Path of least resistance for Popular Vote Compact and Poll - Will it succeed?

[Space7]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact

^ Read if you don't know what it is.

Whether you like the idea of it or not, will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact succeed?

It has passed in enough states to make up just over a quarter of the electoral votes, half way to their goal (136/270). The states where it has passed are Washington, California, Illinois, Hawaii, Maryland, New Jersey, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and the District of Columbia.

The compact is pending in Minnesota and New York. In New York it has already passed the lower chamber, and it seems to have little resistance in it's journey to becoming law.

My second question is... what is the path of least resistance for the compact?

Despite the fact that most Republicans support popular vote, the Compact seems to receive significant opposition from the Republican states.

Technically, the Compact only needs five more states, New York, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Texas, and Florida, but Texas and possibly Ohio look to be problems in this chain of states.

This is my suggestion (it adds up to 270 EVs), but please, point out mistakes or weak links in the map.

What do you guys think is the path of least resistance?

[greenforest32]

I'm kind of mixed: optimistic in the sense that I don't think we'll still be using the Electoral College in 2050+ but pessimistic in that I don't think the compact will succeed soon. If I had to guess, I'd say the 2020s is the earliest it would happen if there's no 2000-like situation in 2016. There's too many Democratic-controlled states going slow and too many Republicans blocking it in D+ states like Wisconsin or Pennsylvania for it to happen in the 2010s. I think the 2020s could expand the map with immigration reform, a potential supreme court decision overturning felony disenfranchisement laws, and shifting demographics. Those things could really shift the balance of power in states like Arizona, Georgia, Florida, etc which can offset Wisconsin or Pennsylvania or Ohio.

I think your map of least resistance is pretty good but I wonder about Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania doesn't have initiatives and Republicans have a pretty good lock on the PA state legislature and, when it comes to winning the Presidency, Pennsylvania is a top state for Republicans to go after so I don't think you'd see consensus for joining the compact there. After all, they were the first people floating that allocating EVs by (gerrymandered) congressional district idea back in 2011-2012. They seem keen to exploit Pennsylvania's relative position.

Things are pretty fluid but there is a path where Pennsylvania (20EV) could be swapped for say Maine (4EV-LePage loses reelection in 2014?), New Mexico (5EV-Martinez is picked as 2016 Republican VP?), Nevada (6EV-Sandoval runs for Senate in 2016?) and... damn it's looking pretty tough from there considering Gov. Branstad looks safe in Iowa and the gerrymander in Virginia. Maybe Arizona (11EV) through an initiative? West Virginia Democrats could really save the day if they joined the compact in 2014 while they still have a D-trifecta...

[Mr. Morden]

In which states could the NPV be passed by referendum, without any involvement from the state legislature?

[greenforest32]

In which states could the NPV be passed by referendum, without any involvement from the state legislature?

24 states have initiatives so voters in those states could pass the measure directly without going through the state legislature.

Illinois, Mississippi, and Florida would only have the option of constitutional initiatives (they don't have statutory initiatives) which seems kind of awkward and that also makes it tougher for Florida as initiatives that amend the Florida state constitution now need a 3/5 super-majority to pass instead of a simple majority thanks to a 2006 ballot measure there.

[muon2]

In which states could the NPV be passed by referendum, without any involvement from the state legislature?

24 states have initiatives so voters in those states could pass the measure directly without going through the state legislature.

Illinois, Mississippi, and Florida would only have the option of constitutional initiatives (they don't have statutory initiatives) which seems kind of awkward and that also makes it tougher for Florida as initiatives that amend the Florida state constitution now need a 3/5 super-majority to pass instead of a simple majority thanks to a 2006 ballot measure there.

IL constitutional initiatives only may be used to affect the structure and procedure of the legislature. Not that it matters for this issue since the NPVIC is law.

[Nichlemn]

Why the Republican opposition? Is it all just Bush 2000 making Republicans think the EC advantages them? Status quo conservatism? Because for the last three Presidential elections, the EC has favoured Democrats, though obviously it never decided the election.

[eric82oslo]

Why the Republican opposition? Is it all just Bush 2000 making Republicans think the EC advantages them? Status quo conservatism? Because for the last three Presidential elections, the EC has favoured Democrats, though obviously it never decided the election.

This could be momentarily though. We shouldn't forget that the Constitution and the way each state, small or big, gets two Senators each, greatly favours Republicans, as most states with tiny populations happen to be rural and thus more or less heavily Republican-leaning. If all small and more than half of the medium-sized states start voting Republican, including Vermont, Maine, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Hawaii, Washington D.C. and so on, while all big states (those with 20 EVs or more) start voting Democratic, including Texas - which is extremely unlikely, but just as a hypothesis - then I'm pretty sure that this scenario would favour Republicans, simply cause small states have a lot more electoral power per inhabitant than big states. It's highly undemocratic of course, yet it is the effect of the US being a federal state, where each of the 50 states are almost to be regarded as semi-independent. In fact, how the US works politically and how the EU works, isn't all that different at present.