Luxembourg 2013
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #25 on: July 15, 2013, 01:52:50 PM »

Quite hard to understand if you're not familiar with it or a similar dialect of German!

Isn't that true of any language, though? Tongue

Not quite. In fact, for me as a North German it is easier to understand Dutch than Letzeburgisch (or Schwizerdütsch, for that matter). For ZuWo, as a Swiss, it is obviously the other way round. The differences between German dialects, especially the North German (Low Saxon) and the Southwestern (Allemannic) ones are quite strong, with High German serving as a bridge.
While out here in the middle, Luxemburgish is, barely, sorta, with occasional gaps, understandable. While Swiss* and Dutch are not.

*okay, not quite true.
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Franknburger
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« Reply #26 on: July 16, 2013, 09:58:28 AM »
« Edited: July 16, 2013, 12:14:28 PM by Franknburger »

In order to finish up with the Luxembourg mapping exercise, I have also prepared a map of the leading party in the 2011 local elections. The usual caveats of interpolating local election results to the national mood probably apply even more to Luxembourg than to many other countries:

- EU citizen vote: Almost 45% of Luxembourg's inhabitants are foreigners. This includes many EU citizens, most notably substantial Portuguese and Italian immigrant communities, but also employees of European institutions, and French / Belgian / German citizens residing on the Luxembourg side of the border. In each the three largest cities, Luxembourg city, Esch s/Alzette and Differdange, there were some 20% more registered voters for the 2011 local than for the 2009 parliamentary election, and no remarkable difference in abstention rates between both elections.

- Party representation: Most smaller communities did only have individuals, but no parties on the local ballot. Even in larger towns, there were often only 3-4 parties running. ADR, the Left and KPL only ran in Luxembourg city and a few larger cities in the South. Two communities north of Luxembourg City, including a traditional LSAP stronghold, did not have LSAP on the ballot and a (most likely LSAP-backed) local list coming in first.



Nevertheless, the 2011 local election results suggest some trouble ahead for the outgoing CSV / LSAP coalition, who in many places lost quite substantially in comparison to the 2009 parliamentary, and also the 2005 local elections.  Most on the pressure appears to be on CSV, while LSAP could regain some ground in its traditional southern strongholds.
DP, while remaining strongest party in Luxembourg city and some of its suburbs, lost around 2-3% there in comparison to 2005 - not an encouraging result for an opposition party on national level.
While not apparent on the map, the Greens were the clear winner in 2011. In three two smaller towns in the southeast (Remich, Betzdorf) they virtually tied with CSV for first place, while overtaking LSAP in several other places.
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Franknburger
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« Reply #27 on: July 16, 2013, 12:05:33 PM »

Below I compare results in the 2005 local, 2009 parliamentary and 2011 local elections for some communities:

Luxembourg City:
CSV             22.2     36.3    19.1
LSAP            16.2     16.8   15.9
Green          17.4      13.1   18.5
DP               35.4     21.4   33.7
ADR              3.9       6.1     5.0
The Left         3.1      4.4      6.5
KPL               1.1      1.3      1.5
others           0.3        --        --

Esch s/Alzette
CSV             23.3     33.8    19.2
LSAP            40.5     28.2    38.5
Green          10.0       8.3    12.5
DP                7.5       8.0      7.5
ADR              6.1      7.2       3.1
The Left         8.0      7.3     10.9
KPL               4.0       3.6      5.3
others             --       3.6      2.3

Differdange (South-West)
CSV             14.8     38.0    14.3
LSAP            23.4     21.6    22.6
Green          11.3      11.7    15.2
DP               42.5     15.0    34.0
ADR              4.0       8.1      3.8
The Left         --        3.3       5.3
KPL               4.0       1.5      4.8
others             --       0.8       --

Dudelange (South)
CSV             20.4     27.8     18.3
LSAP            59.8     41.9     53.9
Green          11.6     10.2     14.8
DP                3.8       5.9       --
ADR              4.6       7.2      5.5
The Left         --        3.9       6.9
KPL               --         1.6         --
others             --       1.7       --

Ettelbruck (North)
CSV             39.5     36.3    34.6
LSAP            33.8     22.9    30.7
Green          12.3     10.4    19.9
DP               10.7     15.0    14.8
ADR              3.7       8.2       --
The Left          --       1.5        --
KPL                --        0.9       --
others            --        1.2       --

Echternach (East)
CSV             34.3     40.4    28.3
LSAP            33.9     21.0    25.4
Green            --       13.7    21.8
DP               27.5     15.3    20.5
ADR               --        6.6       --
The Left          --       2.3        --
KPL                --        0.8       --
others           4.4        --       4.1

Grevenacher (East)
CSV             29.6     38.1    37.0
LSAP            19.2     18.7    18.1
Green           14.3    11.9    19.2
DP               36.8     18.2    27.7
ADR               --        8.0       --
The Left          --       2.1        --
KPL                --        1.0       --

Mersch (Centre)
CSV             27.8     39.6    21.7
LSAP            16.2     16.4    12.4
Green           23.5    15.6    29.0
DP               32.5     17.5    37.0
ADR               --        7.3       --
The Left          --        2.5       --
KPL                --        1.0       --

Takeaways:
a.) The national CSV vote has been very much a Junckers vote. Especially local DP voters, but also quite some local Green and, in certain places, LSAP voters have on national level voted CSV. The question will be whether Juncker can maintain his appeal, or whether voter fatigue with current leadership that has become obvious in the 2011 local elections will also affect CSV nationally.

b.) Lacking the Juncker bonus, CSV junior partner LSAP will most likely continue to decline. If they manage to stabilise their vote share in their traditional south-western strongholds, they may make it past the 20% mark. However - I have my doubts, especially when looking at local-level voting trends for the Left.

c.) In theory, DP as largest opposition party should gain, but local election results suggest otherwise. If they manage to turn the election into an issue election and not just a plebiscite on Juncker, they have a substantial voter reservoir to tap into.

d.) In principle, it can only go upwards for the Greens. Unlike the German Greens, the Luxembourg Greens appear to maintain a centrist focus (ecology, civil rights, education, combing family and professional career). If they steer free from a "tax increase" discussion, they may come out around or even above 15%.

e.) The  Left should gain as well, probably getting around 5%. ADR and KPL have stable local bases to tap into, but an overaged electorate, and may both lose a bit of ground.
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Famous Mortimer
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« Reply #28 on: July 17, 2013, 02:13:21 PM »

Reading more about the spying scandal that brought on these elections.

They bugged the Grand Duke?

Why?

Was it just that the Luxembourg intelligence services really don't have anything to do so they just started bugging every single person to occupy their time?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #29 on: July 17, 2013, 05:50:53 PM »

Well, boredom can be incredibly frustrating.
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Sir John Johns
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« Reply #30 on: July 17, 2013, 10:14:27 PM »

Found some polls from last month, before the spying affair and the resignation of Juncker (source:http://www.lessentiel.lu/fr/news/luxembourg/story/13417540). No data at national level. The polls were commissioned by newspaper Tagesblatt. I can't find which is the survey company.

North
CSV 33.8% (-5.8 )
DP 23.3% (+5.1)
LSAP 15.5% (-1.9)
Déi Gréng 12.5% (+1.7)
ADR 10.5% (+0.2)
Déi Lénk 3.2% (+1.2)

Center
CSV 33.8% (-4.8 )
DP 22.9% (+3.5)
LSAP 15.5% (-2.3)
Déi Gréng 15.4% (+2.2)
ADR 5.6% (-0.7)
Déi Lénk 5.6% (+2.1)

East
CSV 36.9% (-4.6)
Déi Gréng 18.2% (+4)
DP 17.9% (+2.5)
LSAP 12.9% (-3.3)
ADR 10% (+0.5)
Déi Lénk 4% (+1.7)

South
CSV 32.2% (-3.4)
LSAP 23.2% (-4.9)
Déi Gréng 13.8% (+3.6)
DP 12.6% (+2.5)
Déi Lénk 8.2% (+4.1)
ADR 6.4% (-1.5)

Both CSV and LSAP lost ground, probably because of voters' fatigue. It should be noted however that LSAP nominated as its top candidate Étienne Schneider, the young economy minister who enjoyed a recent rise of popularity in polls. For its part, the CSV doesn't have a substitute to Juncker as Juncker's designated successor, Luc Frieden, is now accused of obtructing justice in the trial of 1980s terror bombings possibly related to Operation Gladio (notably, Luxembourg intelligence services apparently hired a private detective to investigate the supposed paedophilia of the state prosecutor dealing with the case).

While DP, The Left, and the Greens benefited from the decline of the traditional parties, ADR stagnating. I have made some little research, and the party doesn't seem to totally fit into the conservative label generally attributed to it. ADR has had a tough year. In December, one deputy (Jacques-Yves Henckes, a veteran member of the party) left the party and another, Jean Colombera (a holistic physician), threatened to do so if the president Fernand Kartheiser didn't resign.

Both opposed the shift to the right of the ADR under the leadership of Kartheiser. Henckes accused Kartheiser of providing an ultraconservative and  religious orientation to the party (Kartheiser opposed the relaxation of the abortion laws). For his part, Colombera defines himself as a left-minded politician, is a supporter of same-sex marriage and, even better, was indicted for having illegaly prescribed medical marijuana. Kartheiser was also criticized for being a government employee (he worked in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, I'm going to come to that) which contradicted the party's historical opposition to civil service.

Then Kartheiser resigned as president of the party, but Colombera left anyway because other members of ADR insulted him. After an unsuccessful attempt to join the Greens, Colombera founded a new party whose platform is full of platitudes despite being, according to Colombera, inspired by the principles of holistic medicine.

In April, the vice president of the ADR, Roy Reding, was under investigation in relation to the fraudulent sale of Hooters franchise in Germany.

And finally, last month, it was revealed that Kartheiser was a double agent during the Cold War. Even if Kartheiser claimed he misled the Russians, being a former spy will probably not help him to be reelected.

Who said Luxembourg is a boring country ?

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minionofmidas
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« Reply #31 on: July 18, 2013, 10:18:28 AM »

Reading more about the spying scandal that brought on these elections.

They bugged the Grand Duke?

Why?

Was it just that the Luxembourg intelligence services really don't have anything to do so they just started bugging every single person to occupy their time?
What makes you think there is a western world secret service that has done anything else with the sixtillions shoved down their throats since 9/11?
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Franknburger
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« Reply #32 on: July 18, 2013, 04:36:48 PM »

Found some polls from last month, before the spying affair and the resignation of Juncker (source:http://www.lessentiel.lu/fr/news/luxembourg/story/13417540). No data at national level. The polls were commissioned by newspaper Tagesblatt. I can't find which is the survey company.

Thanks for the data- The only poll I found was an even older one (April) done by TNS, which focused on approval of individual politicians and general trust in parties, without explicitly asking the "Whom would you vote for" question. But we are probably going to see a number of real election polls soon ..

National figures may be interpolated from the regional data by applying the overall distribution of eligible voters, which in 2009 was something like 40% South, 28% Centre, 18% North and 14% East. That should yield something like

CSV        33.5  (-4.5)
LSAP       18     (-2.5)
DP          18      (+3)
Greens    14.5  (+3)
ADR         7.5  (-0.5)
Left          6.0  (+2.5)
Others      2.0  (+/-0)

I haven't dug into the details of Luxembourg's apportionment system so far. It seems to be PR, but calculated separately for each region, so their 4% in the South gained The Left one seat (out of 23) there, but no seats in the other three districts. Such a system should give the larger parties (of which there currently is only one, namely CSV) some advantage, especially in the smaller regions (North & East).
In any case, the above figures suggest that the new government will again be CSV-lead, with the only question being whether LSAP or DP will act as junior partner. There might be a small chance of LSAP, DP and Greens forming an anti-CSV block, but, given Juncker's popularity, that should come close to committing political suicide ...
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Leftbehind
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« Reply #33 on: July 29, 2013, 08:03:07 PM »

Some positive trends for Déi Lénk, there.
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Sir John Johns
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« Reply #34 on: September 20, 2013, 10:13:56 PM »

PolitMonitor about upcoming elections

Preferred coalition

CSV-LSAP 29%
LSAP-DP-Déi Gréng 22%
CSV-DP 16%
CSV-Déi Gréng 7%
other 10%
no opinion 16%

Opinion about a LSAP-DP-Déi Gréng coalition:
Good 40%
Bad 51%
no opinion 9%

Preferred prime minister:
Jean-Claude Junker (CSV) 47%
Xavier Bettel (DP) 19%
Étienne Schneider (LSAP) 14%
François Bausch (Déi Gréng) 3%
Charles Goerens (DP) 1%
Luc Frieden (CSV) 1%
no answer 10%

Results in 2009 are given in the joint document, but 18% are missing.

Jean-Claude Juncker (CSV): 68%
Jean Asselborn (LSAP) 8%
Claude Meisch (DP) 6%
Luc Frieden (CSV) 4%
François Bausch (Déi Gréng) 2%

Preferred and least preferred parties

Surveyed were given six votes, three to rank the parties they would like to see stronger after the elections and three to rank the parties they would like to see weaker.

Parties you want stronger (1st vote, then addition of the three votes)
CSV 30% (43%)
DP 19% (50%)
LSAP 19% (44%)
Déi Gréng 16% (50%)
Déi Lénk 4% (19%)
ADR 3% (10%)
Piratepartei 3% (10%)
KPL 1% (4%)
PID 1% (3%)

Parties you want weaker:

CSV 32% (41%)
ADR 15% (41%)
LSAP 12% (26%)
KPL 9% (29%)
Déi Gréng 7% (20%)
Piratepartei 6% (23%)
DP 6% (16%)
PID 3% (16%)
Déi Lénk 2% (18%)

PolitMonitor had also previously polled about voters' confidences in the parties and institutions. (variations compared to April 2013)

Government 51% (-4)
Opposition 44% (+6)
Trade Unions 46% (+3)
Employers 37% (-5)
Political parties 45% (+5)

Most-trusted party (the article doesn't give all variations compared to April 2013)
CSV: 33% (+1)
LSAP: 15% (+3)
DP: 15% (+1)
Déi Gréng 10%
Déi Lénk 4%
ADR 1%
KPL 1%
Piratepartei 1%
none 20% (-6)

Some statistics on each parties' candidates

Average age
KPL: 50
ADR: 48
CSV: 47
Déi Gréng: 47
LSAP: 45
DP: 44
PID: 41
Déi Lénk: 40
Piratepartei: 30

gender parity (M/W)
Déi Gréng: 31/29
Déi Lénk: 32/28
PID: 35/25
ADR: 38/22
KPL: 40/20
CSV: 41/19
DP: 45/15
LSAP: 45/15
Piraten Partei: 51/9

Some note on the two new parties running this year:

Piratepartei

The Pirate Party runs under the slogan "Reboot Luxembourg!". Beside of the traditional advocacy of the protection of personal data (including keeping banking secrecy), it proposes to introduce a basic income of 800€ per month and to abolish transport pass (transport would be rather financed by taxes). Otherwise, it defends same-sex marriage, legalization of marijuana, abolition of mandatory voting, lowering the voting age to 16, granting foreigner residents the right to vote, and the promotion of Luxembourgish language and its enshrinement in the constitution.

They suffered a setback when it was revealed that one of their candidate led a far-right party in the 1980s. The Pirates said that they are not used to investigate the past of their candidates but nonetheless withdraw the candidate and expelled him from the party. Déi Gréng criticized heavily the Pirates for the far-right candidate affair and also for changing the composition of the candidate lists without consulting the party members. Piratepartei finances itself by crowdfunding and is also strongly helped by its German counterpart.

Partei fir Integral Demokratie
The Party for Integral Democracy (PID) is the party formed by Jean Colombera, the marijuana-prescriber homeopath (he says himself he is an "integral physician" as he practices both conventional and homeopathic medicines) who left the ADR last year. Quite surprisingly, it managed to field candidates in every district, only few weeks after its establishment. Colombera is de facto the top leader and, afaik, the only PID candidate with political experience.

I would have hard time to assign an ideology to the PID, as its platform is pretty empty and as Colombera's discourse is a mix of vague platitudes and naive statements that you would rather hear from a 13-year old teenager rather than from someone who is a deputy since 1999. PID described itself as the "party of the common sense" and Colombera pretends to apply the principles of medicine to the policy-making in order to, according his own words, "find the cause of the illness rather than only treating the symptoms". He advocates "integral democracy" which, always according to his own words, means that deputies have to listen to the people and explore the best law to propose.

PID proposes only few concrete measures, which are partly inspired by the Swiss political system. For example, it wants to facilitate the organization of referendums and distribute the ministerial portfolios between parties proportionally to their electoral results. It's however pretty unclear how the latter would work as Colombera also wishes the political parties to disappear and complained about having to create a party to enter "the system" (described as "rotten" by Colombera). Colombera is also proud to not having include jurists on the PID's lists as "they are many in the House, but there is not a single maid nor a single worker". A son of Italian immigrants, Colombera proposes to extend vote to all residents in Luxembourg. Economically, the PID seems to be quite right-wing as Colombera denounces the bureaucracy and wanted five-year programmes for training students according to the needs of the economy rather than letting them pursue studies without employment prospects.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #35 on: October 20, 2013, 08:37:45 AM »

The polls are now closed. Results here:

http://www.elections.public.lu/fr/index.html
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #36 on: October 20, 2013, 08:57:59 AM »
« Edited: October 20, 2013, 09:00:27 AM by Minion of Midas »

It seems that a list vote gives exactly one vote to each candidate on the list... if you change your ballot to vote for candidates from multiple lists, how many votes maximum can you give to a single candidate?

EDIT: Found it on the website. The answer is two.
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Hifly
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« Reply #37 on: October 20, 2013, 09:04:06 AM »

The LSAP seems to be in a bit of trouble if the swings from the first results hold up across the country...
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #38 on: October 20, 2013, 09:21:20 AM »

That 2009 comparison figure is the whole municipality result (or if you click it at constituency level, the whole constituency result), so no worthwhile info on swings until any municipality is wholly in. Sad
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Hifly
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« Reply #39 on: October 20, 2013, 09:26:15 AM »

How annoying.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #40 on: October 20, 2013, 10:25:14 AM »
« Edited: October 20, 2013, 10:26:58 AM by Minion of Midas »

And we have a full result. (Tiny municipality alert!)

Waldbredimus, in the east.

CSV 41.2 (-4.9, and that's certainly not supported by partial results from elsewhere)
DP 17.8 (+7.3, ditto)
Greens 14.6 (-1.1)
LSAP 10.9 (-2.5)
ARD 6.8 (-2.9)
dei Lenk 3.8 (+0.8, these latter three look like they might hold all over)

EDIT: And another one, Remich. Just as tiny and in the same part of the country... and an even bigger CSV loss (35.2, -9.1), with LSAP as well as DP gaining.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #41 on: October 20, 2013, 11:00:07 AM »

Yeah, CSV definitely is losing quite a bit of votes, without their dominant party status getting into any kind of doubt of course.
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Sir John Johns
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« Reply #42 on: October 20, 2013, 12:22:09 PM »

Number of seats with provisional results
CSV: 23 (-3)
LSAP: 13 (nc)
DP: 13 (+4)
Déi Gréng: 6 (-1)
ADR: 2 (-2)
Déi Lénk: 3 (+2)

Theorical majority for a LSAP-DP-Déi Gréng coalition. CSV-DP is also possible as CSV-LSAP, but this latter is probably politically excluded. On a related note, Déi Lénk had previously stated that it is opposed to a LSAP-DP-Déi Gréng government which would be "worst" than the outgoing CSV-LSAP government.

ADR losing ground despite campaigning against extending vote rights for foreigner residents.

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« Reply #43 on: October 20, 2013, 12:51:44 PM »

Under pure proportional, the Pirates and Communists would have gained seats in the South. Alas, I think there is a 4% threshold within the constituencies.
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« Reply #44 on: October 20, 2013, 01:12:59 PM »

Disappointing Green result. Stupid Pirates.
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Leftbehind
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« Reply #45 on: October 20, 2013, 02:57:41 PM »

Under pure proportional, the Pirates and Communists would have gained seats in the South. Alas, I think there is a 4% threshold within the constituencies.

So who ended up getting their seats?
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Sir John Johns
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« Reply #46 on: October 20, 2013, 04:17:49 PM »

Results with only a municipality (Contern) and a one poll station in Esch-sur-Alzette missing:

CSV: 33.63% (-4,41%) 23 seats (-3)
LSAP: 20.31% (-1,25%) 13 seats (nc)
DP: 18.22% (+3,24%) 13 seats (+4)
Déi Gréng: 10.13% (-1,58%) 6 seats (-1)
ADR: 6.67% (-1,46%) 3 seats (-1)
Déi Lénk: 4.94% (+1,65%) 2 seats (+1)
Piratepartei: 2.94% (+2.94%)
KPL: 1.64% (+0.17%)
PID: 1.51% (+1.51)
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MaxQue
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Canada


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« Reply #47 on: October 20, 2013, 11:15:27 PM »

In 2009, CSV won all communes but 4 (Wiltz (North) and Rumelange, Kayl and Dudelange (all in South), won by the LSAP.

In 2013, LSAP won 3 communes (Wiltz (North) and Rumelange and Dudelange (both in South)) and DP won 4 (Mondorf-les-Bains (East) and Scheiren, Boulaide and Troisvierges (all in North)). CSV won all the other ones.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

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« Reply #48 on: October 21, 2013, 04:56:19 AM »

Turnout: 90.0% (down from 90.8% in the last election)
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minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
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India


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« Reply #49 on: October 21, 2013, 09:53:06 AM »

Turnout: 90.0% (down from 90.8% in the last election)
Voting in Luxembourg is compulsory... and when you request a postal ballot, unless you're 75 or over, you need to give them a good reason and some proof of it.
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