GA-PPP: Michelle Nunn (D) makes it a race to watch

[Adam Griffin]

The flood of Obama = Nunn ads and the dropoff in brown turnout make me very pessimistic about this race.

Paging Adam Griffin with his charts on the racial turnout. Whites will almost certainly make a greater percentage of the electorate than in 2012 yes but non-white vote share will probably even be higher than it was in 2008 if you look at the trend.

Hello everyone I am here

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Those Georgia stat posts are always a great read. One thing I wonder about going forward is if whites shift a bit in their voting patterns, say Georgia whites being less Republican in 2016 compared to 2004 due to part of the older generation being replaced with the younger generation of whites. A 2012 exit poll for Georgia sure would have been nice...

I would have loved to have seen some exit polling. In the second graphic that I just added, the closest scenarios for each race's likely voter breakdown is presented (2008 in green, 2012 in orange). If you compare the 2008 scenario to the exit polling, you'll see it's pretty close. In other words, I think the 2012 scenario on my spreadsheet there is pretty dang close (whites, 79% Romney; non-whites, 86% Obama). While the actual scenario isn't visible on the chart, in 2010 (with adjustments made to include the 4% that Monds (L) received in the general election), Barnes appears to have received 19% of the white vote and 85% of the non-white vote; there was certainly a bit of a rebound in 2012.

Still, the one thing I am bullish about in Georgia is a sudden shift in white voters. Sure, a candidate like Nunn may pull some of the older, disaffected Dems and moderates back into the fold for this occasion. Ultimately, though, 2008 exit polls showed that young Georgians are basically as Republican as their elders - I believe 18-30 was 51% McCain.

[Adam Griffin]

Those Georgia stat posts are always a great read. One thing I wonder about going forward is if whites shift a bit in their voting patterns, say Georgia whites being less Republican in 2016 compared to 2004 due to part of the older generation being replaced with the younger generation of whites. A 2012 exit poll for Georgia sure would have been nice...

I would have loved to have seen some exit polling. In the second graphic that I just added, the closest scenarios for each race's likely voter breakdown is presented (2008 in green, 2012 in orange). If you compare the 2008 scenario to the exit polling and election results, you'll see it's pretty close. In other words, I think the 2012 scenario on my spreadsheet there is pretty dang close (whites, 79% Romney; non-whites, 86% Obama). While the actual scenario isn't visible on the chart, in 2010 (with adjustments made to include the 4% that Monds (L) received in the general election), Barnes appears to have received 19% of the white vote and 85% of the non-white vote; there was perhaps a small rebound in 2012.

Still, the one thing I am bearish about in Georgia is a sudden shift in white voters. Sure, a candidate like Nunn may pull some of the older, disaffected Dems and moderates back into the fold for this occasion. Ultimately, though, 2008 exit polls showed that young Georgians are basically as Republican as their elders - I believe 18-30 was 51% McCain. Kerry got 23% of the white vote, as did Obama in 2008. In 2012, it appears to have been 20%. This is all riding on the subtle shifts in the electorate.

[GAworth]

As a Georgian I am so excited to see Michelle Nunn be competitive. Although I am not sure her campaign strategy is the best. I do feel the large GOP field will hurt the Republicans, that combined with the slow but consistent demographic shift could make GA a purple state and Nunn the best chance in '14 for Dems in GA state wide. (Sorry Mayor Reed)

[Badger]

Till we see Nunn hitting at or DARN near 50%, she's an underdog at best. A post-November runoff electorate will be strongly tilted GOP.

[IceSpear]

If the nominee is Broun or Gingrey, I think she'll have a good shot. The others would probably beat her handily.

[PolitiJunkie]

If the nominee is Broun or Gingrey, I think she'll have a good shot. The others would probably beat her handily.

I'd be willing to bet two or three fingers that it WILL be Broun or Gingrey though.