Hawaii in 2004

[RedSLC]

As we all know, Obama won Hawaii, the state of his birth in massive landslides in both 2008 and 2012. In fact, in 2012, he won all but 2 precincts in the entire state.

Yet, less than a decade ago, not only did Bush come within 10 points of winning the state (Though barely), he actually came within a couple of points of winning the state's largest county, Honolulu County!

Does anyone have any explanation of how he was able to achieve this? Precinct maps, if they can be made, would be helpful, too.

EDIT: I am also aware that the state's then-republican Governor, Linda Lingle, tried to help Bush with the state, but I doubt that alone would make something like this happen.

[TDAS04]

Hawaii has a strong pro-incumbent streak.

[ElectionsGuy]

It is said that Hawaii has a "special thing" for Obama. Specifically Honolulu County votes much more democratic for Obama then any other county used to. In fact the more rural parts of the state are much more liberal. I think 2004 was just a regular year with an incumbent, and as TDAS04 said, Hawaii has an incumbent streak.

[Mr. Reactionary]

I don't have a map, but I do know that VP Cheney went to campaign in Hawaii right before the election. That could have swung a few voters. I have a link to a USA Today article on the campaign stop but I'm not allowed to post it or something. 

[sg0508]

9/11 and the military support.  In addition, as others have said, HI tends not to throw incumbents out that easily

[barfbag]

Well without Obama, Hawaii would be in the likely Democratic column with Connecticut, California, and Illinois. However, it's been traditionally blue and with a candidate from the Aloha state, Obama did all the better. If I'm correct it was something like 53-47 for Kerry and expected to be closer. It won't go anywhere for the Democrats. Another interesting thing about Hawaii in 2004 is that Dick Cheney became the first person on the ticket since Nixon in 1972 to campaign there.

[hopper]

This is when the GOP was actually interested in winning minority votes(example: Hawaiians.)

[barfbag]

This is when the GOP was actually interested in winning minority votes(example: Hawaiians.)

We've never done well with minorities in the last 60 years or Hawaii for that matter.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Actually, whites are the most Democratic voting bloc in Hawaii (other than the fairly miniscule black and Latino communities, I assume)

[tpfkaw]

Hawaii has a very strong pro-incumbent bias; it has never trended against an incumbent, and only swung (slightly) against one in 2012 and 1980.  Then there's the whole Senator-for-Life deal.  Also, Cheney made a surprise visit to the state shortly before the election that got quite a bit of favorable news coverage both locally and nationally - Bush might well have won it or at least made it close if he had visited himself.

[ElectionsGuy]

Actually, whites are the most Democratic voting bloc in Hawaii (other than the fairly miniscule black and Latino communities, I assume)

I though the "Other" races or Native Hawaiians were in the 80's for Obama, while Asians were at 68% and White at 70%. Or did they swing in 2012? This is according to the 2008 exit poll:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#HIP00p1

[tpfkaw]

Actually, whites are the most Democratic voting bloc in Hawaii (other than the fairly miniscule black and Latino communities, I assume)

I though the "Other" races or Native Hawaiians were in the 80's for Obama, while Asians were at 68% and White at 70%. Or did they swing in 2012? This is according to the 2008 exit poll:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#HIP00p1

IIRC "other" did vote more R than whites in '04.  They're the most pro-incumbent group, I believe.

[ElectionsGuy]

Actually, whites are the most Democratic voting bloc in Hawaii (other than the fairly miniscule black and Latino communities, I assume)

I though the "Other" races or Native Hawaiians were in the 80's for Obama, while Asians were at 68% and White at 70%. Or did they swing in 2012? This is according to the 2008 exit poll:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#HIP00p1

IIRC "other" did vote more R than whites in '04.  They're the most pro-incumbent group, I believe.

You're right, that's a huge swing for Native Hawaiians. Asians also swung pretty heavy, whites still swung good towards Obama but not as much. I should've looked at this exit poll first

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/HI/P/00/epolls.0.html

[barfbag]

It would be so cool to see Hawaii as a swing-state. Imagine the presidential candidates going there and giving speeches and holding rallies by the beaches and such. It hasn't happened in my lifetime yet.

It's unlikely Hawaii will turn anytime soon. They recently elected a Hindu congresswoman, which is something you wouldn't see in a Republican district. I know Jindal is an Indian, but he had to convert to Christianity and change his ethnic name to stand a chance.

The GOP needs to get away from it's all-white, all-Christian image.

As for the thread, OP -- Bush did well here because of the pro-incumbency feelings among Hawaii voters. Plus, it was just an overall good year for the GOP. With Hawaii's small electorate, a few swing voters is enough to bring it close.

We do need to become a bigger umbrella party, but I don't think Hawaii is the place to start. How about somewhere battleground like Nevada or Colorado?

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

Hawaii also has an extremely high elasticity-the 4th highest in the nation, and the highest score outside of New England, with a 1.24. That could also be a factor.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Polls suggested Hawaii was within reach for Bush in 2004, and Dick Cheney made a visit there (the first member of a major party ticket to visit the state since Nixon in 1960).  That might have helped them there.

[minionofmidas]

Asians. And quite a bit of military. This is where Republicans have collapsed vis-a-vis 2004 (although in regard to the military, 2004 is the unusual year.)

[PolitiJunkie]

• Pro-Incumbency Streak of Hawaii
• Senator-for-Life Tendency in Hawaii
• Military Presence and post-9/11 Paranoia
• Reasonably popular Republican Governor campaigning for Bush
• Dick Cheney's surprise visit to Hawaii which clearly made the voters feel highly valued
• High elasticity and ability to swing heavily given changes in the national mood
• Unusually strong performance among Asians and "Other" non-white groups in Hawaii

[barfbag]

• Pro-Incumbency Streak of Hawaii
• Senator-for-Life Tendency in Hawaii
• Military Presence and post-9/11 Paranoia
• Reasonably popular Republican Governor campaigning for Bush
• Dick Cheney's surprise visit to Hawaii which clearly made the voters feel highly valued
• High elasticity and ability to swing heavily given changes in the national mood
• Unusually strong performance among Asians and "Other" non-white groups in Hawaii

They do have a strong showing for incumbents. Nixon and Reagan won despite being Republican and the state was even center-right in 1972. I'm not sure about 1984. Obama's showing in Hawaii really isn't indicative due to the astronomical amount he won by anyways. Even Bush only lost about 54-46. Carter won Hawaii when it was only light blue even though he lost by a huge margin in 1980. I wouldn't use 1964 data unless it was with a grain of salt simply because it was the very first time Hawaii saw an incumbent and Johnson's margin of victory was enough to set data aside.

[Badger]

Precinct maps, anyone? I've always been interested in knowing where GOP strength is in the state, particularly Ohau.

The 04 Pres race would be as good an example as any.

[old timey villain]

Ya know, strangely enough I always heard that both parties agreed on admitting both Alaska and Hawaii to the union assuming that Hawaii would vote Republican while Alaska would vote Democratic. So it was seen as sort as a fair deal in elections.

It didn't work out the way they'd hoped but the two states do vote for different parties!

[minionofmidas]

Precinct maps, anyone? I've always been interested in knowing where GOP strength is in the state, particularly Ohau.

The 04 Pres race would be as good an example as any.

http://hawaii.gov/elections/maps/

You're welcome to make us some. Most of the surface of O'ahu would be (Atlas) blue for 2004 IIRC.

[barfbag]

Do you guys think Hawaii could go back to being light blue without Obama on the ticket? I tend to doubt it.

[stretch827]

Bush was a little bit straighter in his positions, even though he was a reckless president. Kerry was a flip-flopper.

[barfbag]

Bush was a little bit straighter in his positions, even though he was a reckless president. Kerry was a flip-flopper.

In an election, it's all about image and perception. The only real way to compare would be if both were president and we'll never have that luxury.