Czech parliamentary election 2013

[ferenc_szombat]

The poll released today - TNS Aisa

[Tender Branson]

In 2010, the polls overestimated the Social Democrats by 4-6% and the Communists by 2-3%.

TOP09 was underestimated by 5%.

Considering the fact that polls are quite bad, do you think ANO might finish 1st ?

[ferenc_szombat]

In 2010, the polls overestimated the Social Democrats by 4-6% and the Communists by 2-3%.

TOP09 was underestimated by 5%.

Considering the fact that polls are quite bad, do you think ANO might finish 1st ?

If it will happen, I would emigrate. I think ANO is overestimated and SocDem underestimated - CSSD is making big mobilization now and amount of protest voters have some limitation (the real number for ANO party is the result of Public Affairs in 2010 - 10%, I think).

[ferenc_szombat]

In reaction of ANO party gaining, there rise voices for grand coalition from ODS and TOP09 (even Karel Schwanzenberg said that he would construct a government with CSSD). The Slovakian newspapers Sme found some documents, which shows Andrej Babis informing the communist secret police about his colleagues in the years before 1989. There is no reaction in Czech medias.

[Hifly]

If it will happen, I would emigrate.

Where would you emigrate to?

[ferenc_szombat]

If it will happen, I would emigrate.

Where would you emigrate to?

To Vienna, traditional Czech place to emigrate to. Still big Czech community there, great standard of living, interesting previous residents (Hitler, Stalin, Freud,...). And stable political culture, for this moment...

Or to New Zealand and breed the sheep.

[Leftbehind]

Hopefully you're right.

[Lief 🗽]

David Černý apparently none too happy with the current state of Czech politics (but what else is new)?



http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-24607870

[ferenc_szombat]

It's a result time! Hold on to your hat!

http://www.rozhlas.cz/zpravy/volby_vysledky

[freek]

Polls have closed.

First results (5.7% counted):

CSSD 22.2%
KSCM 18.1%
ANO 17.9%
TOP09 8.9%
KDU-CSL 7.9%
Usvit 7.7%
ODS 6.3%
Pirate 2.4%
SZ 2.1%
Svobodni 2.0%
SPOZ 1.8%
All others below 1%

http://www.novinky.cz/volby/snemovna-2013?region=0

[freek]

Counting is fast. 12.7% already. ANO has overtaken KSCM.

The result in seats:
CSSD 54
ANO 45
KSCM 41
TOP09 19
Usvit 17
KDU-CSL 14
ODS 10

[minionofmidas]

In the middle of the day!?

[freek]

In the middle of the day!?

Polls were open yesterday 1400 - 2200 and today 0800 - 1400.

[minionofmidas]

Ah, two day voting like in Italy of yore (where IIRC it was about 12 hours on saturday and six hours on sunday morning). Yes, I like that.

I note from the link that the commie stronghold regions in the north are being won by ANO (in close three ways with CSSD and KSCM) and they're also ahead of Social Democrats (but behind TOP09) in Prague.

[minionofmidas]

Prague is also barely in - either these are very bourgeois parts of the city or TOP09 should improve nationally.

[freek]

40% counted

CSSD 54
ANO 45
KSCM 40
TOP09 22
Usvit 13
KDU-CSL 13
ODS 13

[minionofmidas]

45%, Prague still at 11%. Rural Southern Bohemia (CSSD country) is ~55-60% counted, both Northern Bohemia (ANO and Communists) and Moravia (CSSD) at ~40-50%.

[minionofmidas]

63%, TOP09 (shouldn't they be calling themselves TOP13 this year? ) have inched over the ten percent line. ANO creeping closer to CSSD but will not catch them.

[minionofmidas]

Places 5 to 7 are still up in the air, though. (Also, will ANO end up closer to CSSD than KSCM? Presumably. But they aren't there yet.)

[minionofmidas]

79% counted, 21.3 - 18.7 - 15.7 - 10.8 - ODS 7.3, having overtaken Usvít 7.2 - KDU-CSL 6.9.

SPOZ, by the way, really tanked in this campaign, at 1.6%. 12% for parties below the threshold.

[minionofmidas]

95% in, lead down to just over two points.

[freek]

95% counted

CSSD 50
ANO 47
KSCM 35
TOP09 26
ODS 16
KDU-CSL 14
Usvit 12

[minionofmidas]

Are seats being distributed district-by-district or what? For Usvit is still ahead of KDU-CSL in votes.

[freek]

Are seats being distributed district-by-district or what? For Usvit is still ahead of KDU-CSL in votes.

Yes, by district, using D'Hondt, with a 5% threshold on the national level.

I can't find how the total number of seats per district is determined; if this is a fixed number based on the population of the district, or that it is based on the number of votes cast in the district.

[FredLindq]

As I thought CSSD and KSCM falls short of a majority. Not even 100 seats with USVIT. CSSD, ODS and TOP get just 92 so they need KDU as well to keep ANO out. In paper there is a centreright majority that ANO ca make something out.