Elections coming up

[WMS]

In March
March 27 2005: Transnistria, Parliament
March 29 2005: Somaliland, Parliament

Is the Transnistrian parliament a regional parliament
recognized under the Moldovan constitution, or is it
a separatist group?

I assume the Somaliland election is by a separatist
group as well.

Transnistria is a rather nasty separatist state. However, my Stratfor sources don't expect them to survive the year, now that Ukraine is no longer pro-Russian and can cut off their outside support from Russia.

Go here to see my post on Somaliland. I told y'all they were a rough republic! Let's see if there's any such elections in the rest of Somalia, huh?

[WMS]

Moldova Results

Another good site

One of the people I live with in DC is actually from Moldova. He voted in DC this past Sunday.

Rooting...for...Communists...over...centrists...argh! Foreign policy can make strange bedfellows (i.e., Pro-Western Communists vs. Pro-Russian centrists).

[WMS]

Look at the newest news from Somaliland!

Somaliland bans use of plastic bags
1 Mar 2005
NAIROBI,  (IRIN) - Authorities in the self-declared republic of Somaliland on Monday banned the use of all types of plastic bags, information minister, Abdillahi Duale, told IRIN.

"The bags have not only become an environmental problem, but also an eyesore," he said on Tuesday from the Somaliland capital, Hargeysa.

[snip for space]

[ENDS]

from http://www.xisbiga-udub.com/udub_w_4.htm

(Actually, looking around, these Somalilanders look pseudo-decent and pseudo-sane, unlike the rest of Somalia.  Cool )

Yay! I've always had a soft spot for Somaliland.

How...normal a story. Let's see the rest of Somalia stabilize things to that point! And have ELECTIONS, at that! Bloody UN/Arab League refusing to let anyone recognize them...*grumble*

[WMS]

I would have voted for the Christian Democrats, though with only about 10% of the vote, they wont even be a very loud minority.

Probably the same here. But still, what an odd choice for me to have to make...

[WMS]

Look at the newest news from Somaliland!

Somaliland bans use of plastic bags
1 Mar 2005
NAIROBI, (IRIN) - Authorities in the self-declared republic of Somaliland on Monday banned the use of all types of plastic bags, information minister, Abdillahi Duale, told IRIN.

"The bags have not only become an environmental problem, but also an eyesore," he said on Tuesday from the Somaliland capital, Hargeysa.

[snip for space]

[ENDS]

from http://www.xisbiga-udub.com/udub_w_4.htm

(Actually, looking around, these Somalilanders look pseudo-decent and pseudo-sane, unlike the rest of Somalia. Cool )

Yay! I've always had a soft spot for Somaliland.

How...normal a story. Let's see the rest of Somalia stabilize things to that point! And have ELECTIONS, at that! Bloody UN/Arab League refusing to let anyone recognize them...*grumble*

I think I shall put the Somaliland flag in my signature

Yay! I wonder how their elections will go later this month?

[WMS]

Yay! I wonder how their elections will go later this month?

I hope they go well.  I wonder what party I should be supporting...

I wonder what parties they have, anyway? I wonder if I can find a good source on that, since not being 'officially recognized' they don't get as much attention...
*edit* From Electionworld:
# Main political parties: Kulmiye Nabad, Midnimo iyo horumar (Solidarity)
# Ururka Caddaalada iyo Daryeelka (For Justice and Development)
# Ururka dimuqraadiga ummadda bahawday (For Unity, Democracy and Independence)

I wonder what differences there are between them? There's no ideological tags assigned to them.
*second edit* here has a little bit more:
Party abbreviations: SNM = Somali National Movement (Isaaq clan-family, secessionist, anti-Siad Barre, est.1981); UDUB = Ururka Dimuqraadiga Ummadda Bahawday (Allied People's Democratic Party, est.2001 by Egal) [WMS note: it appears SMN turned into UDUB]*end 2nd edit*

Now this was a close Presidential race:
President: 14 april 2003 (. %)    %
Dahir Riyale Kahin -
Ururka dimuqraadiga ummadda bahawday (UDUB)  42.1%
Ahmed M. Mahamoud Silanyo -
Kulmiye Nabad, Midnimo iyo horumar ('Solidarity')    42.1%
Faysal Cali Warabe -
Ururka Caddaalada iyo Daryeelka (UCID?)               15.8%

Interesting: a planned bicemeral parliament, one elected chamber and one chamber for traditional leaders.

[WMS]

Hmm... I don't think I'd support SNM, because they're clan oriented.  UDUB might be better (they're the People's party, so that suggests a leftist party, but ya never know).

We need to make our own little Somaliland fanpage and have all the parties on it

(The bicameral idea sounds awesome for them... it's an example of how to make democracy 'apply' to such a turbulent area)

I think SMN and UDUB are the same group.

Perhaps. Adding to the Wikipedia entry might be a good idea, too.

And yes, while one of the chambers of the parliament may not be popularly elected, it is still a lot better than most of the Third World in that regard. Maybe we'll get more information when the election happens.

[WMS]

Somaliland Election Countdown:

8 days

You keep track of that for me, OK?

[WMS]

I'll have to root for UDUB

They may not be a leftist party. It's difficult to tell what the points of divergence are between the parties, since no one pays much attention to them...

[WMS]

well there has to be a communist party of some sort. Is there any third world country without one?

Well, this is a highly Islamic country, so who knows? I'd say the odds are better here than in Somalia. There only appear to be three parties at the moment and one of them doesn't have a web page, so good luck finding them. Why don't you ask the Socialist International about that?

[WMS]

Somaliland?  Your interest in this is a joke, right?

Nope. I consider them to be a prime example of why the Arab League and the UN can be raging hypocrites, among other things. Also, it's nice to see Somalis who have it together and display something other than what we encountered all those years ago.

And I just find it interesting, OK? Hmph.

ILikeVerin can answer for himself.

[WMS]

Fair enough.  Since you take an interest in some out of the way locales, do you know anything about what is currently going on in Krygyzystan?  I can't say that I'm up to speed on the situation, but there seems to have been an election a couple of months ago, and the ruling govt is charged with rigging the vote or something, ala Ukraine. 

DW-TV has been showing scenes of rioting and such, though I haven't seen anything on the US networks about it. 

Just wondering if you know anything about the political situation in that former Soviet Republic.

Oh, I'm glad I have Stratfor right now. Basically, there were parliamentary elections (two rounds, 17 February and 13 March of this year per Electionworld.org) which were rigged - nothing new about that - but this time something different happened.

First, yes, the opposition to the (now-fled, I believe) presidential regime of Askar Akajevič Akajev had Western support this time. Yep, the same people who were involved in past electoral events in Serbia, Georgia, Ajara, Ukraine, and even a little bit in Moldova have arrived in Kyrgyzstan! The Russians and Chinese must be throwing a s*it fit over that, considering that there most definitely is the arm of the U.S. and E.U. behind this...(but not Germany, who is moving toward a pro-Russian stance).

Second, something I hadn't known before Stratfor: traditionally, the northern and southern clans in Kyrgyzstan would alternate in power - yea, even Stalin didn't interfere with that. Now President Akajev was going for a third term - he's from the north - and the tribes in the south who coincidentally make up the bulk of the protestors/resistance thought that it was time for a southerner to take over. Note how the protests began in the south of Kyrgyzstan.

Third, were you aware that a lot of those southern tribes are Uzbeks? Gee, that might add just a tad to the hostility.

Fourth, the military and police appear to have abandoned Akajev and cut a deal with the protestors/resistance.

Fifth, watch out for Uzbekistan's tyrant - he might try to interfere.

Finally, the big question is: can the protestors/resistance hold together to form a new government?

Hope that helps...
*edit*
New information: *SITUATION HIGHLY IN FLUX* (24 March 2005)

I just read my Stratfor site and things are rather complicated...it appears the U.S. and E.U. weren't quite expecting this to happen right this minute...watch Russia...watch China...watch Uzbekistan...watch Kazakhstan.
*end edit*

[WMS]

Sen. WMS,

Good analysis.

According to DW-TV,  it was a little messier than the popular uprising in Ukraine, though not terribly so, and it appears the the military wasn't eager to put its neck out for the former Pres.  It will be interesting to see how things pan out.

Thanks. I give lots of credit to my Internet sources on this one, especially Stratfor. I added a little bit myself, especially to the more general Freedom House picture, but I mostly just assembled some sources. That bit on DW-TV sounds interesting.

There's a thread over in International Politics on Kyrgyzstan as well.

[WMS]

What do your starfor sources tell you about the Transnistria elections?

They only do elections if they're geopolitically important, but let's see:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

And that's pretty much it. It probably won't matter, since Transnistria's days are numbered. But judging from The Freedom House Report on it, perhaps it's just as well.

Transnistria (Political Rights/Civil Liberties)
2004  6  6  NF
2003  6  6  NF
2002  6  6  NF
2001  6  6  NF
2000  6  6  NF
1999  6  6  NF
1998  6  6  NF
1997  6  6  NF
1996  X  X  XX
1995  X  X  XX
1994  X  X  XX

1991 Seceded from Moldova over concerns over Moldovan-Romanian unification; with lots of Russian support
1991-1992 war; 1992 cease-fire
1991-current: Authoritarian Republic; President Igor Smirnov;
highly corrupt and repressive; de-facto one-party rule
2000 parliamentary elections; 2001 presidential elections; both
sets not at all free and fair; "Smirnov was declared the victor,
in some areas winning by a considerable margin. In the northern
region of Kamenka, for example, he received 103.6 percent of the
vote, indicating significant ballot-stuffing."
*May not survive 2005 w/Ukraine and Moldova becoming pro-Western*

[WMS]

Somaliland Election countdown...

0 days, HOORAY!

*goes and looks for any sites that might have ...anything...*

Don't keep us in suspense, who won?

I haven't been able to find anything yet. If I do, I'll be sure to let you know.

[WMS]

Somaliland Election countdown...

0 days, HOORAY!

*goes and looks for any sites that might have ...anything...*

Don't keep us in suspense, who won?

I haven't been able to find anything yet. If I do, I'll be sure to let you know.

Still haven't found anything...in English. There's a site or two in Somali which appear to be more updated, but nothing I could make out.

[WMS]

Somaliland Election countdown...

0 days, HOORAY!

*goes and looks for any sites that might have ...anything...*

Don't keep us in suspense, who won?

I haven't been able to find anything yet. If I do, I'll be sure to let you know.

Still haven't found anything...in English. There's a site or two in Somali which appear to be more updated, but nothing I could make out.

Here's the site which has the most up-to-date information. But it's in Somali.

[WMS]

Somaliland Election countdown...

0 days, HOORAY!

*goes and looks for any sites that might have ...anything...*

Don't keep us in suspense, who won?

I haven't been able to find anything yet. If I do, I'll be sure to let you know.

Still haven't found anything...in English. There's a site or two in Somali which appear to be more updated, but nothing I could make out.

Still nothing?

Elections Postponed; all three political parties vote for postponement; elections to be held "sometime this year"; sounds like some bugs have to be worked out.

Finally, some friggin' information!

*edit* I'm not sure the new rules they've voted on are a good thing or not...read more of the English articles on that site to see what I mean.
*end edit*

[WMS]

Elections Postponed;

Whyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy?

I'm not sure...but it sounds like political games by all three main political parties. So much for this entertaining election.

[WMS]

The Ethiopian Parliamentary election was held on May 15, and at least didn't erupt into violence. Might be fair, might not.

Details here.

[WMS]

From, what else, Stratfor sources: Rafsanjani will win, and that isn't necessarily a bad thing - he's about the only person in Iran with the power and desire to open relations with the U.S. While he's no democrat - ruthless ambitious political pragmatist fits Raf the best - he's better than anyone else the mullahs will allow to win. That's why the vote will go his way - the other candidates will be worse!

The Ethiopian Parliamentary election was held on May 15, and at least didn't erupt into violence. Might be fair, might not.

Details here.

Things kinda went downhill after protestors demonstrating against claimed (and quite possible) electoral fraud got shot and killed...details if I can find them.

[WMS]

Iran just needs to overthrow their government already. They overthrew the Shah pretty easily, I don't see why it'd be a problem

Guns, guns, guns...one side's got them all. Now if there was an Iranian NRA, and an armed populace...

[WMS]

That was also true with the Shah.

I think the Shah lost the support of the Iranian military. The mullahs haven't yet - also, developing nukes is really popular amongst all of Iranian society, so that helps out the mullahs. And the young people aren't ready to put their lives on the line yet either...

[WMS]

From, what else, Stratfor sources: Rafsanjani will win, and that isn't necessarily a bad thing - he's about the only person in Iran with the power and desire to open relations with the U.S. While he's no democrat - ruthless ambitious political pragmatist fits Raf the best - he's better than anyone else the mullahs will allow to win. That's why the vote will go his way - the other candidates will be worse!

So much for Stratfor.  What are they saying to explain their errant guess prediction?

That they were surprised, for one thing - they admitted they got it wrong, and examinied why. Let's see...

First the summary of their big story on it:
"Iran: A Victory for the Hard-Liners
June 25, 2005 02 19  GMT

Summary

Preliminary results of the Iranian presidential election indicate that hard-liner Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the mayor of Tehran, has defeated reformist and former President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani in the runoff presidential election held June 24. Ahmadinejad's victory shows some signs of tampering by the regime, and signals that Iran's clerics are not interested in reconciliation with the United States. The victory, however, could complicate a number of issues for the clerics. "

And some snippets from that article:
"Initially, Stratfor forecast that Rafsanjani would win the elections. Rafsanjani represented the best chance for political reconciliation between the clerical regime and the reformist camp, as he had gained support from both sides. He had also gained the lead in the majority of polls before the first round of elections. Moreover, with a showdown with the United States regarding Iran's potential development of nuclear weapons looming, the West also showed interest in Rafsanjani due to his statements that the time for reconciliation between the two sides may have come. "
[paragraph in between on how the Iranian regime 'influenced' the results]
"Rafsanjani's search for better relations with Washington is the thread that unwound his previously favorable relationship with the clerics. The regime, by refusing to allow Rafsanjani to take the political helm, is signalling the Bush administration and reformists that the regime is not ready or willing to make conciliatory actions toward the United States. Instead, the regime is sending the message that it is willing to accept the difficult consequences that could follow a policy clash with the reformists -- which will likely include some elements of public backlash the regime has tried so desperately to avoid."

Now from their daily Geopolitical Diary, one of my favorite things about them:

"The defeat of Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani in Iran's presidential runoff over the weekend surprised much of the world -- including us."

"Though there is much about the inner workings of Iran's political system that has been opaque since the Revolution of 1979, two things are clear: The clerics continue to wield the utmost power, and Rafsanjani somehow has fallen from grace.

Ultimately, the election outcome signifies that the locus of influence within the Iranian establishment has shifted, and the political structure must be remapped for forecasting purposes. "

"The line in the sand, we suspect, was crossed when Rafsanjani publicly said he would spend considerable effort in pursuing rapprochement with Washington -- contingent, of course, upon a change in U.S. attitude toward Iran. This potential interface -- at a time when the Bush administration is aggressively touted a democratization offensive in the Middle East and elsewhere -- logically would be perceived by the unelected clerical establishment as a serious threat to its political legacy. The rapprochement stance, coupled with a significant domestic movement calling for political reforms, eventually would have sounded the death knell for the clerics. Thus, an Ahmedinejad presidency."

See, they admit when a forecast goes awry...

[WMS]

I still think that they pursue an overly Amero-centric interpretation of events.  Ahmadinejad's victory can be explained largely in terms of Iran's internal politics.  Clearly, his policies resonated enough for him to become the most popular of the anti-Rafsanjani candidates, and the mullahs were canny enough to offer the voters a choice of which style of hard liner would be president.  Given that the mullahs have made it abudantly clear that in certain areas they aren't going to let the President decide things, I think that the Iranian voters made the perfectly logical decision to base their votes upon the issues that the mullahs would let the next presidemt handle.  It's hard to say how much monkeying around the mullahs did in the electoral process, but Bush with his foot-in-mouth comment about the validity of Iranian elections certainly gave the mullahs added incentive to work against the most pro-Western of the candidates they allowed to run.

They're a private company and their forecasts are used by their customers, which are probably dominated by Americans. They're also pretty much realists on foreign policy and so the impact the election has on the policies of the world's sole hyperpower+ probably is more important than the impacts on internal Iranian politics. Geopolitics over everything else, basically. And that's as much as I can guess, given that I don't work there or know anybody there.