OH-PPP: Kasich trailing

[Miles]

Report.

FitzGerald (D)- 38%
Kasich (R)- 35%

[krazen1211]

Junk poll!

[windjammer]

I don't understand. I thought Kasich was leading.

[free my dawg]

I'm skeptical.

[Tender Branson]

Junk poll!

No, dominating ...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Looking good.

[Miles]

I'm not sure I buy this but the other downballot matchups seem realistic.

[Miles]

New Poll: Ohio Governor by Public Policy Polling on 2013-08-19

Summary: D: 38%, R: 35%, U: 27%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Kevin]

This doesn't make sense as Kasich has been rebounding in popularity for sometime now.

This far out though any poll prob isn't an accurate reading because voters haven't started paying any attention to the election yet.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I'm not sure I buy this but the other downballot matchups seem realistic.

I'm actually pretty skeptical about the Secretary of State numbers (although Fitzgerald is probably about where Kasich was at this point in 2009, i.e. trailing by a bit).  I have a hard time believing it will be nearly that close (though I hope I am wrong).

[Maxwell]

This contradicts every other poll. I doubt this is accurate.

[opebo]

Junk poll!

Its PPP!

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

It was a Quinnipiac Poll that gave Kasich such a huge lead. But I'll wait for someone else to poll here. PPP is the Gold Standard, but even they give an outlier every time and again.

[Gass3268]

Dominating!

[publicunofficial]

Quinnipac's poll was a bit to R-leaning, and this poll seems to oversample Democrats a bit. The real answer is probably somewhere in between the two polls.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Junk poll!

Exactly.  Then again, most of PPP's early polls are.

[windjammer]

Junk poll!

Exactly.  Then again, most of PPP's early polls are.

Well, I will look the first PPP poll in every possible race in 2012:

-Arizona: Public Policy Polling   November 17–20, 2011   500   ± 4.4%   40% (R)   36% (D)

-Connecticut: Public Policy Polling   March 17–20, 2011   822   ± 3.4%   54%(D)   38%(R)

-Florida: Public Policy Polling   October 9–10, 2010   448   ± 4.6%   42%(D)   33% (R)

-Hawai: Public Policy Polling   March 24–27, 2011   898   ± 3.3%   52% (D)   40% (R)

-Massachussey: Public Policy Polling   June 2 – 5, 2011   957   Rv   ± 3.2%   47%(R)   32% (D)

-Michigan: Public Policy Polling   December 3–6, 2010   1,224   ± 2.8%   45% (D)    44%   (R)

-Minnesota: Public Policy Polling   May 31–June 3, 2012   973   ± 3.1%   55% (D)   29% (R)

-Missouri: Public Policy Polling   March 3–6, 2011   612   ± 4.0%   45% (D)   44% (R)

-Montana: Public Policy Polling   November 10–13, 2010   1,176   ± 2.9%   46% (D)   48% (R)

-Nebraska: Public Policy Polling   March 22–25, 2012   1,028   ± 3.1%   38% (D)   48% (R)

-Nevada: Public Policy Polling   January 3–5, 2011   932   ± 3.2%   51% (R)   38% (D)

-New  Jersey: Public Policy Polling   July 15–18, 2011   480   ± 4.5%   48%(D) 29%(R)

-New Mexico: Public Policy Polling   February 4–6, 2011   545   ± 4.2%   50% (D)    39% (R)

-Ohio: Public Policy Polling   March 10–13, 2011   559   ± 4.1%   48% (D)   32%   (R)

-Pennsylvania: Public Policy Polling   November 17–20, 2011   500   ± 4.4%   48% (D)   32% (R)

-Virginia: Public Policy Polling   November 10–13, 2010   551   ± 4.2%   50% (D)   44% (R)

-Washington: Public Policy Polling   February 16–19, 2012   1,264   ± 2.76%   51% (D)   36% (R)

-West Virginia: Public Policy Polling   January 20–23, 2011   1,105   ± 2.9%   60%(D)   31%(R)

-Wisconsin: Public Policy Polling   May 19–22, 2011   1,636   ± 2.4%   44%   (D) 45% (R)



Sorry oldiesfreak, then again you're wrong. I honestly think you're a nice guy, but you say many wrong things...

[JerryArkansas]

This is a outlier poll, most show him ahead, so I believe he is ahead, PPP always have's one for every 30 to 40 done.  They should have sampled independent more and dem/ rep less.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This isn't turning out to be 2010 either. The GOP haven't made up any ground on Obama voters and since coming into congress they want to repeal obamacare. We need people like Fitzgerald to work with the prez. Preventive care should be optional but people like the expansion of Medicaid and Medicare.

[Mr. Morden]

It was a Quinnipiac Poll that gave Kasich such a huge lead. But I'll wait for someone else to poll here. PPP is the Gold Standard, but even they give an outlier every time and again.

What makes PPP the gold standard?  In the presidential race for example:



Was their track record on statewide races significantly better?

[ElectionsGuy]

Of course we have to trust PPP so this race is now a toss-up.

[free my dawg]

Junk poll!

Exactly.  Then again, most of PPP's early polls are.

Of course we have to trust PPP so this race is now a toss-up.

You two really are divorced from reality, aren't you?

[TJ in Oregon]

So far in this race we have two recent datapoints:

1. Quinnipiac, which has Kasich up by 14
2. PPP, which has FitzGerald up by 3

This poll diverges enough from the previous set that I think we might want to wait for another poll to confirm what is happening here before jumping to conclusions. While I am skeptical I may be coming up with excuses to junk this simply because I don't like its result, I am rather skeptical of a poll at 38-35. I mean, what, does Ross Perot have 20%?

[Rocky Rockefeller]

I don't think I believe these results quite yet, PPP is good, but even they make mistakes.

[free my dawg]

So far in this race we have two recent datapoints:

1. Quinnipiac, which has Kasich up by 14
2. PPP, which has FitzGerald up by 3

This poll diverges enough from the previous set that I think we might want to wait for another poll to confirm what is happening here before jumping to conclusions. While I am skeptical I may be coming up with excuses to junk this simply because I don't like its result, I am rather skeptical of a poll at 38-35. I mean, what, does Ross Perot have 20%?

That's only another path down the rabbit hole. That and Kasich's done relatively nothing to fall so quickly. I'm guessing Kasich is leading by about 3-7 points.