VA-Quinnipiac: McAuliffe's lead expands to 6

[Miles]

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[© tweed]

wrecks your faith in the human race, doesn't it.

[publicunofficial]

wrecks your faith in the human race, doesn't it.

If Cuccinelli was better choice than McAulife, then I would agree.

[Beet]

Really couldn't care less who wins this.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

wrecks your faith in the human race, doesn't it.

If Cuccinelli was better choice than McAulife, then I would agree.

'Terry McAuliffe versus Ken Cuccinelli' does, in fact, wreck my faith in the human race a bit.

[Miles]

McAuliffe's internal only shows him up by 4.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Really couldn't care less who wins this.

Even though McAuliffe is a pretty terrible candidate who won't make a particularly good governor, and worse yet, he was one of the leading figures in the DLC, a Cuccinelli loss will be spun out in the media as a defeat for the Tea Party, plus it'll put the brakes on the career on one of the Far Right's rising stars. Therefore, I will be voting enthusiastically for McAuliffe.

[PolitiJunkie]

Best bet is that McAuliffe wins by 4-7, does an underwhelming but not horrendous job, Bill Bolling wins heavily in 2017, and McAuliffe ends up as Hillary's AG once his term is up.

[Skill and Chance]

Best bet is that McAuliffe wins by 4-7, does an underwhelming but not horrendous job, Bill Bolling wins heavily in 2017, and McAuliffe ends up as Hillary's AG once his term is up.

Hmmm... I wonder if Bolling would run as an R or an I?  Mark Warner is said to be looking for a graceful exit from the Senate, so I could easily see him running if he isn't president or vice president by 2017.   And he would definitely clear the field of serious opposition.  Also, I wonder if we will ever hear from Perriello again? 

2017 is the election that really matters in VA, because of 2021 redistricting.  If Democrats aspire to take full control of the state in the 2020's, they need to either win that election or take back the State Senate by 2019 (currently 20R-20D with 1 McCain-Romney D, 1 2X Obama R and 2 Obama-Romney district R's).  If a Democrat or a truly Independent Bolling is governor, everything goes to court, which is probably the best outcome for D's because then they can contest the HoD going forward.  If Dems have the state senate and Republicans have the HoD at the next redistricting, then we probably have an NY/KY situation where they pass each other's gerrymanders and lock in split legislative control for decades.

This is another reason why neither party seems to be particularly invested in their Gov candidates this year.  Down-ballot does matter a bit more, because of the possibility that Cuccinelli and Northam both win (which flips the state senate and blocks most of Cuccinelli's agenda- provided that D's hold Northam's seat).

 

[krazen1211]

Best bet is that McAuliffe wins by 4-7, does an underwhelming but not horrendous job, Bill Bolling wins heavily in 2017, and McAuliffe ends up as Hillary's AG once his term is up.

Hmmm... I wonder if Bolling would run as an R or an I?  Mark Warner is said to be looking for a graceful exit from the Senate, so I could easily see him running if he isn't president or vice president by 2017.   And he would definitely clear the field of serious opposition.  Also, I wonder if we will ever hear from Perriello again? 

2017 is the election that really matters in VA, because of 2021 redistricting.  If Democrats aspire to take full control of the state in the 2020's, they need to either win that election or take back the State Senate by 2019 (currently 20R-20D with 1 McCain-Romney D, 1 2X Obama R and 2 Obama-Romney district R's).  If a Democrat or a truly Independent Bolling is governor, everything goes to court, which is probably the best outcome for D's because then they can contest the HoD going forward.  If Dems have the state senate and Republicans have the HoD at the next redistricting, then we probably have an NY/KY situation where they pass each other's gerrymanders and lock in split legislative control for decades.

This is another reason why neither party seems to be particularly invested in their Gov candidates this year.  Down-ballot does matter a bit more, because of the possibility that Cuccinelli and Northam both win (which flips the state senate and blocks most of Cuccinelli's agenda- provided that D's hold Northam's seat).

 

For Congressional redistricting, whomever wins in 2021 can simply redraw fresh Congressional districts, including a possible 12th district.

[Gass3268]

Best bet is that McAuliffe wins by 4-7, does an underwhelming but not horrendous job, Bill Bolling wins heavily in 2017, and McAuliffe ends up as Hillary's AG once his term is up.

Hmmm... I wonder if Bolling would run as an R or an I?  Mark Warner is said to be looking for a graceful exit from the Senate, so I could easily see him running if he isn't president or vice president by 2017.   And he would definitely clear the field of serious opposition.  Also, I wonder if we will ever hear from Perriello again? 

2017 is the election that really matters in VA, because of 2021 redistricting.  If Democrats aspire to take full control of the state in the 2020's, they need to either win that election or take back the State Senate by 2019 (currently 20R-20D with 1 McCain-Romney D, 1 2X Obama R and 2 Obama-Romney district R's).  If a Democrat or a truly Independent Bolling is governor, everything goes to court, which is probably the best outcome for D's because then they can contest the HoD going forward.  If Dems have the state senate and Republicans have the HoD at the next redistricting, then we probably have an NY/KY situation where they pass each other's gerrymanders and lock in split legislative control for decades.

This is another reason why neither party seems to be particularly invested in their Gov candidates this year.  Down-ballot does matter a bit more, because of the possibility that Cuccinelli and Northam both win (which flips the state senate and blocks most of Cuccinelli's agenda- provided that D's hold Northam's seat).

 

For Congressional redistricting, whomever wins in 2021 can simply redraw fresh Congressional districts, including a possible 12th district.

With the current trends in Virginia, I would have to bet that the State Senate will be controlled by Democrats by then.

[Skill and Chance]

Best bet is that McAuliffe wins by 4-7, does an underwhelming but not horrendous job, Bill Bolling wins heavily in 2017, and McAuliffe ends up as Hillary's AG once his term is up.

Hmmm... I wonder if Bolling would run as an R or an I?  Mark Warner is said to be looking for a graceful exit from the Senate, so I could easily see him running if he isn't president or vice president by 2017.   And he would definitely clear the field of serious opposition.  Also, I wonder if we will ever hear from Perriello again? 

2017 is the election that really matters in VA, because of 2021 redistricting.  If Democrats aspire to take full control of the state in the 2020's, they need to either win that election or take back the State Senate by 2019 (currently 20R-20D with 1 McCain-Romney D, 1 2X Obama R and 2 Obama-Romney district R's).  If a Democrat or a truly Independent Bolling is governor, everything goes to court, which is probably the best outcome for D's because then they can contest the HoD going forward.  If Dems have the state senate and Republicans have the HoD at the next redistricting, then we probably have an NY/KY situation where they pass each other's gerrymanders and lock in split legislative control for decades.

This is another reason why neither party seems to be particularly invested in their Gov candidates this year.  Down-ballot does matter a bit more, because of the possibility that Cuccinelli and Northam both win (which flips the state senate and blocks most of Cuccinelli's agenda- provided that D's hold Northam's seat).

 

For Congressional redistricting, whomever wins in 2021 can simply redraw fresh Congressional districts, including a possible 12th district.

With the current trends in Virginia, I would have to bet that the State Senate will be controlled by Democrats by then.

Yes, but it could be theDemocrats holding out for a trifecta in 2021-22 if they have the state senate and the state has moved left far enough that that can expect to take the HoD on a court map.  That would be quite the turnabout

[krazen1211]

Best bet is that McAuliffe wins by 4-7, does an underwhelming but not horrendous job, Bill Bolling wins heavily in 2017, and McAuliffe ends up as Hillary's AG once his term is up.

Hmmm... I wonder if Bolling would run as an R or an I?  Mark Warner is said to be looking for a graceful exit from the Senate, so I could easily see him running if he isn't president or vice president by 2017.   And he would definitely clear the field of serious opposition.  Also, I wonder if we will ever hear from Perriello again? 

2017 is the election that really matters in VA, because of 2021 redistricting.  If Democrats aspire to take full control of the state in the 2020's, they need to either win that election or take back the State Senate by 2019 (currently 20R-20D with 1 McCain-Romney D, 1 2X Obama R and 2 Obama-Romney district R's).  If a Democrat or a truly Independent Bolling is governor, everything goes to court, which is probably the best outcome for D's because then they can contest the HoD going forward.  If Dems have the state senate and Republicans have the HoD at the next redistricting, then we probably have an NY/KY situation where they pass each other's gerrymanders and lock in split legislative control for decades.

This is another reason why neither party seems to be particularly invested in their Gov candidates this year.  Down-ballot does matter a bit more, because of the possibility that Cuccinelli and Northam both win (which flips the state senate and blocks most of Cuccinelli's agenda- provided that D's hold Northam's seat).

 

For Congressional redistricting, whomever wins in 2021 can simply redraw fresh Congressional districts, including a possible 12th district.

With the current trends in Virginia, I would have to bet that the State Senate will be controlled by Democrats by then.

That's an interesting theory, as their own vicious gerrymander was broken in 2011.

[Gass3268]

Best bet is that McAuliffe wins by 4-7, does an underwhelming but not horrendous job, Bill Bolling wins heavily in 2017, and McAuliffe ends up as Hillary's AG once his term is up.

Hmmm... I wonder if Bolling would run as an R or an I?  Mark Warner is said to be looking for a graceful exit from the Senate, so I could easily see him running if he isn't president or vice president by 2017.   And he would definitely clear the field of serious opposition.  Also, I wonder if we will ever hear from Perriello again? 

2017 is the election that really matters in VA, because of 2021 redistricting.  If Democrats aspire to take full control of the state in the 2020's, they need to either win that election or take back the State Senate by 2019 (currently 20R-20D with 1 McCain-Romney D, 1 2X Obama R and 2 Obama-Romney district R's).  If a Democrat or a truly Independent Bolling is governor, everything goes to court, which is probably the best outcome for D's because then they can contest the HoD going forward.  If Dems have the state senate and Republicans have the HoD at the next redistricting, then we probably have an NY/KY situation where they pass each other's gerrymanders and lock in split legislative control for decades.

This is another reason why neither party seems to be particularly invested in their Gov candidates this year.  Down-ballot does matter a bit more, because of the possibility that Cuccinelli and Northam both win (which flips the state senate and blocks most of Cuccinelli's agenda- provided that D's hold Northam's seat).

 

For Congressional redistricting, whomever wins in 2021 can simply redraw fresh Congressional districts, including a possible 12th district.

With the current trends in Virginia, I would have to bet that the State Senate will be controlled by Democrats by then.

Yes, but it could be theDemocrats holding out for a trifecta in 2021-22 if they have the state senate and the state has moved left far enough that that can expect to take the HoD on a court map.  That would be quite the turnabout

That could be possible with the Dem trends and population growth in the DC Metro Area. 

[Skill and Chance]

Best bet is that McAuliffe wins by 4-7, does an underwhelming but not horrendous job, Bill Bolling wins heavily in 2017, and McAuliffe ends up as Hillary's AG once his term is up.

Hmmm... I wonder if Bolling would run as an R or an I?  Mark Warner is said to be looking for a graceful exit from the Senate, so I could easily see him running if he isn't president or vice president by 2017.   And he would definitely clear the field of serious opposition.  Also, I wonder if we will ever hear from Perriello again? 

2017 is the election that really matters in VA, because of 2021 redistricting.  If Democrats aspire to take full control of the state in the 2020's, they need to either win that election or take back the State Senate by 2019 (currently 20R-20D with 1 McCain-Romney D, 1 2X Obama R and 2 Obama-Romney district R's).  If a Democrat or a truly Independent Bolling is governor, everything goes to court, which is probably the best outcome for D's because then they can contest the HoD going forward.  If Dems have the state senate and Republicans have the HoD at the next redistricting, then we probably have an NY/KY situation where they pass each other's gerrymanders and lock in split legislative control for decades.

This is another reason why neither party seems to be particularly invested in their Gov candidates this year.  Down-ballot does matter a bit more, because of the possibility that Cuccinelli and Northam both win (which flips the state senate and blocks most of Cuccinelli's agenda- provided that D's hold Northam's seat).

 

For Congressional redistricting, whomever wins in 2021 can simply redraw fresh Congressional districts, including a possible 12th district.

With the current trends in Virginia, I would have to bet that the State Senate will be controlled by Democrats by then.

That's an interesting theory, as their own vicious gerrymander was broken in 2011.

They only lost Romney seats in 2011. Since when does making 19 of 40 seats more D than the nation = a D gerrymander?

[krazen1211]

They only lost Romney seats in 2011. Since when does making 19 of 40 seats more D than the nation = a D gerrymander?

A neutral redistricting party, as well as the Republican members of the Senate, released a plan with 6 districts for blacks. The Democrats instead drew 5 districts for blacks and cracked the remainder to elect white liberals.

Democrats cannot avoid the law, which currently includes 1 man 1 vote and of course section 2 of the Voting Rights Act.

The Democrats of course claimed all of the seats close to and bordering Washington DC already.

In return the House of Delegates is of course a Republican gerrymander.

[IceSpear]

Despite being a hard-core Democrat, if I lived in Virginia I'd probably vote for the libertarian Robert Sarvis. Obviously Cuccinelli is a nonstarter, but McAuliffe is an awful candidate. If I did end up voting for him it would require a lot of nose holding.

[Badger]

They only lost Romney seats in 2011. Since when does making 19 of 40 seats more D than the nation = a D gerrymander?

A neutral redistricting party, as well as the Republican members of the Senate, released a plan with 6 districts for blacks. The Democrats instead drew 5 districts for blacks and cracked the remainder to elect white liberals.

Democrats cannot avoid the law, which currently includes 1 man 1 vote and of course section 2 of the Voting Rights Act.

The Democrats of course claimed all of the seats close to and bordering Washington DC already.

In return the House of Delegates is of course a Republican gerrymander.

You failed to answer the question.

[krazen1211]

They only lost Romney seats in 2011. Since when does making 19 of 40 seats more D than the nation = a D gerrymander?

A neutral redistricting party, as well as the Republican members of the Senate, released a plan with 6 districts for blacks. The Democrats instead drew 5 districts for blacks and cracked the remainder to elect white liberals.

Democrats cannot avoid the law, which currently includes 1 man 1 vote and of course section 2 of the Voting Rights Act.

The Democrats of course claimed all of the seats close to and bordering Washington DC already.

In return the House of Delegates is of course a Republican gerrymander.

You failed to answer the question.

I suggest, then, Mr. Badger, that you use the smell test.

The Virginia Senate map was passed on a highly partisan vote. The Virginia House of Delegate and Congressional maps were passed with substantial votes from both parties. Influential Congressman Gerry Connolly and others were crucial to passing the congressional map. The lack of any support from the minority party for the Senate map is highly indicative of a Democrats vicious gerrymander. There are certainly 2 ways of doing business.


It turns out the voters did not care and restored a Republican majority in the Virginia Senate as they broke the vicious gerrymander.

[Badger]

They only lost Romney seats in 2011. Since when does making 19 of 40 seats more D than the nation = a D gerrymander?

A neutral redistricting party, as well as the Republican members of the Senate, released a plan with 6 districts for blacks. The Democrats instead drew 5 districts for blacks and cracked the remainder to elect white liberals.

Democrats cannot avoid the law, which currently includes 1 man 1 vote and of course section 2 of the Voting Rights Act.

The Democrats of course claimed all of the seats close to and bordering Washington DC already.

In return the House of Delegates is of course a Republican gerrymander.

You failed to answer the question.

I suggest, then, Mr. Badger, that you use the smell test.

The Virginia Senate map was passed on a highly partisan vote. The Virginia House of Delegate and Congressional maps were passed with substantial votes from both parties. Influential Congressman Gerry Connolly and others were crucial to passing the congressional map. The lack of any support from the minority party for the Senate map is highly indicative of a Democrats vicious gerrymander. There are certainly 2 ways of doing business.


It turns out the voters did not care and restored a Republican majority in the Virginia Senate as they broke the vicious gerrymander.

You failed to answer the question. Again.

[krazen1211]

They only lost Romney seats in 2011. Since when does making 19 of 40 seats more D than the nation = a D gerrymander?

A neutral redistricting party, as well as the Republican members of the Senate, released a plan with 6 districts for blacks. The Democrats instead drew 5 districts for blacks and cracked the remainder to elect white liberals.

Democrats cannot avoid the law, which currently includes 1 man 1 vote and of course section 2 of the Voting Rights Act.

The Democrats of course claimed all of the seats close to and bordering Washington DC already.

In return the House of Delegates is of course a Republican gerrymander.

You failed to answer the question.

I suggest, then, Mr. Badger, that you use the smell test.

The Virginia Senate map was passed on a highly partisan vote. The Virginia House of Delegate and Congressional maps were passed with substantial votes from both parties. Influential Congressman Gerry Connolly and others were crucial to passing the congressional map. The lack of any support from the minority party for the Senate map is highly indicative of a Democrats vicious gerrymander. There are certainly 2 ways of doing business.


It turns out the voters did not care and restored a Republican majority in the Virginia Senate as they broke the vicious gerrymander.

You failed to answer the question. Again.

An answer was provided. If you don't care about facts, that is your deal.

[Landslide Lyndon]

They only lost Romney seats in 2011. Since when does making 19 of 40 seats more D than the nation = a D gerrymander?

A neutral redistricting party, as well as the Republican members of the Senate, released a plan with 6 districts for blacks. The Democrats instead drew 5 districts for blacks and cracked the remainder to elect white liberals.

Democrats cannot avoid the law, which currently includes 1 man 1 vote and of course section 2 of the Voting Rights Act.

The Democrats of course claimed all of the seats close to and bordering Washington DC already.

In return the House of Delegates is of course a Republican gerrymander.

You failed to answer the question.

I suggest, then, Mr. Badger, that you use the smell test.

The Virginia Senate map was passed on a highly partisan vote. The Virginia House of Delegate and Congressional maps were passed with substantial votes from both parties. Influential Congressman Gerry Connolly and others were crucial to passing the congressional map. The lack of any support from the minority party for the Senate map is highly indicative of a Democrats vicious gerrymander. There are certainly 2 ways of doing business.


It turns out the voters did not care and restored a Republican majority in the Virginia Senate as they broke the vicious gerrymander.

You failed to answer the question. Again.

Krazey is a walking, talking fail.

[Beet]

Really couldn't care less who wins this.

Even though McAuliffe is a pretty terrible candidate who won't make a particularly good governor, and worse yet, he was one of the leading figures in the DLC, a Cuccinelli loss will be spun out in the media as a defeat for the Tea Party, plus it'll put the brakes on the career on one of the Far Right's rising stars. Therefore, I will be voting enthusiastically for McAuliffe.

I don't care about his participation in the DLC. However, I don't want him to win.

First, I don't want the media to spin that the Tea Party is losing. What good would that do? I want them to continue to be overconfident and hand us the Senate back in 2014.
Second, I don't care if Cuccinelli is a rising star for much the same reasons.
Third, I have serious reservations about McAuliffe's business dealings- I think there's more there that will come out, and if he gets elected governor it will come out during his governorship. That's going to be bad for the Democratic brand in the state.
I'm not worried about Cuccinelli as long as the Democrats have 20 seats in the state Senate and the Lieutenant Governorship (which we'll have).

I think McAuliffe- despite his connections to the Clintons who I generally like- represents what's wrong with this party and if he lost it would nudge the party away from that. His whole schtick is raising money from rich, socially liberal business interests. So I think I'll be voting for the Libertarian candidate this time as a protest vote. Not that it matters.

[illegaloperation]

Really couldn't care less who wins this.

Even though McAuliffe is a pretty terrible candidate who won't make a particularly good governor, and worse yet, he was one of the leading figures in the DLC, a Cuccinelli loss will be spun out in the media as a defeat for the Tea Party, plus it'll put the brakes on the career on one of the Far Right's rising stars. Therefore, I will be voting enthusiastically for McAuliffe.

I don't care about his participation in the DLC. However, I don't want him to win.

First, I don't want the media to spin that the Tea Party is losing. What good would that do? I want them to continue to be overconfident and hand us the Senate back in 2014.
Second, I don't care if Cuccinelli is a rising star for much the same reasons.
Third, I have serious reservations about McAuliffe's business dealings- I think there's more there that will come out, and if he gets elected governor it will come out during his governorship. That's going to be bad for the Democratic brand in the state.
I'm not worried about Cuccinelli as long as the Democrats have 20 seats in the state Senate and the Lieutenant Governorship (which we'll have).

I think McAuliffe- despite his connections to the Clintons who I generally like- represents what's wrong with this party and if he lost it would nudge the party away from that. His whole schtick is raising money from rich, socially liberal business interests. So I think I'll be voting for the Libertarian candidate this time as a protest vote. Not that it matters.

You should be concern. Hint: just look over you Southern border.

[Beet]

It doesn't matter... McAuliffe is going to win anyway.