Kerry/Sebelius win in 2004.
Kerry barely pulls out the upset againt Bush, winning the deciding state of Ohio by fewer than 5000 to prevent the election from being thrown into the House.
By January 2005, an Iraqi constitutional government will be in place, and most of the messy work will have been done so that law and order will be in place for the US to pull out and transfer all authority to the Iraqi Federation. Kerry will get to bring the troops home, and take credit for it. The economy will be solidly in recovery as well, something that Kerry will also take credit for. His approval ratings will soar.
In the time between then and the midterm elections, the following will occur:
1. Kerry will try to roll back the Bush tax cuts but get nowhere with the Republican Congress.
2. No rebound for US manufacturing or IT jobs - millions of Americans will have been out of work for five years or more by this point. Kerry will suggest national health insurance as a solution, to lower the cost of hiring American workers.
3. Kerry will try to introduce a national health insurace plan, which will also go nowhere with Congress.
4. Not a single Kerry judicial appointee will be confirmed by Congress. Not one.
The Democrats will regain control of both houses of Congress in 2006. Healthcare is a major campaign issue, as well as backlash against the obstructionist Congress. Republicans are tossed out by the dozen in the Northeast, Midwest, and on the West Coast.
The follwing happen after the midterm elections:
1. A major terrorist attack on US soil. Conservatives will blame Kerry for security lapses.
2. Collapse of the Iraqi Federation into civil war. Conservatives will blame Kerry for pulling out of Iraq too soon, whereas Liberals will blame Bush for "destabilizing" Iraq in the first place.
By early 2007, Iran has become heavily involved in the Iraqi Civil War. Republicans urge Kerry to take action and send US troops to bring back peace. Kerry strikes a compromise with Republicans: he will agree to military action IF the Republicans support his healthcare legislation (he will need at least some Republican support to get it passed) AND stop blocking the nomination of his judges. Republicans, realizing that their obstructionism cost them many seats in 2006, agree to this.
By 2008, we will be stuck in a TRUE quagmire in the Persian Gulf region, our economy will be straining to implement a national healthcare plan, and our budget deficit will be out of control. Kerry will be seen as a traitor by the Left, and an incompetent, big-government, tax-and-spend Liberal by the right. The Republicans easily win back the White House in '08, as Conservatives rally against Kerry, and Liberal votes are siphoned away by Green candidate Michael Moore.
that seems quite possible
