Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
July 23, 2019, 12:25:11 am
News: 2020 Presidential Predictions (General) are now active.

  Atlas Forum
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  VA-PPP: Hillary+1 against Christie, up 5 against Bush
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: VA-PPP: Hillary+1 against Christie, up 5 against Bush  (Read 1175 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 49,414
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: July 19, 2013, 11:49:02 am »

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 42%
Chris Christie .................................................. 41%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 47%
Jeb Bush......................................................... 42%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 49%
Bob McDonnell ............................................... 39%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 49%
Marco Rubio ................................................... 37%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 51%
Rand Paul ....................................................... 39%

PPP surveyed 601 registered voters between July 11-14, 2013. The margin of error was +/- 4.0%.

The poll also included oversamples of 415 Republican primary voters and 357 Democratic primary voters and the margins of error on those are +/-4.8% and +/-5.2% respectively.

This poll was not authorized or paid for by any campaign or political organization. PPP’s surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_VA_719.pdf
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 49,414
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: July 19, 2013, 11:57:50 am »

Christie leads Clinton by 18 among Indies ...

And much more Republicans are undecided.

Christie also led by a few points in the Quinnipiac poll among Indies.

So, maybe Christie is actually ahead of Hillary in VA at the moment.
Logged
Mr. Morden
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 39,491
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: July 19, 2013, 07:32:59 pm »

I think this poll has just about the largest gender gap of any poll I've ever seen:

Clinton/Christie: 29 point gender gap
Clinton/Paul: 34 point gender gap
Clinton/Rubio: 34 point gender gap
Clinton/McDonnell: 36 point gender gap
Clinton/Bush: 37 point gender gap

Also, other polls have shown Clinton being weaker among the youth vote than Obama was, while doing better among olds.....but this is ridiculous:

Christie vs. Clinton:
18-29: Christie +32
30-45: Christie +11
46-65: Clinton +16
65+: Christie +1
Logged
Phony Moderate
Obamaisdabest
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,340
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: July 19, 2013, 07:39:44 pm »

I think this poll has just about the largest gender gap of any poll I've ever seen:

Clinton/Christie: 29 point gender gap
Clinton/Paul: 34 point gender gap
Clinton/Rubio: 34 point gender gap
Clinton/McDonnell: 36 point gender gap
Clinton/Bush: 37 point gender gap

Also, other polls have shown Clinton being weaker among the youth vote than Obama was, while doing better among olds.....but this is ridiculous:

Christie vs. Clinton:
18-29: Christie +32
30-45: Christie +11
46-65: Clinton +16
65+: Christie +1


And for some reason 18-29 year-olds absolutely loathe Tim Kaine (18-71 approval rating). Yeah, very weird internals.
Logged
Scott
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18,299
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: July 19, 2013, 07:46:10 pm »

Why have youngs shifted so anti-Democrat all of a sudden? Huh
Logged
Beet
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 24,574


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: July 19, 2013, 08:42:26 pm »

Why have youngs shifted so anti-Democrat all of a sudden? Huh

It's a sub-sample of an N=600. I wouldn't put too much stock in individual breakdowns that aren't corroborated by other similar polls.
Logged
HagridOfTheDeep
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,920
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -3.35, S: -2.96


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: July 19, 2013, 08:52:09 pm »

But I wouldn't be surprised if youngs are just a bit more anti-incumbent in general. They don't have much electoral history or long-standing party allegiance, so it's probably easier for them just to stick all their problems on the party in power. All this electronic surveillance stuff will be "big government Democrat overreach" come three years from now. You think that'll sit well with youngs?

I don't think these numbers are totally accurate, but when Chris Christie comes along (you know, that popular guy who's been on SNL and Jimmy Fallon a bunch of times), he's bound to look at least a little attractive to young voters.
Logged
eric82oslo
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,363
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -6.00, S: -5.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: July 19, 2013, 09:02:15 pm »
« Edited: July 19, 2013, 09:03:50 pm by eric82oslo »

But I wouldn't be surprised if youngs are just a bit more anti-incumbent in general. They don't have much electoral history or long-standing party allegiance, so it's probably easier for them just to stick all their problems on the party in power. All this electronic surveillance stuff will be "big government Democrat overreach" come three years from now. You think that'll sit well with youngs?

I don't think these numbers are totally accurate, but when Chris Christie comes along (you know, that popular guy who's been on SNL and Jimmy Fallon a bunch of times), he's bound to look at least a little attractive to young voters.

I agree to all of this.

Hillary seems surprisingly uncool to young voters in Virginia. Perhaps they're worried that she'll be way too old come 2020 or 2024?

Also "interesting" to see how popular Joe Biden is with "very conservative old black male Democrats". Tongue And equally how popular Elizabeth Warren is with "very liberal young female Democrats". Smiley
Logged
Mr. Morden
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 39,491
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: July 19, 2013, 09:11:53 pm »

In terms of the age breakdown, and what other polls are saying….

Quinnipiac's recent poll of Virginia, Christie vs. Clinton:
18-29: Clinton +13
30-44: Clinton +9
45-64: Clinton +3
65+: Christie/Clinton tie

Quinnipiac's last national poll:
18-29: Clinton +33
30-44: Christie/Clinton tie
45-64: Clinton +4
65+: Christie/Clinton tie

Comparing to 2012….

2012 results--Virginia exit poll:
18-29: Obama +25
30-44: Obama +9
45-64: Romney +7
65+: Romney +8

2012 results--national exit poll:
18-29: Obama +23
30-44: Obama +7
45-64: Romney +4
65+: Romney +12

In the 2016 polling so far, some of the polls show Clinton doing just as well with youngs as Obama did, but others don't.  However, one clear trend is that for the other age brackets, we're not seeing that sharp gradient towards the GOP as you move from 30-44 year towards the older age brackets, as you saw with Obama.  In fact, some of the 2016 polling has shown 30-44 year olds as the GOP's strongest group.  (Though that's been less true lately.)
Logged
Mr. Morden
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 39,491
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: July 19, 2013, 09:29:11 pm »

Should also note that a diminishing of the age gap would represent something of a reversion to what things were like pre-Obama:


Logged
barfbag
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,643
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.26, S: -0.87

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: July 20, 2013, 12:58:45 am »

The age gap will close somewhat. I don't see Obama campaigning as hard with younger voters if it doesn't benefit him.
Logged
Conflicted Progressive
Jr. Member
**
Posts: 52


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: July 20, 2013, 08:36:04 am »

Why have youngs shifted so anti-Democrat all of a sudden? Huh

As others have said the subsample is incredibly small and thus has a very large MOE which gives us these very strange results which are hard to corroborate/disprove given that we aren't getting multiple swing-state polls every couple of weeks.

I certainly don't think we should take this as any indication that Christie has any unique appeal to young voters - though he certainly might given his less vitriolic approach to social issues - as most of the young voters who know him best (those surveyed in NJ for the Governor's race) support him at considerably lower rates than their elders.
Logged
Corbyn is a Strasserist
Ray Goldfield
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,046


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: July 20, 2013, 09:25:38 am »

This election is VERY winnable for Christie if he's only down 1 against Clinton right now.
Logged
President von Cat
captain copernicus
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 619


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: July 20, 2013, 07:41:46 pm »

This election is VERY winnable for Christie if he's only down 1 against Clinton right now.

But this election won't happen in a vacuum.

Christie's going to have to get the nomination first, and to do that he will have to say some things to make himself more palatable to the far right wing of the party. Clinton, if she runs, is probably set for the nomination this time.

Christie is also going to have to deal with people at campaign stops heckling him or asking him intrusive questions, and he's going to have to be less blusterous in his responses, lest he make a news cycle-dominating gaffe/controversial remark.

And I find it hard to believe Hilary isn't that "cool" among young voters. She was a meme!
Logged
Bull Moose Base
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,488


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: July 21, 2013, 06:10:08 pm »

Hillary vs Christie tracks Obama vs Romney that's also +1 in this sample. But I think the incumbency advantage was a disadvantage in 2012 with the weak economy.  I'd put her VA pointspread at 4.5. The closer VA is polling in 3 years, the better positioned Warner, Kaine and, if he wins and has high approvals, McAuliffe are in veepstakes.
Logged
bballrox4717
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 951


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: -3.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: July 21, 2013, 06:40:54 pm »

Young people like Christie right now because he seems cool, humored about his weight on SNL, and he called out Republicans in Congress for their antics when it came to Hurricane Sandy. Any sort of anti-partisan politics is massively popular with my generation right now, who just want to see things get done. The second Christie panders to the right in a primary, that youth lead and bipartisan image is going to go away so fast that it will neuter any advantage that Republicans would have seen in nominating him.

Christie is dangerous to the Democrats chances in 2016, but he becomes a lot less dangerous if can't win the primary without pandering to the far right, or his pre-Sandy partisan self emerges in a campaign.
Logged
barfbag
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,643
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.26, S: -0.87

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: July 21, 2013, 06:49:30 pm »

Young people like Christie right now because he seems cool, humored about his weight on SNL, and he called out Republicans in Congress for their antics when it came to Hurricane Sandy. Any sort of anti-partisan politics is massively popular with my generation right now, who just want to see things get done. The second Christie panders to the right in a primary, that youth lead and bipartisan image is going to go away so fast that it will neuter any advantage that Republicans would have seen in nominating him.

Christie is dangerous to the Democrats chances in 2016, but he becomes a lot less dangerous if can't win the primary without pandering to the far right, or his pre-Sandy partisan self emerges in a campaign.

What happens in the primaries seems to stay in the primaries. Clinton was very critical of Obama and then her and her supporters joined him. He has great appeal across the aisle. For example, he criticized Jon Corzine for leaving a Bruce Springsteen concert early. Springsteen isn't exactly the most popular among conservatives nor does he care for the Republican Party, but the two of them get along great. He also worked well with Obama to help with Hurricane Sandy. His conservative points should be highlighted if he wants to win the nomination such as wrestling with the teachers' union. Then in the general election, talk about his conservatism in ways that appeals to everyone such as keeping bureaucrats out of your child's education.
Logged
Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC