[...] considering that most of the undecideds probably tilt Republican [...]
Alaska is the most elastic Atlas blue state, so these are most likely genuine undecided voters up for grab.
Sure, Alaska is an elastic state but it can only stretch so far, historically undecided voters lean republican in Alaska. According to Gallup 46.5% of residents lean republican, so that's the floor for republicans, and 34.3% lean democratic, which is the floor for democrats. That suggests that Begich's result in 2008 was close to the ceiling for democrats in that state. Ted Stevens got 46.5% of the vote 2008, the exact same number that lean republican. No matter what happens here this will be a close race and is certainly still a pure toss-up. Here are estimates of the range of votes based on Gallup.
Alaska republican range of vote (estimate): 46.5%-65.7%.
Alaska democratic range of vote(estimate): 34.3%-53.5%.
