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  strange Miami Dade 2012
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jman123
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« on: July 16, 2013, 09:40:07 pm »

I don't understand why Miami Dade swung to Obama when Romney won the Cuban areas of the county like Hialeah, The Western Panhandle of the city Miami, and most of Little Havana. Where did this wing come from since I studied the county precinct results and Romney easily got the Cubans.   

   I question whether there was a Cuban swing to Obama in the first place.  Please explain it to me.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1 on: July 16, 2013, 09:43:10 pm »

Most exit polls show that Obama won the Cuban vote in FL.
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #2 on: July 17, 2013, 04:27:34 am »

I don't understand why Miami Dade swung to Obama when Romney won (...) Hialeah
...narrowly, as opposed to past 2:1 margins.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #3 on: July 17, 2013, 10:09:38 am »

Heavily minority areas trended Obama's way.  Miami Dade County has a Hispanic majority, and Anglo whites are also outnumbered by blacks.  The Hispanic vote in Florida continues to become more and more Democratic.
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Snowstalker's Last Stand
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« Reply #4 on: July 17, 2013, 11:21:42 am »

Obama held strong margins with Haitians, Puerto Ricans, Colombians, etc., while getting a big swing his way with Cubans thanks to the fact that the first Cuban wave (businessmen/professionals who left right after the Revolution) are literally dying off while younger Cubans are more Democratic-leaning. "Self-deportation" certainly cost Romney as well.
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barfbag
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« Reply #5 on: July 17, 2013, 11:27:05 am »

What was the change in the white vote for Miami-Dade County?
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Sol
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« Reply #6 on: July 17, 2013, 12:28:49 pm »

What was the change in the white vote for Miami-Dade County?
I suspect it swung Romney, although I believe Miami-Dade whites are pretty democratic anyway.
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barfbag
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« Reply #7 on: July 17, 2013, 12:36:35 pm »
« Edited: July 17, 2013, 12:41:02 pm by barfbag »

What was the change in the white vote for Miami-Dade County?
I suspect it swung Romney, although I believe Miami-Dade whites are pretty democratic anyway.

I know they are. Romney must not have won the Cuban vote by as much as prior Republicans or the white vote was more liberal than expected. Or voter fraud?
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memphis
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« Reply #8 on: July 17, 2013, 12:48:25 pm »

Miami-Dade County is only 16% non-Hispanic white. I know they make up a larger % of the electorate, but there still aren't that many of them.
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Sol
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« Reply #9 on: July 17, 2013, 01:04:50 pm »

Yeah, It's pretty certain that Miami-Dade cuban had a big D swing. There similar swings among Vietnamese, I believe.
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Sbane
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« Reply #10 on: July 17, 2013, 01:27:25 pm »
« Edited: July 17, 2013, 01:33:11 pm by Senator Sbane »

If you look at precinct results from 2008, you will see that Obama won the cuban areas 2:1. Most of the western areas of the county, including Hialeah, voted like that. I haven't see precinct results from 2012 but I would suspect they are much closer now. It makes sense that Romney still won those areas but nowhere near a 2:1 margin. That, along with a heavy black vote, explains the swing in Dade County. Also, as it has been pointed out earlier, the Vietnamese had a similar swing to Obama. Republicans really screwed up with minorities who actually used to vote for them. Good job guys!

And no it's not voter fraud, bulimia bag.
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Devils30
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« Reply #11 on: July 17, 2013, 03:27:56 pm »

I saw somewhere that Romney won 53% in Hialeah, which looks okay for the GOP until you use Dave's app and see McCain won 63% there in 2008. Dade did not have a uniform swing, areas east of I-95 stayed the same as 2008 while places west improved for Obama by as much as 20-30 points in places.
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #12 on: July 18, 2013, 10:12:52 am »

places west improved for Obama by as much as 20-30 points in places.
Is that towards the Southwest? The population there is more Colombian, Venezuelan etc than Cuban (though turnout is abysmal and probably much more Cuban than the overall population).
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hopper
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« Reply #13 on: July 18, 2013, 12:34:49 pm »

Obama held strong margins with Haitians, Puerto Ricans, Colombians, etc., while getting a big swing his way with Cubans thanks to the fact that the first Cuban wave (businessmen/professionals who left right after the Revolution) are literally dying off while younger Cubans are more Democratic-leaning. "Self-deportation" certainly cost Romney as well.
I don't if the "self-deportation" really cost Romney that bad in Miami-Dade since the Cubans that live there have been there for decades. Self-deportation did cost him Colorado and Nevada from being competitive than it was.

One thing the Republicans are gonna have to get used to is the Asians and the Cubans that are Generation Y members  now didn't grow up under dictatorship's and are more liberal than their parents.
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Non Swing Voter
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« Reply #14 on: August 09, 2013, 06:17:59 pm »

Anecdotally I think there were a few factors here, even assuming those areas didn't trend democrat... though I believe they did...

1) The Cuban population has spread out a bit in recent years, especially young Cubans, who were more likely to vote for Obama in the first place.

2) The white population in Miami is definitely getting more liberal.  The transplant communities really do represent the vast majority of voters now. 

3) Definitely a much bigger concentration of gays too.  Miami has a huge gay population that probably has grown in recent years.  Obama came out for gay marriage before the election.  I have to imagine he swamped Romney in a lot of precincts and that turnout was bigger.

4) Even in Miami, the Hispanic population is changing... a lot more non-Cuban Hispanics.
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old timey villain
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« Reply #15 on: August 13, 2013, 05:05:24 pm »

What was the change in the white vote for Miami-Dade County?

It depends on what you'd consider white in Miami. Miami Dade is majority white if you include white Hispanics and that white vote swung towards Obama. The Non Hispanic white vote is a lot smaller and honestly I don't know how it might have swung.
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Flake
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« Reply #16 on: September 26, 2013, 06:23:29 pm »

What was the change in the white vote for Miami-Dade County?

It depends on what you'd consider white in Miami. Miami Dade is majority white if you include white Hispanics and that white vote swung towards Obama. The Non Hispanic white vote is a lot smaller and honestly I don't know how it might have swung.

Now, let's look at the national trend and the Florida trend, overall whites voted more for Romney, blacks stayed about the same, and hispanics voted more for Obama. If you look at Dade County, you can see that it swung to Obama more so than last time. Considering the miniscule white population, only one in five in the county are white, and considering that about half of the county is hispanic white, and the fact that people in the county are kind of segregated (http://demographics.coopercenter.org/DotMap/index.html) then you can imagine the (more liberal) white vote going to the right, while all other groups trended towards the Democrats.
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barfbag
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« Reply #17 on: September 26, 2013, 09:03:33 pm »

What was the change in the white vote for Miami-Dade County?

It depends on what you'd consider white in Miami. Miami Dade is majority white if you include white Hispanics and that white vote swung towards Obama. The Non Hispanic white vote is a lot smaller and honestly I don't know how it might have swung.

Now, let's look at the national trend and the Florida trend, overall whites voted more for Romney, blacks stayed about the same, and hispanics voted more for Obama. If you look at Dade County, you can see that it swung to Obama more so than last time. Considering the miniscule white population, only one in five in the county are white, and considering that about half of the county is hispanic white, and the fact that people in the county are kind of segregated (http://demographics.coopercenter.org/DotMap/index.html) then you can imagine the (more liberal) white vote going to the right, while all other groups trended towards the Democrats.

What about it though?
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Non Swing Voter
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« Reply #18 on: October 27, 2013, 08:18:16 pm »

What was the change in the white vote for Miami-Dade County?

It depends on what you'd consider white in Miami. Miami Dade is majority white if you include white Hispanics and that white vote swung towards Obama. The Non Hispanic white vote is a lot smaller and honestly I don't know how it might have swung.

Now, let's look at the national trend and the Florida trend, overall whites voted more for Romney, blacks stayed about the same, and hispanics voted more for Obama. If you look at Dade County, you can see that it swung to Obama more so than last time. Considering the miniscule white population, only one in five in the county are white, and considering that about half of the county is hispanic white, and the fact that people in the county are kind of segregated (http://demographics.coopercenter.org/DotMap/index.html) then you can imagine the (more liberal) white vote going to the right, while all other groups trended towards the Democrats.

That map is kind of hard to tell, I wasn't able to zoom in close enough on my end.  However, I could see some of the white areas swinging towards Obama.  I'm assuming Miami Beach is part of Dade County.  If so, that area seems to be getting a lot whiter and higher end.  I bet these white voters are voting just like Northeasterners now.
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