KY-PPP: Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) moves into tie with Sen. McConnell (R)

[Tender Branson]

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mitch McConnell’s job performance?

Approve .......................................................... 44%
Disapprove...................................................... 47%

...

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Alison Lundergan Grimes?

Favorable........................................................ 34%
Unfavorable .................................................... 24%

...

Q3 If the choices for United States Senate were Republican Mitch McConnell and Democratic Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes, who would you vote for?

Mitch McConnell ............................................. 45%
Alison Lundergan Grimes ............................... 45%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/KentuckyPollingMemo52813.pdf

[RogueBeaver]

Result isn't unbelievable, but there are definitely push questions in there which read exactly like DSCC ads. Not the first time Jensen's done this sort of thing either.

[Tender Branson]

Result isn't unbelievable, but there are definitely push questions in there which read exactly like DSCC ads. Not the first time Jensen's done this sort of thing either.

That doesn't matter, because those "push" questions were asked after the horserace.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Only negative -3 for Mitch?  If it wasn't over before...

[publicunofficial]

Result isn't unbelievable, but there are definitely push questions in there which read exactly like DSCC ads. Not the first time Jensen's done this sort of thing either.

Push questions only matter if you ask them BEFORE the match-up/favorability questions, not after.

[RogueBeaver]

I wasn't far off: this poll was done for Reid's SuperPAC. Dems are also getting impatient with Grimes.

[Marston]

Yeah, I don't envy Grimes. She's surely the Dems best bet against McConnell, but she faces an uphill climb against an incumbent who'll surely attempt to destroy the personal and professional reputation of whoever runs against him.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Horrible numbers for McConnell, but he'll still probably pull it out in the end.

[pbrower2a]

Result isn't unbelievable, but there are definitely push questions in there which read exactly like DSCC ads. Not the first time Jensen's done this sort of thing either.

The first two questions are not push questions. The third is the meat of the poll.

Were it not that Kentucky has been a core R state in Presidential and Senatorial elections since 1998, one would see Senator McConnell in deep trouble. The likelihood of an incumbent politician being defeated is roughly 50-50 if his approval at the start of the campaign season is 44%. The chance of re-election approaches 100% as approval reaches 50% with very few exceptions (George Allen 2006 -- strong contender as an opponent, his political party in trouble,  incompetent campaign, and huge gaffes that got him defeated. Note well that Virginia had been see as a very R state going into 2006 because it hadn't voted for a Democratic nominee for President since the LBJ blowout of 1964 and had voted for a Democratic nominee in a close election only once since 1928. Carter couldn't win it despite winning every other former-Confederate State.  Clinton never won it despite being a strong campaigner. But that is Virginia and not Kentucky.

Politicians cannot campaign all the time, and they are always subject to cheap carping by opponents. Once they start campaigning, they usually show why they were elected the first time. If their approval ratings are below 44% they usually demonstrate why voting for them was a mistake the first time.

This is without a breaking scandal. Abuse of power? Failure to bring home the pork? If he is the Senate Minority Leader and you can't get something from the Other Side, maybe he is doing a poor job. Interstate 69 in Kentucky? Almost all of it is existing highway.

McConnell has plenty of time in which to build political respect in his own State. But "Senate Majority Leader" who does nothing for his state won't be a good reason for re-electing him.   

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I'm more interested in what happens at the state level. It's been 30 years since I've heard people talk as badly about the Republicans as they do now, but the GOP thuggery is unprecedented.

Even though I'm basically self-employed, I'm actually applying to join the National Writers Union, just because of the anti-union political thuggery of the Tea Party and the Republican Party of Kentucky.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

McConnell is really good in close races. As much as I'd love to see him defeated, I believe when I see.

[pbrower2a]

McConnell is really good in close races. As much as I'd love to see him defeated, I believe when I see.

Being good in close races is luck -- not talent. The questions are now whether he can bring out the base while holding onto enough independents and conservative Democrats... and how strong an opponent he faces. He will need every trick and he will need a very weak opponent to win. He has not brought home the pork for Kentucky, and should he try it might stll be too little too late.

[Miles]

Today, we'll find out about Grimes:

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[free my dawg]

Superficial comment that contributes nothing of substance: GODDAMN she is attractive!

For a politician at least. I'm out. 

Don't be ashamed. Starting a circlejerk over a politician's looks is an Atlas tradition.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Result isn't unbelievable, but there are definitely push questions in there which read exactly like DSCC ads. Not the first time Jensen's done this sort of thing either.

Push questions only matter if you ask them BEFORE the match-up/favorability questions, not after.

It very much does matter, because it tells you about the intentions of the pollster. Had the results not been favorable to Grimes, this poll may have simply been buried and unmentioned. That really screws with the intellectual honesty of the MOE calcs.