazy to say to screw it up). I don't think it made enough of a difference to deliver Virginia or Colorado and I'm assuming it would not have affected Ohio or Pennsylvania as much as Virginia and Colorado.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #4 on: July 09, 2013, 10:04:24 pm »

Romney might have won Florida and the Republicans would have won the senate seats in Missouri and Indiana (well maybe; Mourdock might have found something else crazy to say to screw it up). I don't think it made enough of a difference to deliver Virginia or Colorado and I'm assuming it would not have affected Ohio or Pennsylvania as much as Virginia and Colorado.

Philly suburbs?
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Clarko95
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« Reply #5 on: July 09, 2013, 10:13:39 pm »

The comments themselves have very little effect on the outcome of the Presidential election. It would be a bit of a stretch to say they threw the election to Obama.

But what they did do was contribute to the perception that the Republican Party as a whole was too conservative on social issues. That probably pushed a lot of on the fence voters into opposing Romney, and caused some moderates would be in the Romney camp into undecideds.

This perception is seriously hurting the GOP. And they refuse to deal with it, which is a shame because if they could stop it they could start winning elections.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #6 on: July 10, 2013, 03:30:50 am »
« Edited: July 10, 2013, 03:33:43 am by Waukesha County »

Yep, this is really frustrating to talk about so I'm just going to leave it that it costs us Missouri and Indiana, also national republicans as a whole also costs us North Dakota and Montana. It should've been 51-49 but no, stupid far right republicans screwed 2012 over.

Edit: Also only Florida was probably affected at the presidential level, it still would not have won Romney the election as Obama almost always had a small lead. 
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #7 on: July 10, 2013, 06:41:54 am »

North Dakota and Montana were entirely the fault of the GOP candidates running crappy campaigns in both cases.


The comments determined Indiana and Missouri Senate races.


The Fluke controversy in February had a much greater impact on costing Romney women and independent voters then did Akin, which only served to make more severe an already serious problem.

Romney owned Florida on February 1st, 2012. Contrary to the media reporting he came out of the Florida primary in a solid condition with even his Bain Capital experience having a net positive approval amongst all voters. Had the election been held on that date, Romney would have won the state by five to ten points. It was the steady, unresponded to bombardment over the summer, an insufficient turnout operation in the end and the failure by Romney's team to anticipate the strength of the Obama operation in the state, that led to Obama's victory there.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #8 on: July 10, 2013, 09:34:55 am »

North Dakota and Montana were entirely the fault of the GOP candidates running crappy campaigns in both cases.


The comments determined Indiana and Missouri Senate races.


The Fluke controversy in February had a much greater impact on costing Romney women and independent voters then did Akin, which only served to make more severe an already serious problem.

Romney owned Florida on February 1st, 2012. Contrary to the media reporting he came out of the Florida primary in a solid condition with even his Bain Capital experience having a net positive approval amongst all voters. Had the election been held on that date, Romney would have won the state by five to ten points. It was the steady, unresponded to bombardment over the summer, an insufficient turnout operation in the end and the failure by Romney's team to anticipate the strength of the Obama operation in the state, that led to Obama's victory there.

I don't think abortion factored that prominently in Florida in 2012.  The D base there isn't particularly upscale and the one major upscale socially liberal D county (Palm Beach) swung quite heavily to Romney.  Self deportation and anti-immigrant rhetoric was much more relevant there, both for motivating Hispanic Dems in Orlando and Tampa and swinging Cuban moderates in Miami en masse to Obama.

CO, NH and IA are where abortion/social issues mattered most IMO, with an honorable mention to VA.  They all fit the left-libertarian profile, are less diverse than the nation and have a lot of upscale Democrats. 

Honestly, Florida looks like it's on the brink of demographic oblivion for the GOP.  Romney had a greater non-Hispanic white swing there than nationally according to exit polls (from 56% McCain to 61% Romney), but the electorate fell from 71% non-Hispanic white in 2008 to 67% in 2012 which entirely explains Obama's surprise win.  VA is the only other state where Romney did better than nationally with non-Hispanic white voters and still lost. 

This is why Rubio and Jeb Bush are leading the charge on immigration reform.  It's not about Texas and Arizona.  It's because Florida could start voting left of the nation, which would leave the GOP as bad off as the late 19th century Dems in the electoral college.   
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barfbag
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« Reply #9 on: July 11, 2013, 01:26:54 am »

North Dakota and Montana were entirely the fault of the GOP candidates running crappy campaigns in both cases.


The comments determined Indiana and Missouri Senate races.


The Fluke controversy in February had a much greater impact on costing Romney women and independent voters then did Akin, which only served to make more severe an already serious problem.

Romney owned Florida on February 1st, 2012. Contrary to the media reporting he came out of the Florida primary in a solid condition with even his Bain Capital experience having a net positive approval amongst all voters. Had the election been held on that date, Romney would have won the state by five to ten points. It was the steady, unresponded to bombardment over the summer, an insufficient turnout operation in the end and the failure by Romney's team to anticipate the strength of the Obama operation in the state, that led to Obama's victory there.

I don't think abortion factored that prominently in Florida in 2012.  The D base there isn't particularly upscale and the one major upscale socially liberal D county (Palm Beach) swung quite heavily to Romney.  Self deportation and anti-immigrant rhetoric was much more relevant there, both for motivating Hispanic Dems in Orlando and Tampa and swinging Cuban moderates in Miami en masse to Obama.

CO, NH and IA are where abortion/social issues mattered most IMO, with an honorable mention to VA.  They all fit the left-libertarian profile, are less diverse than the nation and have a lot of upscale Democrats. 

Honestly, Florida looks like it's on the brink of demographic oblivion for the GOP.  Romney had a greater non-Hispanic white swing there than nationally according to exit polls (from 56% McCain to 61% Romney), but the electorate fell from 71% non-Hispanic white in 2008 to 67% in 2012 which entirely explains Obama's surprise win.  VA is the only other state where Romney did better than nationally with non-Hispanic white voters and still lost. 

This is why Rubio and Jeb Bush are leading the charge on immigration reform.  It's not about Texas and Arizona.  It's because Florida could start voting left of the nation, which would leave the GOP as bad off as the late 19th century Dems in the electoral college.   

Romney didn't make any abortion gaffes so he wasn't penalized but Republicans who did lost over it. Mitt Romney took a very moderate stance where he was pro-life but wouldn't pass any abortion legislation kind of like Clinton in 1992.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #10 on: July 11, 2013, 04:45:43 am »

North Dakota and Montana were entirely the fault of the GOP candidates running crappy campaigns in both cases.


The comments determined Indiana and Missouri Senate races.


The Fluke controversy in February had a much greater impact on costing Romney women and independent voters then did Akin, which only served to make more severe an already serious problem.

Romney owned Florida on February 1st, 2012. Contrary to the media reporting he came out of the Florida primary in a solid condition with even his Bain Capital experience having a net positive approval amongst all voters. Had the election been held on that date, Romney would have won the state by five to ten points. It was the steady, unresponded to bombardment over the summer, an insufficient turnout operation in the end and the failure by Romney's team to anticipate the strength of the Obama operation in the state, that led to Obama's victory there.

I don't think abortion factored that prominently in Florida in 2012.  The D base there isn't particularly upscale and the one major upscale socially liberal D county (Palm Beach) swung quite heavily to Romney.  Self deportation and anti-immigrant rhetoric was much more relevant there, both for motivating Hispanic Dems in Orlando and Tampa and swinging Cuban moderates in Miami en masse to Obama.

CO, NH and IA are where abortion/social issues mattered most IMO, with an honorable mention to VA.  They all fit the left-libertarian profile, are less diverse than the nation and have a lot of upscale Democrats. 

Honestly, Florida looks like it's on the brink of demographic oblivion for the GOP.  Romney had a greater non-Hispanic white swing there than nationally according to exit polls (from 56% McCain to 61% Romney), but the electorate fell from 71% non-Hispanic white in 2008 to 67% in 2012 which entirely explains Obama's surprise win.  VA is the only other state where Romney did better than nationally with non-Hispanic white voters and still lost. 

This is why Rubio and Jeb Bush are leading the charge on immigration reform.  It's not about Texas and Arizona.  It's because Florida could start voting left of the nation, which would leave the GOP as bad off as the late 19th century Dems in the electoral college.   

Romney didn't make any abortion gaffes so he wasn't penalized but Republicans who did lost over it. Mitt Romney took a very moderate stance where he was pro-life but wouldn't pass any abortion legislation kind of like Clinton in 1992.

He said repeatedly that he would defund and even "get rid of" planned parenthood.

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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #11 on: July 11, 2013, 05:18:21 am »

North Dakota and Montana were entirely the fault of the GOP candidates running crappy campaigns in both cases.


The comments determined Indiana and Missouri Senate races.


The Fluke controversy in February had a much greater impact on costing Romney women and independent voters then did Akin, which only served to make more severe an already serious problem.

Romney owned Florida on February 1st, 2012. Contrary to the media reporting he came out of the Florida primary in a solid condition with even his Bain Capital experience having a net positive approval amongst all voters. Had the election been held on that date, Romney would have won the state by five to ten points. It was the steady, unresponded to bombardment over the summer, an insufficient turnout operation in the end and the failure by Romney's team to anticipate the strength of the Obama operation in the state, that led to Obama's victory there.

I don't think abortion factored that prominently in Florida in 2012.  The D base there isn't particularly upscale and the one major upscale socially liberal D county (Palm Beach) swung quite heavily to Romney.  Self deportation and anti-immigrant rhetoric was much more relevant there, both for motivating Hispanic Dems in Orlando and Tampa and swinging Cuban moderates in Miami en masse to Obama.

CO, NH and IA are where abortion/social issues mattered most IMO, with an honorable mention to VA.  They all fit the left-libertarian profile, are less diverse than the nation and have a lot of upscale Democrats. 

Honestly, Florida looks like it's on the brink of demographic oblivion for the GOP.  Romney had a greater non-Hispanic white swing there than nationally according to exit polls (from 56% McCain to 61% Romney), but the electorate fell from 71% non-Hispanic white in 2008 to 67% in 2012 which entirely explains Obama's surprise win.  VA is the only other state where Romney did better than nationally with non-Hispanic white voters and still lost. 

This is why Rubio and Jeb Bush are leading the charge on immigration reform.  It's not about Texas and Arizona.  It's because Florida could start voting left of the nation, which would leave the GOP as bad off as the late 19th century Dems in the electoral college.   

I disagree. Romney beat Gingrich by over twenty points (getting over 50%) amongst Hispanic voters (and did better amongst non-Cubans than Cubans but the difference was slight) in the GOP primary, immediately after he made the famous "self-deportation" comment in the GOP debate. Why is that? Romney never said one damn thing that was "anti-immigrant" and went to excessive lengths to articulate support for legal immigration and even went so far as to support an alternative version of the Dream Act (a few months later though). In the debate Gingrich called Romney "anti-immigrant" and immediately afterwards Rubio (who still held the same position as Romney at that time) fired back and refuted the notion that Romney was "anti-immigrant just because he opposed illegal immigration". That episode won Romney the support needed amongst Hispanics to win and big in Florida had the general election been February 1st. If your theory was correct, then Romney would have been in his worst condition during and after that primary amongst all Hispanics, and most certainly would have lost amongst GOP Hispanics to Gingrich who was far weaker on the issue. That isn't what happened. It was not until Arizona came along that Hispanics turned against Romney in the primaries and they ended up voting for Santorum if the maps are any guide (lol because he has the same position as Romney), long after the "Self-deportation comment" and certainly less in the conscious then in the state in which it was made and where votes were cast just a few days latter. What the Romney campaign should have done was find a way to triangulate the immigration issue, using the Arizona law much like Rubio did in Florida in 2010. Romney could have stated that him "getting the job done federally" would remove the need for the AZ law and thus it could be repealed. That way he could acknowledge the percieved need on the part of its supporters to have done something in a crisis, whilst working for its removal by ending the situation that caused it to come about.

The notion that Romney was anti-immigrant was a fašade created by the left, the open-borders wing of the GOP and the media, that he failed to adequately respond to and refute in a coordinated effort. I have often said he lacked a "hispanic strategy" and by that I mean this. I never meant that he needed to support amnesty, I meant that his campaign needed to refute this false charge effectively and then offer an alternative on bread and butter issues like healthcare, education and the economy that Hispanics as well as other groups could embrace. The reason this never happened is because his camapign was both insular and permeated with the same establishment thinking that served to create the notion that Romney was anti-immigrant, so they didn't attempt to salvage Romney's image amongst Hispanics, more or less try to win them, because they didn't think it was possible them and because they thought that could win without them thanks to them having a crappy polling operation.

Perception is reality in politics and when you let your opponent bombard your swing states and don't respond, when you let your opponent define you as whatever and when you fail to offer a credible alternative, you are going to lose and that is why Romney lost and that is why the GOP can pass every damn amnesty bill ever written and give Guiterrez and Schumer everything they want unto infinity and still lose every election between now and the end of times. Because Romney lost, the false perception has now become the reality and that is why the long knives are out and they are determined in the GOP establishment to pass this garbage bill now.
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