Elections coming up

[minionofmidas]

Hmmm...Half the voters could be undecided.  Wow!  Germans voters are even more volatile than those in the US, or maybe interest in the election is currently low.  Considering the economic crisis, interest should be high.

Not really...keep in mind that on "normal" turnout levels, this is unlosable for the SPD...and that there is no reason to expect anything like normalcy. The NRW SPD definitely deserves to lose. Those many undecideds are mostly SPD supporters who are unsure whether to vote something else this time, or vote SPD as usual or (and this will in the end be the most popular option) stay at home.

[minionofmidas]

All the major polling firms are ...more or less... trustworthy, with a semi-exception for Allensbach (though in 1998, Allensbach were more or less spot-on.) I'd have to check the link to see if there's any nonames mentioned.
Anyways, Germany is somewhat hard to poll because
a) so many people decide late if and how exactly to vote
b) so many people lie to pollsters
c) so many people won't talk to pollsters
d) probably other reasons more to do with the polling firms than the people.
So, sometimes they get it right, sometimes they screw up...the hard right is especially difficult to poll. The DVU's monster success in Sachsen-Anhalt in 1998 (accompanied by a surprise rise in turnout) was totally unforeseen , for example.

[minionofmidas]

Not to mention equally incompetent.

[minionofmidas]

That's beside the point though...americocentric(or any other xyzcentric) viewpoints will lead to false interpretations of facts.

[minionofmidas]

That's beside the point though...americocentric(or any other xyzcentric) viewpoints will lead to false interpretations of facts.

Maybe, although I personally think it's more of a realist vs. liberal foreign policy viewpoint that affects the topic in question. As for said topic - the Iranian election - Stratfor admitted they (like everybody else, for that matter ) got it wrong and were looking at why that was. You can disagree with their analysis of why, although given that there wasn't much space in-between the two candidates on Iranian-specific issues - two extremists, remember? - the notion that the election turned on policies vis-a-vis the U.S. is reasonable, as what else was there for the voters to base a decision on?

This election was fought almost 100% on the economy.
And they didn't get it wrong "like everybody else", btw. Polls done between the first round and the runoff all showed Ahmadinejad winning, although they underestimated the scale of Rafsanjani's defeat.
One other thing that should be obvious from these elections is that Rafsanjani didn't lose because "he has fallen out of favour with the Mullahs" - he was very much the establishment candidate. Which isn't the same as the Islamist candidate, or the Mullahs' candidate...but isn't the opposite either.
I came upon a very interesting article about Ahmadinejad's record as mayor of Tehran btw, see if I can still find it...

[minionofmidas]

He's certainly a very rich (supposedly) "self-made" man. That's bad enough for most Iranians. Would be bad enough in many European countries, actually. Wouldn't matter in Italy or the US...

[minionofmidas]

Are there any more international elections upcoming?

Here are the elections this month:

    * May 3 2006: Chad, President
    * May 6 2006: Singapore, Parliament
    * May 6 - May 13 2006: Fiji, General Election for the House of Representatives
    * May 14 2006: Comoros, Federal president
    * May 16 2006: Dominican Republic, Legislature
    * May 21 2006: Montenegro, referendum on Montenegrin independence
    * May 21 2006: Cyprus, Legislative
    * May 28 2006: Colombia, President
    * May 28 2006: Peru, Presidential runoff
    * May 31 2006: Montserrat, President
    * May 2006: Nauru, Parliament

I found a site that had some more
May 12, 2006: Italy, President

Elected by Parliament.
[/quote]

[minionofmidas]

Well they did elect one and installed him a few days ago, and he's a former Communist who supported the Soviets crushing the Hungarian Revolution. Interesting.

Does the President of Italy have any real power? I heard he does have the power to decide things such as if there should be a recount and mediate Constitutional crises, but that's about it.

In Italy the pm can issue edicts that are sort of like laws but only valid  for three months ... which the president can veto. Berlusconi talked about changing the recount procedures for three months by edict ... but the president made it clear that he'd veto any such thing.

[minionofmidas]

There were elections in Morocco. Much less gains for the Islamists than expected, although this was partly due to a regerrymandering apparently. Of course the Moroccan parliament has f-all power anyways.