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  IA-Quinnipiac: Hillary tied with Christie, leads Walker - Biden trails both
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Author Topic: IA-Quinnipiac: Hillary tied with Christie, leads Walker - Biden trails both  (Read 1653 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: July 22, 2013, 06:33:21 am »

41-41 Clinton vs. Christie
46-39 Clinton vs. Walker

32-49 Biden vs. Christie
39-42 Biden vs. Walker

...

Favorables:

42-16 Christie (+26)
52-41 Clinton (+11)
17-17 Walker (even)
38-47 Biden (-9)

...

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?

41-55 disapprove

...

From July 15 - 17, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,256 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/iowa/release-detail?ReleaseID=1926
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #1 on: July 22, 2013, 07:20:14 am »

Because there's been a lot of discussion of the age differential in the recent polls:

Christie vs. Clinton by age:
18-29: Clinton +12
30-44: Christie +6
45-64: Christie +2
65+: Clinton +1

Christie favorability by age:
18-29: +5
30-44: +24
45-64: +33
65+: +37

Clinton favorability by age:
18-29: +7
30-44: +10
45-64: +12
65+: +14

So yeah, Christie is viewed more favorably by olds than by youngs, which is the normal pattern for Republicans, but Clinton is also viewed a bit more favorably by olds than youngs, which is a stark contrast to how Obama has typically polled.  Then again, at least in this poll:

Obama job approval by age:
18-29: -15
30-44: -23
45-64: -10
65+: -9
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JRP1994
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« Reply #2 on: July 22, 2013, 08:51:18 am »

Is the party-ID sample in this poll skewed towards Republicans? If not, Biden is getting OBLITERATED.
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A-Bob
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« Reply #3 on: July 22, 2013, 09:10:22 am »

These doubt digit-20 point swings from Clinton-Christie to Christie-Biden is amazing
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HagridOfTheDeep
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« Reply #4 on: July 22, 2013, 09:26:57 am »

It certainly gives me some hope that Obama was a one-time thing. Clinton is obviously an exception, but if the Biden numbers are what we'll revert back to with an "average Democrat," that's pretty good news for the GOP.
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JRP1994
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« Reply #5 on: July 22, 2013, 09:35:39 am »

It certainly gives me some hope that Obama was a one-time thing. Clinton is obviously an exception, but if the Biden numbers are what we'll revert back to with an "average Democrat," that's pretty good news for the GOP.

I think Biden is probably worse than a generic democrat. Quite bluntly - he's old, has a history of failed Presidential campaigns, and is nearly as gaffe-prone as Dan Quayle.

Clinton, on the other hand, is probably running a few points better than a generic democrat. Average Clinton & Biden's results, and you're probably in the general ballpark of how a generic democrat would be performing right now.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #6 on: July 22, 2013, 02:00:09 pm »

If Clinton and Biden are not the "Generic Ds", then Christie is no "Generic R" either.

Christie is popular because of the Sandy management and because he's a good buddy of Obama (something else ?).

Of course he has to win the GOP nomination first ...

Currently, there's no real "Generic D" (maybe Warren or O'Malley ?), while there are many "Generic Rs" (Paul, Rubio, Bush, Cruz).
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LiberalJunkie
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« Reply #7 on: July 22, 2013, 02:08:23 pm »

So hillary is running better against Christie in Virginia then Iowa?
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cheesepizza
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« Reply #8 on: July 22, 2013, 02:32:21 pm »

The 41% job approval mark was interesting.  That's very low for Obama.  If that keeps up in swing states, it's very unlikely a Democrat could hold the Presidency
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Beat-‘Em-All Beto
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« Reply #9 on: July 22, 2013, 03:06:20 pm »

LOL Quinnipiac
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #10 on: July 22, 2013, 08:18:20 pm »

Obama's job approval rating has indeed been on the downswing nationally:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/07/22/obama-approval_n_3636526.html

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/359417024159551489
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barfbag
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« Reply #11 on: July 22, 2013, 11:27:26 pm »

Obama is going the way of Bush.
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Solidarity Forever
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« Reply #12 on: July 23, 2013, 12:39:21 am »

Obama is going the way of Bush.

Except for the financial crisis, the failure to respond to a national disaster, or the duo of unfinanced, unnecessary wars.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #13 on: July 23, 2013, 12:47:49 am »

Obama is going the way of Bush.

Pretty much.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #14 on: July 23, 2013, 07:44:37 am »

Obama is going the way of Bush.

Just no big, dramatic events lately. News involving this President is getting dull.

Better dullness in the news than exciting catastrophe, I suppose. 
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barfbag
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« Reply #15 on: July 23, 2013, 11:20:57 pm »

Obama is going the way of Bush.

Except for the financial crisis, the failure to respond to a national disaster, or the duo of unfinanced, unnecessary wars.

And no partisanship either. Oh wait ^
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #16 on: July 24, 2013, 11:44:06 am »

Obama's numbers are on the downswing every summer.
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Beat-‘Em-All Beto
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« Reply #17 on: July 24, 2013, 11:52:03 am »

What is it that's pushing his fall though? Nothing's really even happened. Nobody's talking about those scandals. Yet apparently Democratic approval is falling and Independents hate him now.
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #18 on: August 24, 2013, 11:28:34 pm »

What is it that's pushing his fall though? Nothing's really even happened. Nobody's talking about those scandals. Yet apparently Democratic approval is falling and Independents hate him now.

Good question. There's the possibility that there is some sort of cultural shift going on to where people just want to go to church and get rich. More likely though is that the base is disenchanted with the Snowden/Manning thing or even more likely, its summer and Obama doesn't do well in the summer because nothing is getting down because congress is out. At least this time, there aren't fundies and fascists bringing guns to town halls and accusing congressmen on being Manchurianesque commienazies.
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politicallefty
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« Reply #19 on: August 25, 2013, 08:07:40 am »

I wouldn't expect Hillary to perform particularly strong in Iowa. However, I don't think this poll is all too favourable to her when you consider Obama's 41% approval rating in the state.
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barfbag
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« Reply #20 on: August 25, 2013, 08:56:00 am »

I wouldn't expect Hillary to perform particularly strong in Iowa. However, I don't think this poll is all too favourable to her when you consider Obama's 41% approval rating in the state.

His numbers may hurt her like Bush's numbers hurt McCain.
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #21 on: August 25, 2013, 08:59:45 am »

I wouldn't expect Hillary to perform particularly strong in Iowa. However, I don't think this poll is all too favourable to her when you consider Obama's 41% approval rating in the state.

Same as in Colorado. Her husband did quite well here. Why would she botch Iowa but carry Missouri?

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barfbag
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« Reply #22 on: August 25, 2013, 09:09:29 am »

I wouldn't expect Hillary to perform particularly strong in Iowa. However, I don't think this poll is all too favourable to her when you consider Obama's 41% approval rating in the state.

Same as in Colorado. Her husband did quite well here. Why would she botch Iowa but carry Missouri?



Are you saying the polls are wrong?
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #23 on: August 25, 2013, 09:28:18 am »

I wouldn't expect Hillary to perform particularly strong in Iowa. However, I don't think this poll is all too favourable to her when you consider Obama's 41% approval rating in the state.

Same as in Colorado. Her husband did quite well here. Why would she botch Iowa but carry Missouri?



Are you saying the polls are wrong?

Not necessarily. We still just had the 2012 election. These numbers are very characteristic of where Obama was during 2010-2011 and he still turned out fine. Quinnipiac is the only one consistently polling these places and we do not have any narrative to explain what's going on to believe these numbers except some voters who voted for Obama think that Hillary is a jackass.
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barfbag
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« Reply #24 on: August 25, 2013, 09:32:46 am »

I wouldn't expect Hillary to perform particularly strong in Iowa. However, I don't think this poll is all too favourable to her when you consider Obama's 41% approval rating in the state.

Same as in Colorado. Her husband did quite well here. Why would she botch Iowa but carry Missouri?



Are you saying the polls are wrong?

Not necessarily. We still just had the 2012 election. These numbers are very characteristic of where Obama was during 2010-2011 and he still turned out fine. Quinnipiac is the only one consistently polling these places and we do not have any narrative to explain what's going on to believe these numbers except some voters who voted for Obama think that Hillary is a jackass.

It's 2013 so I'm not looking much at polls for 2016. Obama's numbers have never been impressive since he took office.
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