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  2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderators: Torie, Senator ON Progressive)
  Final 2012 Predictions
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Author Topic: Final 2012 Predictions  (Read 11313 times)
barfbag
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« on: July 15, 2013, 11:07:46 pm »

Alabama 63-37
Alaska 61-37
Arizona 52-47
Arkansas 64-34
California 41-57
Colorado 50-49
Connecticut 48-52
Delaware 42-58
Florida 50-48
Georgia 59-40
Hawaii 35-65
Idaho 65-33
Illinois 41-57
Indiana 54-44
Iowa 53-47
Kansas 60-39
Kentucky 57-41
Louisiana 60-38
Maine 43-57
Maryland 37-62
Massachusetts 42-57
Michigan 46-52
Minnesota 50-50
Mississippi 60-39
Missouri 56-42
Montana 55-44
Nebraska 57-42
Nevada 49-50
New Hampshire 56-43
New Jersey 41-57
New Mexico 43-55
New York 34-64
North Carolina 50-50
North Dakota 58-42
Ohio 50-49
Oklahoma 63-35
Oregon 44-54
Pennsylvania 46-52
Rhode Island 40-60
South Carolina 59-41
South Dakota 54-44
Tennessee 54-44
Texas 54-45
Utah 72-26
Vermont 38-62
Virginia 51-49
Washington 46-53
West Virginia 62-37
Wisconsin 50-50
Wyoming 68-30



Go ahead and discuss.
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JRP1994
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« Reply #1 on: July 15, 2013, 11:17:00 pm »

I played 2012 conservatively and didn't project a winner in Florida. I wasn't extremely surprised when it went to Obama, though it wasn't a clear call. :

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barfbag
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« Reply #2 on: July 15, 2013, 11:26:23 pm »

I played 2012 conservatively and didn't project a winner in Florida. I wasn't extremely surprised when it went to Obama, though it wasn't a clear call. :



Congratulations, I missed 8 states and you got a perfect pretty much. Either way Florida was close enough to say you picked the right winner.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #3 on: July 16, 2013, 02:15:06 am »

Prediction:





Actual:




I much over predicted the race for Romney with a narrow win for him, this was back when the national polls just barely favored Obama. I thought he would win Florida and North Carolina comfortably, Ohio and Virginia would be 2-3 point wins, and Colorado and Nevada would be nail bitters with Colorado just slightly more conservative. That turned out not to be the case on election day Sad
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barfbag
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« Reply #4 on: July 16, 2013, 02:33:16 am »

I was all about Romney leading up to the election and have no idea what happened to the evangelical conservatives on election day. I think Rick Santorum would've been a helpful running mate with hindsight.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #5 on: July 16, 2013, 12:24:00 pm »

I pretty much just went with Nate Silvers projections and of course he was right. I was off on few of the percentages, but my score was still 98/112. 


https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2012/pred.php?action=indpred&memb_id=13799

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barfbag
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« Reply #6 on: July 16, 2013, 04:09:11 pm »

If you average all of the polls, then you could come pretty close each time. I've never been as far off as 2012. In 2004 I had Bush winning New Jersey and in 2008 I had Obama winning Missouri and North Dakota. However, in 2012, I had Romney winning New Hampshire, Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Colorado.
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HagridOfTheDeep
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« Reply #7 on: July 16, 2013, 05:54:25 pm »

Take the real map and give Florida and Colorado to Romney. Colorado was probably stupid of me, but I was optimistic.

As for Florida... I am still very shocked and disappointed that Romney could not at least win the Sunshine State.
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Anton Kreitzer
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« Reply #8 on: July 16, 2013, 06:36:28 pm »

Take the real map and give Florida and Colorado to Romney. Colorado was probably stupid of me, but I was optimistic.

As for Florida... I am still very shocked and disappointed that Romney could not at least win the Sunshine State.

Same as Hagrid, except swap Colorado for Virginia.
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SawxDem
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« Reply #9 on: July 16, 2013, 09:25:41 pm »

The actual map minus Florida.
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barfbag
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« Reply #10 on: July 17, 2013, 11:02:59 pm »

What did you all predict the popular vote to be?
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #11 on: July 17, 2013, 11:40:44 pm »

What did you all predict the popular vote to be?

50-49 Romney, pretty stupid of me to trust Gallup...
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Clarko95
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« Reply #12 on: July 17, 2013, 11:50:53 pm »


^^This. With Obama getting 50% or just a bit under 50% PV and Romney 48-49%. Not too bad.
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« Reply #13 on: July 21, 2013, 08:32:50 am »



Note that it's another "usual map minus Florida", a lot of the non-swing-state shades are off.
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TarHeelDem
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« Reply #14 on: July 28, 2013, 01:40:23 pm »

I only missed Florida - was trying to be cautious. Very interested to see where the state goes in 2016.
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barfbag
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« Reply #15 on: July 28, 2013, 05:31:57 pm »

I only missed Florida - was trying to be cautious. Very interested to see where the state goes in 2016.

It will most likely vote for the winning candidate unless the election is extremely close. If it's a toss up it will vote Republican.
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Orser67
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« Reply #16 on: July 29, 2013, 12:37:18 am »

The actual map except that I had North Carolina going D. I was just a tick too optimistic.
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Antonio V
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« Reply #17 on: July 29, 2013, 06:13:57 am »

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Likely Voter
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« Reply #18 on: July 29, 2013, 06:51:17 pm »

If you average all of the polls, then you could come pretty close each time. I've never been as far off as 2012. In 2004 I had Bush winning New Jersey and in 2008 I had Obama winning Missouri and North Dakota. However, in 2012, I had Romney winning New Hampshire, Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Colorado.

Um what? Every polling average had Obama consistently ahead in every one of those states except maybe Florida and he had a national lead except for a few weeks after the first debate (but even then he never lost his EV lead).

I was all about Romney leading up to the election and have no idea what happened to the evangelical conservatives on election day. I think Rick Santorum would've been a helpful running mate with hindsight.

um what again? In 2004 when the last Republican won White Evangelicals made up 23% of the vote and Bush won them 78/21. In 2008 the number was up to 26% and McCain carried them 74/24. In 2012 the number stayed the same at 26% but Romney carried them by same margin as Bush (78/21). So Romney had more White Evangelical votes than either Bush or McCain which is impressive (especially as the white vote was decreasing overall).

Conservative vote share was up so Romney also had more of them then either McCain or Bush.

You seem to live in a counter-factual world.


The surprises for me on election day were that Romney did better in PA and OH than I had thought he would and Obama carried FL (i had guessed Romney would carry it narrowly). But
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Liberalrocks
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« Reply #19 on: July 31, 2013, 02:50:24 pm »

I supported Obama but played my predictions on the conservative side because I think many polls/pundits didnt think he could get an enthusiastic turn out coordinated. With the exception of the brilliant Nate Silver.

Based on articles and what I perceived to be GOP voter supression tactics I thought Florida would go to Mitt Romney so I clearly had that state wrong and was suprised to see an Obama win there.

Virginia I expected to be decided by a few thousand votes much closer then the actual vote but in the end I did predict Obama would pull it out.

All other states I got right but was suprised a few were not closer Obama margins. I only got one state wrong. The national popular vote suprised me I thought Obama would only win by a 1pt or 2 and not over 50%. The icing on the cake was Mitt Romney ending up with "47%".
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barfbag
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« Reply #20 on: July 31, 2013, 03:32:02 pm »

If you average all of the polls, then you could come pretty close each time. I've never been as far off as 2012. In 2004 I had Bush winning New Jersey and in 2008 I had Obama winning Missouri and North Dakota. However, in 2012, I had Romney winning New Hampshire, Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Colorado.

Um what? Every polling average had Obama consistently ahead in every one of those states except maybe Florida and he had a national lead except for a few weeks after the first debate (but even then he never lost his EV lead).

I was all about Romney leading up to the election and have no idea what happened to the evangelical conservatives on election day. I think Rick Santorum would've been a helpful running mate with hindsight.

um what again? In 2004 when the last Republican won White Evangelicals made up 23% of the vote and Bush won them 78/21. In 2008 the number was up to 26% and McCain carried them 74/24. In 2012 the number stayed the same at 26% but Romney carried them by same margin as Bush (78/21). So Romney had more White Evangelical votes than either Bush or McCain which is impressive (especially as the white vote was decreasing overall).

Conservative vote share was up so Romney also had more of them then either McCain or Bush.

You seem to live in a counter-factual world.


The surprises for me on election day were that Romney did better in PA and OH than I had thought he would and Obama carried FL (i had guessed Romney would carry it narrowly). But

Obama pulled out of FL with a few weeks to go assuming the state would go to Romney and left VA for a little bit until the last few days before the election. This was a huge sign of Romney having the upper hand. I didn't think it was possible for Obama to win when he didn't have Bush to blame things on.
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ProudNewEnglander
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« Reply #21 on: July 31, 2013, 08:29:51 pm »

If you average all of the polls, then you could come pretty close each time. I've never been as far off as 2012. In 2004 I had Bush winning New Jersey and in 2008 I had Obama winning Missouri and North Dakota. However, in 2012, I had Romney winning New Hampshire, Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Colorado.

Um what? Every polling average had Obama consistently ahead in every one of those states except maybe Florida and he had a national lead except for a few weeks after the first debate (but even then he never lost his EV lead).

I was all about Romney leading up to the election and have no idea what happened to the evangelical conservatives on election day. I think Rick Santorum would've been a helpful running mate with hindsight.

um what again? In 2004 when the last Republican won White Evangelicals made up 23% of the vote and Bush won them 78/21. In 2008 the number was up to 26% and McCain carried them 74/24. In 2012 the number stayed the same at 26% but Romney carried them by same margin as Bush (78/21). So Romney had more White Evangelical votes than either Bush or McCain which is impressive (especially as the white vote was decreasing overall).

Conservative vote share was up so Romney also had more of them then either McCain or Bush.

You seem to live in a counter-factual world.


The surprises for me on election day were that Romney did better in PA and OH than I had thought he would and Obama carried FL (i had guessed Romney would carry it narrowly). But

Obama pulled out of FL with a few weeks to go assuming the state would go to Romney and left VA for a little bit until the last few days before the election. This was a huge sign of Romney having the upper hand. I didn't think it was possible for Obama to win when he didn't have Bush to blame things on.

Excuse me?

This is completely false. Obama did not pull out of Florida. In fact, in the last few weeks of the campaign, Obama slowly but surely gained ground there. Look at Nate Silver's graphs to see for yourself.

Obama never pulled out of Virginia either. I have no clue where you are getting these ridiculous statements. Obama was always favored in Virginia, and there really wasn't much doubt that Obama would win it. Hence, your penultimate statement is also false, as Romney never had the upper hand in the campaign. At the lowest points, it was 50-50, but Obama was almost always favored, and sometimes significantly. Which pollsters do you pay attention to, Rasmussen and Gravis?

While your final statement is one of opinion, it demonstrates a stunning lack of understanding of how strong the Obama Campaign was. The Obama Campaign hugely outclassed the Romney Campaign in pretty much every way, from polling to commercials to technology to messaging. If the economy was better (and Obama hadn't messed up in the first debate), then Obama would have destroyed Romney in a landslide.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #22 on: August 01, 2013, 12:23:44 am »

barfbag I am curious, where do you get all your 'facts' about tied polls, conservatives and evangelicals not showing up and Obama pulling out of FL? Are you from a mirror universe or something?
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barfbag
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« Reply #23 on: August 01, 2013, 12:34:21 am »

barfbag I am curious, where do you get all your 'facts' about tied polls, conservatives and evangelicals not showing up and Obama pulling out of FL? Are you from a mirror universe or something?

Yes
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MATTROSE94
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« Reply #24 on: September 27, 2013, 11:56:39 am »

Mine went like this:
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