LA-PPP: Hillary +7 on Jindal, competitive with other Rs

[Mr. Morden]

Funny that Christie does worse than the others. Perhaps he's a type to do worse in the Pub states (especially the South) and better in the Northeast/Great Lakes/West Coast?

That is what the polls suggest, yes.  Of course, it's early, and things will change.  But if you took all the current polling at face value, then Christie vs. Clinton would see most of the Democratic states trend Republican and the Republican states trend Democrat, creating many more swing states than there have been in recent elections.

[Mr. Morden]

Could you imagine the swing state map for 2016 if it's Christie vs. Clinton?

If it's close nationally, it has the potential to be the most fun close election we've had in quite a while.  It wouldn't be able to match 1976 though.....when there were 20 states where the margin was within 5 points (including CA, NY, PA, IL, and TX)!  Imagine how much fun it would have been to follow the 1976 election if we'd had the internet back then, and a forum like this one.

[Mr. Morden]

The party breakdown is:
Democrats 45%
Republicans 36%
Independents 18%

Christie actually destroys Clinton among Independents, leading 47%-17%, but that leaves a lot of undecideds, and the total number of Independents isn't that great.  Clinton still leads by 1 point overall, because of the large number of Democrats, and the fact that she consolidates Democrats behind her better than Christie consolidates Republicans.

Age breakdown of Christie vs. Clinton:
18-45: Clinton +9
46-65: Christie +1
65+: Christie +11

Age breakdown of Paul vs. Clinton:
18-45: tie
46-65: Clinton +2
65+: Paul +11