LA-PPP: Landrieu up 10

[DrScholl]

Landrieu is a good fit for the state, period and she has the ability to hold the base, as well as get crossover support, which is very rare. Plus, Louisiana trended Democratic in 2012, going R+11 down from R+13 in 2008, that means if she can have a good turnout operation, her floor is more elevated.

[DrScholl]

Landrieu is a good fit for the state, period and she has the ability to hold the base, as well as get crossover support, which is very rare.

This is true, but Landrieu has the support of 23% of Republicans in this poll -- and she's still barely skimming the runoff line. So all Cassidy has to do to win is appeal to Republicans -- an easier task than other Republican challengers.

Plus, Louisiana trended Democratic in 2012, going R+11 down from R+13 in 2008, that means if she can have a good turnout operation, her floor is more elevated.

You're ignoring the elephant in the room, though -- R+11 is a lot.

R+11 is still less than R+13 and in this particular race, and in this particular race, the state will before more like R+5 to R+7, since ancestral Democratic support comes into the equation. Cassidy could close the gap by appealing to Republicans, but much of what is considered Republican support in the state isn't opposed to supporting a Democrat under certain circumstances, so it's not necessarily as simple as that.

[DrScholl]

Landrieu is a good fit for the state, period and she has the ability to hold the base, as well as get crossover support, which is very rare.

This is true, but Landrieu has the support of 23% of Republicans in this poll -- and she's still barely skimming the runoff line. So all Cassidy has to do to win is appeal to Republicans -- an easier task than other Republican challengers.

Plus, Louisiana trended Democratic in 2012, going R+11 down from R+13 in 2008, that means if she can have a good turnout operation, her floor is more elevated.

You're ignoring the elephant in the room, though -- R+11 is a lot.

R+11 is still less than R+13 and in this particular race, and in this particular race, the state will before more like R+5 to R+7, since ancestral Democratic support comes into the equation.

Even with the handwavium you've added it's still quite a bit.

Cassidy could close the gap by appealing to Republicans, but much of what is considered Republican support in the state isn't opposed to supporting a Democrat under certain circumstances, so it's not necessarily as simple as that.

Well, I would presume people who vote Democratic in local races wouldn't self-identify as Republican (the way there are more self-identified Democrats than Republicans in Oklahoma, for instance). We're talking about normally straight-ticket voters.

It appears this "hand waving" phrase is a new favorite of Republicans, whatever that means. I'm just point out that any trend is beneficial to Landrieu and that she will be dealing with an electorate that is much different than the presidential one, if she gets the right turnout out. I'm not guaranteeing that she'll win, but she has a lot of that could work in her favor. Now most ancestral Democrats probably wouldn't identify as Republican, but they still account for a big amount of what the GOP gets in vote margin in the state, Cassidy has to win votes like that too, not just self-identified Republicans. In 2008, Landrieu ran many points ahead of Obama in suburban New Orleans, which is where most self-identified Republicans are at, so she has a chance at maintaining some Republican support.