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  CO-Quinnipiac: Clinton leads Cruz but loses to Christie; Biden in bad shape
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Author Topic: CO-Quinnipiac: Clinton leads Cruz but loses to Christie; Biden in bad shape  (Read 2405 times)
Devils30
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« Reply #25 on: August 24, 2013, 11:58:53 pm »
« edited: August 25, 2013, 12:31:32 am by Devils30 »

There is no way Tancredo is within 1 point of Hickenlooper. Also, Obama's approval is not 41% when its 45-47% nationally in a state that was D+1. And if Clinton is tied with the white vote she wins CO by much more than 3 points, probably 9-12. Obama lost whites 54-44 and won by over 5%.

For some reason Quinnipiac polls always sold Obama short here in 2012 while giving him a larger edge than he should have had in OH/FL. Hopefully PPP will do Colorado soon. I'd suspect CO trends R just because Hillary would have more room to grow in FL, VA, NC. Either way, the 2016 Dem will need a big advertising blitz here.
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #26 on: August 25, 2013, 08:12:24 am »

There is no way Tancredo is within 1 point of Hickenlooper. Also, Obama's approval is not 41% when its 45-47% nationally in a state that was D+1. And if Clinton is tied with the white vote she wins CO by much more than 3 points, probably 9-12. Obama lost whites 54-44 and won by over 5%.

For some reason Quinnipiac polls always sold Obama short here in 2012 while giving him a larger edge than he should have had in OH/FL. Hopefully PPP will do Colorado soon. I'd suspect CO trends R just because Hillary would have more room to grow in FL, VA, NC. Either way, the 2016 Dem will need a big advertising blitz here.

Or of course a large amount of donations before the campaign begins. The reason why Colorado has trended from the Republicans is that a majority of the people live in one area and that area has attracted the primary residences and businesses of made men and women that are gay or liberal. Without that place, Colorado would probably be between the size of Idaho or Nebraska as there is one other midsized city and two other small ones and there wouldn't be the likes Perlmutter. Those "1%er of 1%ers" haven't given away large amounts of their fortunes just for Colorado to be considered Republican Flyover just when things started to get good there.

Of course Demographics is first and foremost, but there are places like Arizona and Texas where the Democrats are leaderless and at least 50 and room percent of the population think they still are some bizarre leftist group that is trying to ruin their life (as if it wasn't already for many of them).


I take solace in the fact that Obama, as late as 2011 was worse of in Colorado than he was in many red states and still came within a point of his relative victory margin in 2008. And another Q-poll has similar numbers for Hillary in Iowa. I really doubt that states like Arkansas or Georgia will actually come through if states like Oregon, Iowa and Colorado don't.

This map




is more believable than this map



Then again, Hillary might be an candidate that makes middle age voters "come home" to the parties of their youth and make young people think that older people are more of threat because they hogging social security and not because they are hogging economic opportunity.
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barfbag
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« Reply #27 on: August 25, 2013, 08:54:34 am »

2008 definitely showed Clinton is vulnerable.
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Devils30
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« Reply #28 on: August 25, 2013, 03:26:44 pm »

States tend to revert back to normal once the campaign heats up. Look at how Romney led Obama in all NH polls before the primary but afterwards it remained at its usual D+1 level. In 2008 Obama looked better in North Dakota but the final results kept it solidly R.
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barfbag
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« Reply #29 on: August 25, 2013, 03:44:18 pm »

States tend to revert back to normal once the campaign heats up. Look at how Romney led Obama in all NH polls before the primary but afterwards it remained at its usual D+1 level. In 2008 Obama looked better in North Dakota but the final results kept it solidly R.

This is a good point.
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opebo
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« Reply #30 on: August 25, 2013, 03:58:42 pm »

CO will end up voting D - it always polls more R than it actually ends up voting.
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