Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
October 18, 2019, 11:42:23 pm
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

  Atlas Forum
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  GA-PPP: Clinton leads all but Christie and Bush
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 Print
Author Topic: GA-PPP: Clinton leads all but Christie and Bush  (Read 2137 times)
JRP1994
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,646


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: August 08, 2013, 10:45:18 am »

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_GA_080813.pdf


Clinton leads Sarah Palin 51-38

Clinton leads Rand Paul 48-43

Clinton leads Newt Gingrich 47-43

Clinton leads Paul Ryan 47-44

Clinton ties Jeb Bush at 45

Clinton trails Chris Christie 42-44
Logged
Chief Justice windjammer
windjammer
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13,799
France


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: August 08, 2013, 10:48:26 am »

Georgie will be in play with Clinton Smiley.
Logged
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,301
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: August 08, 2013, 05:26:14 pm »


If Georgia is in play, then the Democrat is winning electoral votes in the high 300's.  Georgia hasn't voted for a Democratic nominee for President since 1992. If Hillary Clinton wins Georgia she is probably also winning Arizona, Indiana, and Missouri as well and she has won North Carolina.
Logged
TDAS04
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15,090
Nepal


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: August 08, 2013, 05:28:42 pm »

She even leads Newt in Newt's home state.  Interesting. 
Logged
NewYorkExpress
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,662
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: August 08, 2013, 05:31:51 pm »

Why poll Palin? There's no way she's running now.
Logged
Lief 🐋
Lief
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 40,599
Dominica


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: August 08, 2013, 05:35:51 pm »

Good, good. She still has a realistic path to 400 electoral votes.
Logged
barfbag
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,643
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.26, S: -0.87

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: August 08, 2013, 09:23:32 pm »

About what I would expect 3 years prior to an election. If she's not at 50% the night before the election though, she won't win a state like Georgia.
Logged
Liberalrocks
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,646
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.35


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: August 08, 2013, 09:24:50 pm »

Why poll Palin? There's no way she's running now.

As a democrat I can still dream, right ? LOL
Logged
Bacon King
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18,357
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: August 08, 2013, 09:42:06 pm »

Crosstabs hint at a less favorable picture than the topline numbers indicate. Note that Republicans are two to three times as likely as Democrats to be undecided in the various Hilldawg matchups- in Georgia, the undecideds always break to the right Sad
Logged
barfbag
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,643
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.26, S: -0.87

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: August 08, 2013, 11:15:24 pm »

Crosstabs hint at a less favorable picture than the topline numbers indicate. Note that Republicans are two to three times as likely as Democrats to be undecided in the various Hilldawg matchups- in Georgia, the undecideds always break to the right Sad

Finally a Democrat who lives in reality. In order for Clinton or whoever the Democratic nominee for president in 2016 is, they would have to have more than 320 EV first. It's not out of reach, but unlikely to vote for the Democratic candidate.
Logged
Invisible Obama
DrScholl
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9,894
United States



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: August 09, 2013, 10:03:36 am »

Clinton has a better chance of winning Georgia than Republicans have of winning Pennsylvania. Four years is a long time demographically when it comes to elections, Clinton would probably win Georgia if she ran, because of shifts in the Metro area and performing better than Obama in ancestral Democratic areas.
Logged
Chief Justice windjammer
windjammer
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13,799
France


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: August 09, 2013, 10:04:11 am »


If Georgia is in play, then the Democrat is winning electoral votes in the high 300's.  Georgia hasn't voted for a Democratic nominee for President since 1992. If Hillary Clinton wins Georgia she is probably also winning Arizona, Indiana, and Missouri as well and she has won North Carolina.
Clinton is strong in the south, weak in the West. And sorry, georgia is less rep than Indiana and Missouri.
Logged
barfbag
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,643
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.26, S: -0.87

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: August 09, 2013, 08:53:41 pm »

Clinton has a better chance of winning Georgia than Republicans have of winning Pennsylvania. Four years is a long time demographically when it comes to elections, Clinton would probably win Georgia if she ran, because of shifts in the Metro area and performing better than Obama in ancestral Democratic areas.

With all things being equal I'd put Georgia at about 55-45. She would have to have Obama 2008 numbers to have a chance at winning. Making it close could happen if she's willing to spend time and money there as opposed to Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Nevada, and Colorado.
Logged
MalaspinaGold
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 990


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: August 10, 2013, 12:25:34 am »

Wait so after only giving 53% to the opponent of an incumbent president who was about the worst fit imaginable, you're saying Hillary does two points WORSE?
Logged
barfbag
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,643
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.26, S: -0.87

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: August 10, 2013, 01:10:16 am »

Wait so after only giving 53% to the opponent of an incumbent president who was about the worst fit imaginable, you're saying Hillary does two points WORSE?

Obama was a phenomenal fit for Georgia.
Logged
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,301
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: August 11, 2013, 08:53:59 am »

Wait so after only giving 53% to the opponent of an incumbent president who was about the worst fit imaginable, you're saying Hillary does two points WORSE?

Obama was a phenomenal fit for Georgia.

No. He wasn't as horrible a fit for Georgia as he was for Tennessee. Northern Georgia seems to vote much like North Carolina; southern Georgia seems to vote like Mississippi.
Logged
Invisible Obama
DrScholl
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9,894
United States



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: August 11, 2013, 09:15:03 am »

Clinton has a better chance of winning Georgia than Republicans have of winning Pennsylvania. Four years is a long time demographically when it comes to elections, Clinton would probably win Georgia if she ran, because of shifts in the Metro area and performing better than Obama in ancestral Democratic areas.

With all things being equal I'd put Georgia at about 55-45. She would have to have Obama 2008 numbers to have a chance at winning. Making it close could happen if she's willing to spend time and money there as opposed to Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Nevada, and Colorado.

Predictions should not be based on what you want to happen. The fact that Hillary could do better in ancestral Democratic areas and because there are trends in the Metro area, it's highly unlike that she'd do worse than Obama. Even if she doesn't do better in ancestral areas, she still should perform as well as Obama in the Metro area.
Logged
barfbag
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,643
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.26, S: -0.87

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: August 11, 2013, 09:01:41 pm »

Wait so after only giving 53% to the opponent of an incumbent president who was about the worst fit imaginable, you're saying Hillary does two points WORSE?

Obama was a phenomenal fit for Georgia.

No. He wasn't as horrible a fit for Georgia as he was for Tennessee. Northern Georgia seems to vote much like North Carolina; southern Georgia seems to vote like Mississippi.

You agree with me that he was a good fit for Georgia?
Logged
barfbag
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,643
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.26, S: -0.87

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: August 11, 2013, 09:02:43 pm »

Clinton has a better chance of winning Georgia than Republicans have of winning Pennsylvania. Four years is a long time demographically when it comes to elections, Clinton would probably win Georgia if she ran, because of shifts in the Metro area and performing better than Obama in ancestral Democratic areas.

With all things being equal I'd put Georgia at about 55-45. She would have to have Obama 2008 numbers to have a chance at winning. Making it close could happen if she's willing to spend time and money there as opposed to Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Nevada, and Colorado.

Predictions should not be based on what you want to happen. The fact that Hillary could do better in ancestral Democratic areas and because there are trends in the Metro area, it's highly unlike that she'd do worse than Obama. Even if she doesn't do better in ancestral areas, she still should perform as well as Obama in the Metro area.

Ok?
Logged
old timey villain
cope1989
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,741


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: August 11, 2013, 11:55:50 pm »

I'm going to assume that in 2016 black turnout in GA drops slightly from 2012 while Hispanic and Asian turnout increase, so we see a statewide electorate a little less whiter than last time.

If that's the case, here's how Hillary wins the state

-run up huge margins in Dekalb, Fulton and Clayton/ win Rockdale, Newton and Henry

-Make Cobb and Gwinnett even closer than last time

- try to get above 25% in Forsyth and Cherokee counties, above 30% in Coweta/Paulding/Hall, above 35% in Fayette

-Break the 30% threshold in north Georgia counties, maybe 35%

-Try to win some of those dixiecrat counties in south Georgia, like Clinch, Telfair, Grady and Ben Hill. She'll never do as well down there as Bill but she can win a few back

All that would probably give the state to Hillary by like a point or two. I don't know if she could do it but it's possible
Logged
barfbag
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,643
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.26, S: -0.87

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: August 14, 2013, 03:42:30 pm »

I'm going to assume that in 2016 black turnout in GA drops slightly from 2012 while Hispanic and Asian turnout increase, so we see a statewide electorate a little less whiter than last time.

If that's the case, here's how Hillary wins the state

-run up huge margins in Dekalb, Fulton and Clayton/ win Rockdale, Newton and Henry

-Make Cobb and Gwinnett even closer than last time

- try to get above 25% in Forsyth and Cherokee counties, above 30% in Coweta/Paulding/Hall, above 35% in Fayette

-Break the 30% threshold in north Georgia counties, maybe 35%

-Try to win some of those dixiecrat counties in south Georgia, like Clinch, Telfair, Grady and Ben Hill. She'll never do as well down there as Bill but she can win a few back

All that would probably give the state to Hillary by like a point or two. I don't know if she could do it but it's possible

That's a lot to have to happen. Only time will tell. With a gun to my head and all things being equal, I'd put Georgia at about 54-44.
Logged
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,301
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: August 16, 2013, 04:33:18 pm »

Why poll Palin? There's no way she's running now.

Match a woman against a woman and gender becomes irrelevant... but every other difference become significant.
Logged
barfbag
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,643
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.26, S: -0.87

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: August 17, 2013, 10:18:39 pm »

Why poll Palin? There's no way she's running now.

Match a woman against a woman and gender becomes irrelevant... but every other difference become significant.

Yes and no. Gender would be the hype of the media all year if two women ran for the White House.
Logged
HokeyDood
HockeyDude
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,712
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: August 17, 2013, 11:06:46 pm »

Wait so after only giving 53% to the opponent of an incumbent president who was about the worst fit imaginable, you're saying Hillary does two points WORSE?

Obama was a phenomenal fit for Georgia.

Uhhhh no.  Obama is a black, you see. 
Logged
Snowstalker's Last Stand
Snowstalker
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,308
Greece


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: August 17, 2013, 11:09:49 pm »

Why even bother polling Palin?
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC