NJ-Monmouth: Christie-lead drops to 20, as Democrats come home to Buono

[Tender Branson]

56-36 Christie

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[Maxwell]

He's still getting over a fifth of the Democratic vote, It's hard to believe he will lose. Nevertheless, It no longer seems possible for him to get over 60, though it probably never was.

[Rowan]

More Dems will probably come home as we get closer. Buono is currently at 71% of Dems, most likely she will end up with >80% of Dems.

Assuming the I and R numbers stayed the same(unlikely but for this exercise), if she consolidates to the following:

75%: 37% topline number
80%: 39% topline number
85%: 41% topline number
90%: 43% topline number
95%: 44% topline number

So, obviously she would need to make inroads with Independent voters. Let's assume Buono receives 85% of the Dem vote this year(from what I see, the most likely outcome). How much Independent vote would she need to win(assuming she gets the nominal 5% of the R vote)?

25%: 42% topline number
30%: 43% topline number
35%: 45% topline number
40%: 47% topline number
45%: 48% topline number
50%: 50% topline number

So she would need only 35% of the I vote to keep it to a single digit race and would need 50% to squeak by with a win. Unless, she bumped up her D vote to 90%(possible, but unlikely). So let's look at how much I vote she would need if her D vote was at 90%.

25%: 44% topline number
30%: 45% topline number
35%: 47% topline number
40%: 49% topline number
45%: 50% topline number
50%: 52% topline number

So if she gets 90% of the Dem vote, she could easily hold the race within 10 points by only getting 30% of the I vote. She would also need only 45% of the I vote to win.

Based on my running of the numbers, I would not be surprised if this ends up being a 55-45 race, because the D support will solidify. The only question is the turnout and whether the turnout model in this poll is correct or incorrect.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

She's tacked hard to the left at this point, which basically drives up Dem turnout while ensuring that Christie wins independents by a huge margin.

This race was over months ago and continues to be over. At this point, it's really about saving face and the State Senate, which she should do.

I think it winds up being something like 57-43 or thereabout

[Beet]

Hopefully Democrats realize that a vote for Christie at this point is just a vote for his presidential aspirations. It would be like voting for Mitt Romney in 2006.

[IceSpear]

Christie will win, but if he ends up getting less than 60% of the vote after all the bluster about sky high popularity and 40-50 point leads, it will look pretty bad for him.

[NewYorkExpress]

I'll go out on a limb and say 51 -46 Christie will be the final result... He's not going to lose, but you could see Tea parties voting for Bouno to derail a Christie 2016 campaign.

[Maxwell]

I'll go out on a limb and say 51 -46 Christie will be the final result... He's not going to lose, but you could see Tea parties voting for Bouno to derail a Christie 2016 campaign.

no.

[IceSpear]

I'll go out on a limb and say 51 -46 Christie will be the final result... He's not going to lose, but you could see Tea parties voting for Bouno to derail a Christie 2016 campaign.

no.

I've actually seen a few Freepers saying they were going to vote for Buono in an attempt to stop Christie's presidential campaign.

How many of them there actually are is anyone's guess, but the number is greater than 0.

[Miles]

I'll go out on a limb and say 51 -46 Christie will be the final result... He's not going to lose, but you could see Tea parties voting for Bouno to derail a Christie 2016 campaign.

no.

[RedSLC]

I'll go out on a limb and say 51 -46 Christie will be the final result... He's not going to lose, but you could see Tea parties voting for Bouno to derail a Christie 2016 campaign.

no.

At the absolute minimum, it would be a bare double digit victory margin.

[sg0508]

My guess at the beginning of the year was 57-42% as many democrats will come home in the end.  We'll see if I'm right.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

I like Christie as a person, as well as his passion for being a proud New Jerseyan, but i just think we are too far apart on economic and education policy.  At the same time, I didn't like Corzine or the corrupt people in the NJ Democratic Party that he surrounded himself with, including Buono. 

I'll probably go third party since Christie has it locked up. 

[ElectionsGuy]

I'll go out on a limb and say 51 -46 Christie will be the final result... He's not going to lose, but you could see Tea parties voting for Bouno to derail a Christie 2016 campaign.

Christie probably has a minimum of 55%, if he were to upset tea partiers (or already has) and they vote for Buono, they will look complete bafoons. Now, I don't think there are that many that would do that. It would probably be like 1-3% of republicans voting against him, I don't think it will have even a medium affect on the outcome.