Pennsylvania 2012 Why no Romney Effort?

[Badger]

I don't know why there are people that think it's stupid for Republican presidential candidates to contest PA, but think it's just fine that Democrats contest NC.

Because. In the last 20 years at least, when Democrats contested NC they made it genuninely close (not "relatively" close) and occassionally won. PA on the other hand.....

[barfbag]

I don't know why there are people that think it's stupid for Republican presidential candidates to contest PA, but think it's just fine that Democrats contest NC.

Because. In the last 20 years at least, when Democrats contested NC they made it genuninely close (not "relatively" close) and occassionally won. PA on the other hand.....

Pennsylvania had a rightward trend though in 2008 and 2012.

[Badger]

I don't know why there are people that think it's stupid for Republican presidential candidates to contest PA, but think it's just fine that Democrats contest NC.

Because. In the last 20 years at least, when Democrats contested NC they made it genuninely close (not "relatively" close) and occassionally won. PA on the other hand.....

Pennsylvania had a rightward trend though in 2008 and 2012.

Which of course proves absolutely nothing, towrads your point troll.

[barfbag]

I don't know why there are people that think it's stupid for Republican presidential candidates to contest PA, but think it's just fine that Democrats contest NC.

Because. In the last 20 years at least, when Democrats contested NC they made it genuninely close (not "relatively" close) and occassionally won. PA on the other hand.....

Pennsylvania had a rightward trend though in 2008 and 2012.

Which of course proves absolutely nothing, towrads your point troll.

Are you this hard on people from the other party? I think you're George Voinovich.

[J. J.]

The non-existent "Romney Surge" in October made the Romney team think Pennsylvania could be put in play. Democrats said he was desperate like McCain in '08, while after the election it was revealed they were going for a blow-out, not a back-up.


They legitimately thought they could snatch Pennsylvania to get 305 EVs(they assumed they would win FL, VA, NC, IO, NH, CO, and OH), assuming uniform national swing.

He had a surge which fizzled in the last week.

Yes, his PA numbers were showing it reasonably close and closing.  Turnout was also an issue.  2010 was also a GOP landslide in PA.  Corbett, who I am not a big fan of, cleaned up across the state.

[Badger]

The non-existent "Romney Surge" in October made the Romney team think Pennsylvania could be put in play. Democrats said he was desperate like McCain in '08, while after the election it was revealed they were going for a blow-out, not a back-up.


They legitimately thought they could snatch Pennsylvania to get 305 EVs(they assumed they would win FL, VA, NC, IO, NH, CO, and OH), assuming uniform national swing.

He had a surge which fizzled in the last week.

Yes, his PA numbers were showing it reasonably close and closing.  Turnout was also an issue.  2010 was also a GOP landslide in PA.  Corbett, who I am not a big fan of, cleaned up across the state.

The key word being "his" numbers, which unsurprisingly were shown to be only one step less ludicrously hackish that unskewedpolls.com, which is saying quite a lot. Every other pollster back in realityland showed PA out of reach.

[barfbag]

The non-existent "Romney Surge" in October made the Romney team think Pennsylvania could be put in play. Democrats said he was desperate like McCain in '08, while after the election it was revealed they were going for a blow-out, not a back-up.


They legitimately thought they could snatch Pennsylvania to get 305 EVs(they assumed they would win FL, VA, NC, IO, NH, CO, and OH), assuming uniform national swing.

He had a surge which fizzled in the last week.

Yes, his PA numbers were showing it reasonably close and closing.  Turnout was also an issue.  2010 was also a GOP landslide in PA.  Corbett, who I am not a big fan of, cleaned up across the state.

The key word being "his" numbers, which unsurprisingly were shown to be only one step less ludicrously hackish that unskewedpolls.com, which is saying quite a lot. Every other pollster back in realityland showed PA out of reach.

So the more liberal pollsters showed it out of reach. We get it.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Because Obama led in EVERY poll taken in the state and not always by a little.  I had it solid Obama from start to finish.  Some states out there are just static, you know where you are going to get your votes and you know what's available.  PA might be the most glaring example of this.  Romney went into the state at the end because his head was desperate and his heart was delusional.  Probably swung the state a point or two his way, as a matter of fact, but no more. 

[Badger]

The non-existent "Romney Surge" in October made the Romney team think Pennsylvania could be put in play. Democrats said he was desperate like McCain in '08, while after the election it was revealed they were going for a blow-out, not a back-up.


They legitimately thought they could snatch Pennsylvania to get 305 EVs(they assumed they would win FL, VA, NC, IO, NH, CO, and OH), assuming uniform national swing.

He had a surge which fizzled in the last week.

Yes, his PA numbers were showing it reasonably close and closing.  Turnout was also an issue.  2010 was also a GOP landslide in PA.  Corbett, who I am not a big fan of, cleaned up across the state.

The key word being "his" numbers, which unsurprisingly were shown to be only one step less ludicrously hackish that unskewedpolls.com, which is saying quite a lot. Every other pollster back in realityland showed PA out of reach.

So the more liberal pollsters showed it out of reach. We get it.

Corrected.

[Badger]

I don't know why there are people that think it's stupid for Republican presidential candidates to contest PA, but think it's just fine that Democrats contest NC.

Because. In the last 20 years at least, when Democrats contested NC they made it genuninely close (not "relatively" close) and occassionally won. PA on the other hand.....

Pennsylvania had a rightward trend though in 2008 and 2012.

Which of course proves absolutely nothing, towrads your point troll.

Are you this hard on people from the other party? I think you're George Voinovich.

I just don't suffer fools.

[barfbag]

I don't know why there are people that think it's stupid for Republican presidential candidates to contest PA, but think it's just fine that Democrats contest NC.

Because. In the last 20 years at least, when Democrats contested NC they made it genuninely close (not "relatively" close) and occassionally won. PA on the other hand.....

Pennsylvania had a rightward trend though in 2008 and 2012.

Which of course proves absolutely nothing, towrads your point troll.

Are you this hard on people from the other party? I think you're George Voinovich.

I just don't suffer fools.

So what do you think of left-wing hacks?

[Badger]

I don't know why there are people that think it's stupid for Republican presidential candidates to contest PA, but think it's just fine that Democrats contest NC.

Because. In the last 20 years at least, when Democrats contested NC they made it genuninely close (not "relatively" close) and occassionally won. PA on the other hand.....

Pennsylvania had a rightward trend though in 2008 and 2012.

Which of course proves absolutely nothing, towrads your point troll.

Are you this hard on people from the other party? I think you're George Voinovich.

I just don't suffer fools.

So what do you think of left-wing hacks?

At least they tend not to post their tripe on EVERY damn thread.

Hint, hint.

[barfbag]

I don't know why there are people that think it's stupid for Republican presidential candidates to contest PA, but think it's just fine that Democrats contest NC.

Because. In the last 20 years at least, when Democrats contested NC they made it genuninely close (not "relatively" close) and occassionally won. PA on the other hand.....

Pennsylvania had a rightward trend though in 2008 and 2012.

Which of course proves absolutely nothing, towrads your point troll.

Are you this hard on people from the other party? I think you're George Voinovich.

I just don't suffer fools.

So what do you think of left-wing hacks?

At least they tend not to post their tripe on EVERY damn thread.

Hint, hint.

None of them ever have?

[Likely Voter]

I think Obama underperformed in PA vs what another generic (white) Dem would do. Lets not forget that Obama was talking about PA when he made his "cling to their bibles and guns" comment. Hillary would easily reverse the trend and any GOPer going up against her would probably be throwing away money in PA.

[barfbag]

I think Obama underperformed in PA vs what another generic (white) Dem would do. Lets not forget that Obama was talking about PA when he made his "cling to their bibles and guns" comment. Hillary would easily reverse the trend and any GOPer going up against her would probably be throwing away money in PA.

No Pennsylvania is trending and the Democrats should start worrying. In fact it's trending twice as fast as Georgia according to the last election. We do cling to our bibles and guns. I grew up there. Clinton would do better than Obama, but the Democrats better hope it's not too late. The keystone state was only one point left of center last year. They better watch out. It's happening!

Pennsylvania is losing population in the west and it's caused a rightward trend throughout this century. They were leaning Democrat and now the western part of the state is leaning Republican.

[Badger]

I think Obama underperformed in PA vs what another generic (white) Dem would do. Lets not forget that Obama was talking about PA when he made his "cling to their bibles and guns" comment. Hillary would easily reverse the trend and any GOPer going up against her would probably be throwing away money in PA.

Pennsylvania is losing population in the west and it's caused a rightward trend throughout this century. They were leaning Democrat and now the western part of the state is leaning Republican.

Re-read these last two lines of your post and you'll realize why that's not happening soon.

[barfbag]

I think Obama underperformed in PA vs what another generic (white) Dem would do. Lets not forget that Obama was talking about PA when he made his "cling to their bibles and guns" comment. Hillary would easily reverse the trend and any GOPer going up against her would probably be throwing away money in PA.

Pennsylvania is losing population in the west and it's caused a rightward trend throughout this century. They were leaning Democrat and now the western part of the state is leaning Republican.

Re-read these last two lines of your post and you'll realize why that's not happening soon.

My post was only two lines long. Are you referring to the part where they're losing population?

[MalaspinaGold]

If the western part of the state is losing population and trending right, then there will be little change. If the trend continues, then the region would not have enough votes to matter electorally, is what badger is trying to say.

[ElectionsGuy]

What I think happened, was that the eastern side of Pennsylvania stayed largely the same. But the western side swung (or trended) far enough right, to combat the loses of population in some areas. Also, with the excuses, the "Obama underperformed with white voters" has been proven wrong/debunked as I've said many times before. The only racist region that I could think of would be the southwest, and even then, I would think most of them vote republican because of his environmental views.

Also, Pennsylvania broke the rule of getting more liberal when the election is more conservative. Generally, Pennsylvania has a history of getting more conservative in liberal elections and getting more liberal in conservative elections, looking like fool's gold. This time though, it got more conservative in a more conservative election. Not that it will continue, but some food for thought.

[Badger]

What I think happened, was that the eastern side of Pennsylvania stayed largely the same. But the western side swung (or trended) far enough right, to combat the loses of population in some areas.

This is incorrect. The Philly region (primarily the surrounding suburban counties) have grown steadily in population, particularly compared to the State as a whole, and especially Western PA. Likewise, Democratic registration in SE PA boomed over the last two decades.

It's a little (emphasis here) like VA: The fastest growing area of the state (NOVA) is also that where the Democrats share of registered voters is growing fastest. Likewise, the once traditional Democratic area (SW coal country VA) where Republicans are making the fastest inroads is also the region with the lowest population growth in the state.

[barfbag]

What I think happened, was that the eastern side of Pennsylvania stayed largely the same. But the western side swung (or trended) far enough right, to combat the loses of population in some areas.

This is incorrect. The Philly region (primarily the surrounding suburban counties) have grown steadily in population, particularly compared to the State as a whole, and especially Western PA. Likewise, Democratic registration in SE PA boomed over the last two decades.

It's a little (emphasis here) like VA: The fastest growing area of the state (NOVA) is also that where the Democrats share of registered voters is growing fastest. Likewise, the once traditional Democratic area (SW coal country VA) where Republicans are making the fastest inroads is also the region with the lowest population growth in the state.

It's similar as far as which areas of the states are trending and why. I do see Pennsylvania trending to the right though. One point left of center is as far to the right as they've been since 1948.

[TJ in Oregon]

Another way of thinking about the rightward trend of western PA is about age. When the steel industry crashed, it meant the Pittsburgh area lost a cohort that came of age in the 70s. This compounded and means fewer young adults today as well. Now with the Democratic Greatest Generation dying, the conservative Silent Generation is overrepresented in SW PA. I think this explains its demographic trends about as well as anything.

[barfbag]

Another way of thinking about the rightward trend of western PA is about age. When the steel industry crashed, it meant the Pittsburgh area lost a cohort that came of age in the 70s. This compounded and means fewer young adults today as well. Now with the Democratic Greatest Generation dying, the conservative Silent Generation is overrepresented in SW PA. I think this explains its demographic trends about as well as anything.

Very true! If you go to Three Rivers Casino it's almost all seniors. Granted that's a casino but living there most of my life I can tell you there's a higher age population.

[Badger]

Another way of thinking about the rightward trend of western PA is about age. When the steel industry crashed, it meant the Pittsburgh area lost a cohort that came of age in the 70s. This compounded and means fewer young adults today as well. Now with the Democratic Greatest Generation dying, the conservative Silent Generation is overrepresented in SW PA. I think this explains its demographic trends about as well as anything.

Yeah, PA is only slightly behind FL for % of seniors, surprisingly. IIRC that elderly population is particularly slanted in Western PA.

[Calthrina950]

In hindsight, the concern on here over Pennsylvania back in 2013 was justified, as made obvious by Trump's win here over Clinton in 2016. And Biden won the state back this year, but the trends in Western Pennsylvania-as discussed by illegal operation-and those in Eastern Pennsylvania-as discussed by Badger-have accelerated greatly in the seven years since this thread was created and active.